Today on the Gator Country message boards a question was posed to me by user Blackbird68:
“Maybe it is just a perception, but subjectively it appears that we have had difficulty guarding the three point shot most of the year. I am not sure the analytics support that conclusion, but if so what do you think the problem is and can it be corrected? Thanks.”
It was such a good question, and one that people had been talking about, that I thought an entire article responding to this would be in order. Let’s see what I can do to answer this question about Florida’s three-point defense and whether or not they are struggling to guard the three-point line.
This gets into a great conversation because it brings in a lot of analytics and what those numbers can tell us–and how it might match or go against the eye test.
When it comes to three-point defense a great place to start is three-point attempts. The best three-point defense isn’t the team that allows the lowest percentage–it’s the team that doesn’t give up three-point shots at all. The Gators are currently 99th in the country in three-point attempts divided by field goal attempts against (per KenPom), which is a solid number–but one that isn’t as good as last year when the Gators were one of the best teams in the country at limiting opponent three-point attempts coming in at 13th. Florida might be a solid defense at taking away three-point attempts entirely, but they’re not as good as last year when they were elite. Now, let’s talk pace.
This year Florida is playing at a very high pace and have had some of the highest possession games in the country coming in at 15th in the country in tempo–up from 70th last year. Why does this matter? Let’s take a look at three-point attempts allowed.
Last year the Gators allowed 5.8 made threes a game. This year–7.4. Right there, you can see how the eye test of the person submitting the question could be back up by numbers–the Gators are allowing 1.6 more threes per game this year, a fairly significant leap. However, the Gators are also playing much faster–and more possessions means more made shots for and more shots against, and Florida playing the 15th highest possession games in the country means they are naturally going to allow a higher number of threes in the same way they’re also going to allow a higher number of rebounds, steals, blocks, and every other counting stat. This is why you’ll always see me use tempo-free stats such as “rates,” as it is the best way to even out statistics between teams that play at different tempos.
So, we’ve talked three-point attempts, we have talked tempo, and we have talked total three-point makes–but what about percentage?
This is where things get fairly interesting, and where we’re going to get to the heart of what I think is happening with Florida’s three-point defense.
On the surface the Gators are 265th in the country in three-point percentage defense and teams are shooting 35.1% from deep against them. As a reference point, the national average this season is 33.4%. That’s a pretty significant difference between Florida’s defense and the national average so once again, does this mean the Gator Country user who mentioned they thought the Gators are struggling with three-point defense is correct? Not so fast.
Allow me to ask a semi-rhetorical question:
What is the goal of a defense when it comes to defending shooters?
This isn’t meant to be some trick question–the goal of a defense when it comes to defending shooters should be, first of all, what we talked about before–to eliminate attempts all together. Second of all–it should be to closely contest the shot and make it as difficult as possible for the shooter to make it.
For that reason, instead of looking at the end outcome of whether or not a shot went in, we should look at whether or not the shot was closely guarded. This isn’t something you can look at on any regular website but you can see it on a tool called Synergy Sports Tech, a tool used by every college and NBA team. On average in college basketball, 55% of catch and shoot threes are wide open, while 45% are closely guarded.*
*You may remember me citing this breakdown in the summer when I talked about how last year the Gators didn’t struggle to make shots offensively–they struggled to create them.
Knowing that, on average, 55% of catch and shoot threes are wide open and 45% are closely guarded, you’d hope to see the Gators somewhere in that area.
Here’s the thing, they’re not anywhere near the national average…
…they are much better.
When it comes to Florida’s three-point catch and shoot defense, 42% have been wide open, and 58% have been closely guarded. This is not only better, but significantly better than the national average. This is where things get truly unlucky for the Gators, and here is where the most interesting number of the whole article comes out.
On closely guarded catch and shoot threes, the national average is 31.4%.
Currently, Florida’s opponents are shooting 36.5% on closely guarded catch and shoot threes, making Florida one of the worst closely guarded catch and shoot three teams in the country. In my opinion, that is just truly awful luck, and something that should normalize.
The initial question posed to me was regarding whether or not Florida was struggling to guard the three-point line. A defense’s goal when it comes to three-point defense is to either eliminate attempts altogether, and if the three-point attempt does go up–the goal is to closely contest that shot. Well, Florida has done a solid job of eliminating three-point attempts, and they have done a tremendous job of contesting three-point shots. In my opinion–that is good three-point defense. Right now the results aren’t there–but I don’t think opponents will shoot such a high percentage on closely guarded threes for much longer. Could there be more the Gators do to guard the three-point line? Could they be more aware of opponents that are lethal shooters that want to get open? Could they guard actions designed to get three-point looks better? Certainly–but right now, I would suggest that by the numbers stated in this article the Gators are a team that does a solid job of guarding the three-point line that has simply been unlucky.