Playing without their leader Colin Castleton who is out with a broken hand the Gators will be in tough Saturday when they head to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Losing Castleton on Wednesday against Ole Miss was a devastating blow to Florida’s NCAA Tournament chances but they’ll still try to rally and make a run–starting with Saturday’s game.
Florida (14-12, 7-6 SEC) is actually ahead of Arkansas (17-9, 6-7 SEC) in league standings, though Arkansas is considerably better in the NCAA’s NET Rankings at 21st and is also much better in KenPom at 22nd. Everything suggests that Arkansas is better than their SEC record suggests so the Gators will have a difficult challenge facing them on Saturday. According to Bracket Matrix the Razorbacks are currently a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and that’s far from a comfortable spot which isn’t where they thought they’d be entering the season.
Arkansas started the season #10 in the AP Poll sporting a talented roster with three top-25 recruits and a couple elite transfers that were sought after by the best programs in the country. Unfortunately, injuries struck early. First, it was Nick Smith. Smith is a projected top-5 NBA Draft pick who started the season sidelined, and only returned for a few games before ending up back on bench with injury. They also lost 6’10” shotmaking forward Trevon Brazile before SEC play began, hurting their frontcourt depth. These injuries were a tough blow, but the Razorbacks still have plenty of talent and the results have lacked relative to expectation.
Arkansas’ struggles also haven’t helped them when it came to Nick Smith’s desire to return from injury. While rehabbing, Smith went to LA to work out, and there was word that he was totally healthy but had chosen to prepare for the NBA Draft instead of returning to Arkansas and risking further injury. With Arkansas struggling, the desire for Smith to return might not have been there. Ultimately he did decide to return to Fayetteville, but things haven’t gone according to plan. He was 2-7 from the field against Mississippi State in a loss, and then in Arkansas’ most recent game he only saw the floor for 4 minutes, turning the ball over twice in that time before being benched.
The Nick Smith situation is the biggest storyline related to Arkansas basketball right now because he is a superstar talent that might play, might be injured, or might be totally healthy but choose to sit out anyways. Florida won’t be sure if they’ll be seeing Smith on Saturday for a number of reasons, and whether or not he’s active or 100% could have a huge impact on how this one shakes out. If Smith does play and does what he’s capable of, the Razorbacks have one of the most electric guards in the country. At 6’5” with a lethal first step Smith is a tough cover and while his jumper hasn’t fallen at a great rate in the games he has played this season he was known for being an above-average shooter in high school.
In addition to Smith, the top recruits brought in by head coach Eric Musselman are Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh, both who are 6’7”, versatile wings. Black is more of an offensive player who brings ball handling at 6’7” that you don’t normally see, and it’s the skill that has him as a projected first round NBA Draft pick. Black has had a tremendous season averaging 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, touching all elements of the game. As a freshman he is occasionally prone to some erratic plays offensively or a missed rotation on the defensive end, but overall he has been tremendous and his talent will be on display Saturday.
Jordan Walsh is more impactful on the defensive end and brings toughness and physicality to whatever matchup he has. With long arms and a 205 pound frame he’s able to hang in pretty much whatever matchup he’s needed to and he was been a huge part of Arkansas’ defensive success. According to KenPom the Razorbacks are 11th in the country in defensive efficiency and Walsh has played a huge role in that accomplishment.
While it’s the freshmen that highlight the Arkansas roster their best player has been a transfer–Ricky Council. Council came to Fayetteville from Wichita State and has thrived in the new system averaging 17 points and 3 assists per game, arguably playing as one of the best transfers in the country. The 6’6” wing is best getting downhill, something that many of Arkansas’ offensive sets are designed to do. Council isn’t much of a perimeter shooter, but even without the threat of a jumper he’s able to get into the paint at will.
What jumps out about Arkansas and what makes them so effective on the defensive end is their length. They often play a lineup of Davonte Davis (6’4”), Ricky Council (6’6”), Anthony Black (6’7”), Jordan Walsh (6’7), and Makhel Mitchell (6’10”) and that length across the board makes it extremely difficult to make simple passes or get into the lane against them. This length also allows the Razorbacks to get steals that end in easy buckets on the other end, showcasing the athleticism that’s throughout the roster.
Arkansas’ struggles this year have come on the offensive end, and it all starts with shooting. Currently the Razorbacks are 331st in the country in three-point percentage, and to reinforce the point that they struggle to shoot–they’re 347th in the country in three-point attempts which shows their reluctance to even take those shots. Ideally the Razorbacks would have some perimeter shooting to space the floor for their elite drivers but because they lack top end catch and shoot players opponents have been able to pack the paint and dare Arkansas to shoot from the perimeter. Florida’s defensive success is all about keeping opponents out of the paint, so they could have success against a Razorbacks team that isn’t built to punish them from the outside.
Entering Saturday’s game the biggest question for the Gators is how they’re going to be able to generate points without Colin Castleton. This is a Florida team that has been poor on the offensive end–and that’s with an elite scorer in Colin Castleton. Without him the Gators will have to dramatically change up their offensive strategy and against a stout Arkansas defense that could make for some frustrating possessions.
The Gators and Razorbacks will tip off at 2 PM ET on February 18th with the game televised on ESPN 2.