With a dominant win over Pittsburgh the Florida Gators (4-1) have advanced in the NIT Season Tip-Off to take on the Baylor Bears (5-0) in the event’s finale.
Baylor, currently ranked 13th in the AP Poll, will almost certainly be the highest quality team on Florida’s non-conference schedule and the work the Gators did to earn this right by taking care of business against Pittsburgh cannot be overstated. Pittsburgh will now have to play Oregon State, currently 170th in KenPom, in the third place game in the NIT Tip-Off which means the Gators not only earned a chance at a high quad-1 game against Baylor, but avoided a low-quality game against Oregon State that wouldn’t do much good if they won, but would do a whole lot of bad if they lost.
Under head coach Scott Drew the Baylor Bears have become a consistent winner who continually reloads with talent through high school recruiting, the transfer portal, and development. They were picked to finish 4th in the Big 12 preseason poll behind Kansas, Houston, and Texas, and with the Big 12 arguably being the best conference in college basketball even a 4th place finish could mean a very high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Starting 5-0, the Bears have wins over Auburn, Oregon State, UMKC, Gardner Webb, and division-II John Brown. Their win against Auburn was a 88-82 shoutout where ultimately Baylor’s shotmakers took control and gave them the win in the final minutes. It was a perfect microcosm of what Baylor has become–a highly talented offensive team that wants to get up and down and make a lot of threes. Early in Scott Drew’s tenure the Bears were known as a grind-it-out, physical team that wanted to play slow, but in recent years they have completely rebranded and it has made them much more successful. It is early to be citing KenPom numbers (there are still some preseason predictions blended in with the current results) the Bears are 6th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so they’re trying to win with their scoring.
So far this season the offensive attack has been led by Ja’Kobe Walter, the 8th ranked player in the 2023 class and one of the highest rated recruits to ever get to Baylor. Watching Walter play, it’s easy to see why he was a McDonald’s All-American and a player expected to go one-and-done in the draft. First, he’s an athletic guard at 6’5” with bounce, immediately checking a lot of boxes for dominance in modern basketball. However, he’s not just raw talent as he already has a full menu of moves to break down his defender once he gets the dribble going and it seems like he is getting into the paint whenever he wants. The cherry on top is the 48% he’s shooting from the three-point line to start the season (12-25) making him an even more challenging cover. He’s averaging 19.2 points per game this season to lead the way for Baylor, so look for him to be a focal point. Florida was just able to keep a talented 6’5” freshman at bay in Pittsburgh’s Carlton Carrington and they’ll have to do it again against an even more talented Walter. Look for Pullin to come into the game and play physical point of attack defense just like he did with great success against Carrington.
Baylor’s perimeter attack doesn’t stop with Walter as they also have a pair of talented guards in RayJ Dennis (pronounced Ray-Jay) and Jayden Nunn, transfers from Toledo and VCU. In addition to the veteran savvy they use to compliment Walter’s youthful exuberance, they are speedy guards who get downhill with the dribble. Dennis was extremely productive at Toledo last season scoring 19.5 points and adding 5.8 assists per game and he has been excellent so far for Baylor averaging 11.8 points and 5.6 assists per game, limiting the kinds of isolation possessions he had at Toledo and focusing on being a true point guard for the Bears. Nunn is someone who is a pure scorer as an off guard and he’s added 13.2 points per game. Dennis, Nunn, and Walter will play a bulk of the minutes at the 1, 2, and 3 spots and much of Baylor’s attack is centered around these three getting downhill and breaking down defenses and Florida’s individual defense will be tested.
With much of Baylor’s offensive load on the shoulders of their perimeter players their power forwards and centers are out there to set big screens before breaking hard to the rim to be available for rolls and dump off passes. 7’0”, 235 pound Yves Missi has been a notable addition as a freshman and while he doesn’t offer a lot offensively he is a massive screen setter and he’ll be able to compete on the glass with the feisty Gators. The Bears also get size from 6’9”, 225 Jalen Bridges who often plays the power forward spot–meaning they will match up with Florida’s excellent size quite well. Depth is also a strength of Baylor’s frontcourt with 6’8”, 250 pound Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, 6’8”, 235 pound Caleb Lohner, and 6’10, 230 pound Josh Ojianwuna all providing capable minutes off the bench. This will be the first of Florida’s opponents to bring legitimate size in the frontcourt which could be a challenge for the Gators given that it seems unlikely that Micah Handlogten will be able to play following an ankle injury against Pittsburgh. If that’s the case Baylor will have more bodies available to roll out in what should be a physical game which could be a concern from a Florida standpoint.
Despite the size and physicality present on Baylor’s roster they actually have been a rather mediocre defensive rebounding team ranking 183rd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. If Handlogten was healthy it might be a game where the Gators do really well on the offensive glass, though with Handlogten out they only managed 7 offensive rebounds against the Panthers.
Florida is coming off a very good offensive game against Pittsburgh and they’ll now see a Baylor team that hasn’t been particularly tight defensively. The Bears are built for offensive efficiency and they can score it at will, but they will give up a lot of points on the other end. Coming up with a scheme to slow down Baylor’s guards should be the top priority for the Gators preparing for this game and if they’re able to do so, they could come up with a marquee win that would be extremely valuable in March.
Florida and Baylor will play on November 24th at 5:30 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN.