Assessing Billy Napier’s rebuild at the halfway point of his second season is in a lot of ways an assessment of what problems he’s solved and which are still left to go. It’s no secret that he inherited a program full of issues, and it’s impossible to solve them all at once.
Last year after the Texas A&M game, I slapped a “fireman” label on Napier because of how he’d been methodically putting out fires ever since his arrival. For one more week, the problems that looked fixed then appeared to stay fixed given the blowout win over South Carolina that was to come. Then the bottom suddenly fell out again with the subsequent loss to Vandy, and an ugly and very shorthanded bowl outing left everyone with a sour taste after the season.
That piece is something of a time capsule, as the recruiting section talks about Florida losing out on Jaden Rashada and Cormani McClain to Miami. One or two things happened in their recruiting stories after the November 9 publishing date.
Recruiting is, however, an even brighter spot than we knew at the time. As of last week, Florida had played 11 true freshmen in every game. That was the most of any program in the country and four more than second-place Clemson. The figure doesn’t even include Eugene Wilson, who’s missed time to injury but has been featured when healthy.
The 2023 class had to be on the smaller side because the mass exodus of former Mullen recruits to the NFL and portal necessitated a large transfer class. The hit rate has proven to be quite high already, and these dudes haven’t even been on campus for that long. And then the 2024 class currently sits at third in the 247 Sports Composite both in overall points and average player rating. The fire in the talent acquisition department remains well and truly out.
The second fire I referred to then was the return game, which was underwhelming and penalty prone in the first half of 2022. It’s not a fire now, necessarily, in that UF is just not trying to do much with it. The Gators are dead last in the SEC with just 1.1 kickoff return attempts per game. They are tied for third in punt returns attempted per game at 1.7, but they’re second-to-last in average punt return yardage.
Special teams on the whole has been a problem, with return coverage the only exception. Florida is first in the conference in kickoff return average allowed by a healthy margin, in fact. However special teams flags were a problem again to start the year, and just getting a full 11 guys out there every time hasn’t been guaranteed.
I don’t need to run down everything from that old article, but I will note that I was cautiously optimistic at the time about third down defense. It was improving, and it was good for one more week. Then UF allowed 50% or more against Vanderbilt, FSU, and Oregon State to show nothing was fixed at all.
Florida has been much better in that respect this season. The Gators have been rather boom-or-bust, with Tennessee and South Carolina above 50% but everyone else at 23% or below. It’s been much more boom than bust, however.
The 2023 campaign has seen some in-season progress. Special teams has quieted down over time as a problem. It’d be good to see them string a few clean special teams games in a row to solidify the improvement, but it’s no longer a five-alarm fire like it was against Utah.
The team did finally pick up another road win after last year’s A&M game at South Carolina last weekend, but they needed some help from a mediocre opponent. Carolina has some terrific players but is not a good team overall. Bully for the Gators to take advantage of that fact, but defensive performance away from home especially remains a challenge.
A lot of the defensive issues against the Gamecocks came down to either the great offensive players making great plays or simply young players making mistakes of youth. The latter isn’t going to go away for how many first and second-year players appear on the field. That said, inside linebacker play specifically has been outstanding at home and disastrous on the road, and closing that gap has to be a major focus from here.
I agree with Steve Spurrier that Napier called his best game of offense last weekend. Again, a bad defense helped out with the results. The process of getting those results was much better though, as he repeatedly exploited consistently poor coverage on Ricky Pearsall and expanded the pass attack in general.
Too often when Napier wants to take shots downfield, he’ll send just two players out on vertical routes with a motion man settling down in the flat as a safety valve. Against South Carolina, there were far more plays than normal with three or four players heading out more than six yards downfield.
Plus, Napier’s games where he hammers on the run too much against stacked boxes have largely been when Wilson was out. The team’s two losses are the tell. The Gators were pass-oriented against Utah from the start despite not falling behind by multiple scores until midway through the second quarter. They were more run oriented against Kentucky throughout despite falling behind by two scores less than ten minutes into the game. Wilson, while not truly featured yet, was available against the Utes. He was out against the Wildcats.
The offense is a completely different beast with Pearsall and Wilson both out there with an emerging Arlis Boardingham at tight end. Those dudes are too good, with Graham Mertz too reliable a triggerman, to have a McElwain-caliber 19 points per game through four FBS opponents. UF scored more in two games against Vandy and Carolina (79 points) than in those first four FBS games combined (76). Those successes were against a pair of awful defenses, but especially in the second contest, the attack did look different to the eye.
It’ll be a tough march to the end of the season, so there is just as much risk of this piece getting out-of-date within a month as last year’s article on progress. A truly good team is in there, but youth and inconsistency probably won’t allow it to blossom until next season at the earliest.
For Napier himself, the question is whether he can coax consistency out of his team at any point. Many an aspiring big-time coach has had some highs but mixed with too many lows to break through and win championships.
There was never any world where the 2023 Gators were going to be title-worthy, but more consistently hitting the higher end of their potential would be a good sign for the future. Fans have gotten whiplash from the team beating Utah and cratering against Kentucky, or following up big wins against A&M and Carolina with a loss to Vandy, or beating Tennessee and then underperforming against Charlotte and UK again.
There is just about nothing else Napier can do from here to season’s end to prove progress than to be more consistent. It’s one thing we’ve yet to see from his administration, which is saying something because it feels like we’ve seen nearly everything at least once. Playing well, by the team’s own standards and abilities, three or more weeks in a row would go a long way towards building confidence for 2024.