I’ve seen one or two folks getting optimistic about UF’s chances against Georgia this weekend, but I want to caution you against getting your hopes up too much. I have been accused more than once of being a Debbie Downer, so I can take it if you don’t like what I’m about to say.
In some ways, Florida did better than expected last year. They fell behind 21-0, but then they played Georgia essentially even the rest of the way. The final was 42-20, which meant the Gators covered the 23-point spread.
Except, it was more like they had a really great first-12-minutes-of-the-third-quarter where they went on a 17-0 run but then got outscored 42-3 in the rest of the game. Georgia’s defense really had Florida’s number from the start. The first play saw Billy Napier want to take a vertical shot, but it was one of his frustrating plays where only two guys actually went out for patterns. UGA dropped seven into coverage, ensuring there was no prayer of a completion, and Anthony Richardson scrambled around for a while before being stopped for a mere four yards.
If you want something to hang some hope on, it’s that even during that good run after halftime, it came largely on the ground. Richardson was sailing passes left and right, though critically not on the coverage bust that got Xzavier Henderson a 78-yard touchdown reception.
Graham Mertz is far more accurate than AR has ever been, so some of those open receivers should actually snare some passes this year. And hey, the point spread is more than a touchdown closer this year with the Bulldogs being a 14.5-point favorite as I type this. I’m not the only one pricing in some better chances at offensive success this season.
And if you want another shot of sunshine before I bring things down, last year’s top receivers were Ricky Pearsall, Justin Shorter, and Henderson. Shorter was tall but not dynamic, and Henderson had little to recommend other than straight-line speed. Which, that did work that one time on a straight go route up the sideline, but it didn’t do a whole lot else.
Pearsall is back this year and probably a little better, but now he’s paired with Eugene Wilson and Arlis Boardingham. Wilson gives the UGA defense more to think about than anyone since Kadarius Toney in Florida’s last win in the series, and Boardingham is a different kind of threat than Shorter (his closest comp in the trio I just mentioned) coming from the tight end position. If Andy Jean is back available, that’d be a bonus.
Here’s the problem though: Florida’s defense stinks away from the Swamp. Its best showing was against Utah and its null offense, the first play of the game aside. The Utes have nothing going for them on that side of the ball, which lowered the degree of difficulty.
But at Kentucky? And at South Carolina? It was awful. Just awful. And two turnovers aside, last year’s defense was awful in Jacksonville.
I can’t believe in the possibility of a Gator win until I see the defense perform well away from home. Last year I think the problem was of personnel and coordinating; this year it’s mostly youth. It’s a lot easier for younger and more inexperienced players to play in front of a friendly crowd backed by a lot of noise throwing off the offense. I can’t remember a younger UF defense, and I was on campus in the fall of 2007. It’s so, so young.
The best chance for Florida would be Georgia having another of its slow starts, and the Gators pouncing on the opportunity like they did against Tennessee. The thing is, nearly every one of those slow starts has been like a snowball rolling downhill, and the Bulldogs eventually overwhelmed their opponents. All of Kirby Smart’s Georgia teams have been good for one or two total off weeks, but they might’ve used that already against Auburn.
To be clear, it’s not hopeless. If Florida plays at the top end of its potential and UGA plays at the lower end of its potential, then UF can come away with a win.
Mike Bobo is notorious for forgetting to run the ball at times, and the Gators’ run defense will be stressed more in this one than the pass defense will be with Brock Bowers out. If Smart at some point whacks Bobo up side the head (verbally, over the headset) and tells him to pound the rock or else he loses a week of Zaxby’s privilages in the team offices, then that’d be really bad news for UF. The better scenario is one where Bobo gets lost in his passing play sheet like an eight-year-old trying to reorganize his baseball cards and UF’s inside linebackers get a lower degree of difficulty.
There’s an old adage about rebuilding sports teams. First you lost big, then you lose close, then you win close, and then you win big. Florida lost big last year. There was a nice run there for most of the third quarter, but otherwise it was a very big Georgia win. If the Gators can get to losing close this year, given the outrageous success in talent identification under Napier so far and the highly rated recruiting class on tap, then that’ll be enough.
A win would be a surprise, not a shock. But it still is well under 50% that UF could pull it off, so measure this one more by how the team looks than the final score. If the defense is aggressive but whiffs on some big plays, and the offense spreads things out and tries to go vertical like in its last game but can’t quite execute, then that’s losing with honor. If the defense gets carved up again and the offense turtles into conservatism, then that’ll raise a lot of questions outside of the 20+ point margin of loss such a scenario promises.