Good morning, my beautiful Gator Country subscribers!
I’m happy to be writing this newsletter on the heels of a mini two-game winning streak. If you have been reading these regularly you know that they are often written in the ashes of devastating Wednesday night loss, so it’s a definite change up in feel–well, at least for me, the guy writing after games!
Anyways, I’m happy to be hitting your inbox this fine Thursday morning. Here are some thoughts I’m having about Florida basketball.
The Gators have found their identity.
I am happy about the Gators grabbing wins over Georgia and LSU, but I don’t want to overreact to wins over the 91st and 87th ranked teams in KenPom. Don’t mistake this for me pouring cold water on the wins–because I still have a positive takeaway:
This team has established their identity.
And it’s tough to play against, physical, and fast defensive basketball.
It’s hard to believe that this team that struggled so much defensively to start the season has done a complete rebrand but that’s the case–this team is playing outstanding defense. This defense was pretty much the only reason they were in the game against Auburn, and it was the reason they got the win against LSU when their offense wasn’t firing.
Since Thanksgiving, the Gators are actually the 7th ranked team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (per T-Rank) which is a tremendous number. The players are playing with pride on that end, and they’ve got the length and athleticism to play into this rugged defensive style. I believe that to be successful every basketball team needs an identity and it looks like this team has found one. It’s defense.
However, this isn’t always going to make for pretty basketball.
Remember how I said the Gators were 7th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency since Thanksgiving? That’s incredible, but they weren’t able to parlay that into many wins because of the offense.
Since Thanksgiving, the Gators are 162nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Honestly, I don’t think that number is going to surprise any of you reading this because their offense has been downright painful to watch recently. And truthfully–I think it’s even worse than their offensive point total is showing. Florida has started to generate more turnovers and transition possessions and they have been excellent at finishing those. They deserve full credit for that, by the way. However, the points they are getting in transition is covering up (only slightly) for a halfcourt offense that is downright dreadful. Luckily we are starting to see some changes from the original continuity ball screen that the Gators used to start the season, but the Gators are still searching for answers on that end and it is making for some ugly basketball.
Maybe the Gators should just completely steer into the defensive identity.
Florida has offensive talent. They have guys who have proven they can score, but I don’t think the scheme has gotten the best out of that ability. I really do think it’s possible for this team to be very good offensively, but considering how things have gone this season–I’m not expecting it. For that reason, I have to wonder if the Gators should just completely steer into the defensive identity, for as much as it’s going to make for some ugly basketball at times.
What do I mean by that? For starters, the Gators will likely have to slow the game down. Florida has been successful getting some transition buckets and they should continue to run when they get numbers off a steal, but generally they should be looking to make games with lower possession to allow their defense to win out.
It should also affect their personnel decisions. Steering into defense should mean more CJ Felder and the insertion of Niels Lane, and it could end up meaning less of Trey Bonham and maybe even Kyle Lofton. Would the offense take a hit? Yes, but the offense is already bad. However, they could get even more suffocating defensively, and for where this team is at, they could be wise to just try to maximize the defense at all costs.
Is Myreon Jones starting to turn it on?
I’m regretting writing this. I know it’s going to come across so negatively. But, this newsletter is about me giving honest thoughts to you, my good friends.
Myreon Jones has strung together a couple of good games, and full credit to him–he has had some big possessions defensively where his IQ put him in the right spot as a help defender and offensively he has knocked down a couple threes efficiently–which is huge for a Florida team that needs someone to make shots.
Here’s the sad part.
His whole career, Jones has been up and down. His funky shooting mechanics mean he’ll never be a consistent shooter, and we now have four years of sample size to know that he is going to be a streaky basketball player. For that reason, when he has a couple of solid games in a row, he isn’t someone that I start pencilling in for more minutes, more shots, or a bigger role–it probably means he is due for a bad game, or a couple of games, coming up soon.
I hate to say this after he has a good game as it feels like I’m trying to bring him down because I’m not–he was a huge part of the reason the Gators got the win at LSU and he deserves full credit. But, if there is discussion about him getting more minutes or a starting role or more shots…I’d just hold the horses on that one. He has been good in his current role, and that’s where the Gators should keep him.
It’s exciting to see Riley Kugel continuing to get better.
I have said it a thousand times and I’ll say it a thousand more–to win at the highest level of college basketball, you need NBA talent.
Riley Kugel is an NBA talent.
He’s not a surefire NBA player, but he’s got NBA size and athleticism, and we are seeing why those players are so effective in college basketball. Look, Kugel is still missing rotations, messing up plays offensively, and missing shots–and he has still been wildly effective. That’s what having big time athletes does in a game that rewards athleticism.
In recent years the Gators have had none of these guys, and that’s why their margin for success was so razor thin. Now the Gators have a couple of athletes at the wing with legit size and they are showing why those are the guys everyone should be targeting in recruiting.
Against LSU it was Kugel’s defense that was most improved. In recent games he has struggled to turn his athleticism and length into functional defensive production and he let smaller, less quick players beat him off the dribble–but he really sat down and guarded against LSU, and used his athleticism to be disruptive as a help defender.
He is also someone who thrives in transition, and his ability there was huge for a Florida team that needs those fast break buckets given how poor the half court offense is.
As Florida attempts to turn their season around, the emergence of Riley Kugel could be massive.
That’s all, I’ll talk to you next week!