Hello!
Welcome, once again, to the Around The Hoop newsletter, where–quite frankly, I wish I could be writing some more positive pieces to hit your inbox every Thursday morning!
It seems like the Gators continue to get blasted on Wednesday night games, much like they just did against Alabama (a 97-69 loss), but I’m here to share my thoughts on the team no matter what happens.
Here’s what I’m thinking about when it comes to the orange and blue.
Florida needs (needed) to steal a game they weren’t expected to win.
There is a thought out there that the Gators just need to win the games they’re expected to win the rest of the way and that will lead to an NCAA Tournament, something that was recently echoed by Todd Golden at a press conference.
I do not think I agree. Right now the Gators are at 2-9 in quad-1 games, the games that are most important when it comes to a resume. They currently only have two more quad-1 games remaining–not counting the SEC Tournament. They will be projected to win one of those, against Kentucky at home, and they’ll be projected to lose the other–a road game at Arkansas. That would leave the Gators at 3-10 in quad-1 games, and likely it would keep them about where they are right now in the NET–in the low 40s.
Is that an NCAA Tournament roster? I’m really not sure, and we’ll have to see how other bubble teams look, but I think no. That is going to put the Gators in a position where they’ll need to win multiple games in the SEC Tournament, and that is not all a comfortable place to be. For that reason, it would have really been nice to take a quad-1 game against either Kentucky or Kansas State (easier said than done, I know), but we’re now in a position where a road contest at Arkansas is not a must win–but it’s one they desperately need.
There is also one more side to this–the Gators can’t lose a game they’re not supposed to. That means they need to go 6-0 in their non-quad-1 games the rest of the way which include Vanderbilt (who just beat Tennessee, by the way) Georgia, Ole Miss, and LSU. A slip up in one of those could be extremely bad, and those teams are absolutely capable of taking a game off the Gators. This is a stressful situation for the Gators and it looks like they played like that against the Crimson Tide.
Colin Castleton is playing like he knows how dire the situation is.
I’m writing this very late on Wednesday night after the Gators got pounded by Alabama. Despite the lopsided loss, Castleton played inspired basketball finishing with 29 points and 10 rebounds. In Florida’s previous game, a loss to Kentucky, Castleton had 25 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists. Unfortunately, his teammates didn’t play well enough to parlay those performances into wins.
Castleton is playing outstanding basketball–arguably some of the best of his career. You have to wonder if he knows that things are getting to be do or die and he’s leaving it all out on the floor. Some players might be playing a bit tight because of how stressful things are getting but it looks like Castleton is using the adversity to fuel his fire. You have to respect how well he is playing, even in a loss.
The Alabama loss illuminated that the Gators lack some elite size and athleticism.
Florida has players who compete and play hard, but they are undersized and under athletic at multiple positions around the floor. This was illuminated against Alabama who is loaded with speed and athleticism as they regularly cooked Florida off the bounce which led to dunks or wide open threes.
Let’s back things up a bit.
Remember when the Gators got dog walked by UConn? Two of the best Gators in that game were Alex Fudge and Riley Kugel.
Against Alabama the best non-Castleton Gator was once again Riley Kugel. That UConn team had NBA level athleticism, and so did Alabama. When you are playing these teams with stellar athleticism you need guys who can hang from a size, speed, and explosiveness level.
I don’t mean to single this player out, but let’s look at someone who doesn’t have a high level of athleticism… point guard Kyle Lofton. Against UConn, he had 0 points. Against Alabama, 2 points on 0-8 shooting from the field.
Florida’s staff is still learning what it takes to win at the SEC level and games like this will show them that there is a requisite amount of athleticism required to win and it’s something they should try to target with both the transfer portal and with high school recruiting.
Despite the shaky NCAA Tournament resume, Florida isn’t in awful shape from an SEC standpoint.
Overall the SEC has disappointed as a league and the fact that it’s down means the Gators might actually have a pretty good finish. Right now KenPom projects the Gators to finish 5th in the league, and it’s possible with so many easier games remaining on the schedule. Florida will be projected to win 6 of their last 7 games, and if that happens they could very well finish 5th or even higher.
This is the time where I have to remind people that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t look at conference standings. So yes–it is possible for the Gators to finish 4th or 5th in the SEC and still miss the NCAA Tournament. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Thank you for your time, go Gators!