By Will Miles
Keyontae’s last start
Not a lot has been heartwarming about the Florida Gators basketball season, but seeing Kyontae Johnson in full uniform getting a ceremonial start against Kentucky this past weekend was certainly one of them.
It’s probably not necessary to summarize for any Gators fan, but Johnson collapsed on the court against Florida State in Tallahassee in December of 2020 and hasn’t played since. It’s easy to forget now that he’s on the bench as “Coach Key” and still has plans to try to get medically cleared to play in the NBA that for an extended period of time, the question wasn’t whether Johnson was going to play again but whether he was going to live.
That he did live, and that he was able to step onto the court to receive the ceremonial tip is in itself a small miracle. It’s also a reminder for all of us of the fragility of life, but also of the strength of the human spirit.
Johnson could have pouted and sunk into depression. I have no doubt that he had those moments at times along the way. But I also suspect that this entire experience has made him grow as a person in ways that being an All-SEC performer may not have.
So I was really happy that Florida found a way to honor him on Senior Day. Certainly to have something you love taken away from you has to be really difficult to swallow. But the level of class shown by Johnson throughout this ordeal has been extraordinary, and an example for us all.
Men’s Basketball – Loss to Kentucky
With the loss to Kentucky, Florida is now 2-2 in its last four, with losses to both its ranked opponents (UK and Arkansas). In the two wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, Florida shot a combined 24-52 (46.2%) from three. In the two losses, the Gators shot a combined 11-45 (24.4%) from three.
That was punctuated with a 3-20 (15%) performance against the Wildcats.
The contrast is just that wide for the Gators all season long. In its 19 wins, the Gators have shot 173-496 (34.9%) from three while shooting just 78-310 (25.2%) from three in its 12 losses. It isn’t rocket science that you need to hit that shot to be successful, but that’s a pretty wide disparity in the splits.
That does explain why the Gators struggle against better teams. Particularly against teams with good defenses – Kentucky is pretty stifling – you end up with slightly worse looks. Moving a shooter off of his spot just a little bit can have a big effect, especially when we’re talking about non-elite shooters. It also means that when Colin Castleton can get things going and command a double team, his shooters are going to have more space.
That didn’t happen against Kentucky, as Castleton played well (23 points, 11 rebounds), but Kentucky was able to answer with Oscar Tshiebwe’s 27 points, 15 boards and perhaps more importantly, one-on-one defense against Castleton.
Without the ability to consistently command doubles, Florida couldn’t get its shooters open. And the Gators aren’t going to beat better teams without sinking a bunch of threes.
Men’s Basketball – Two more shots at redemption
We didn’t really expect Florida to beat Kentucky, and with the 71-63 loss to the Wildcats, Florida finishes the regular season at 19-12 (9-9 SEC) and still looking at the NCAA Tournament from the outside.
Florida’s NET rating is 54th and Joe Lunardi has the Gators as one of his last four teams left out. Interestingly, he also has Florida’s Thursday opponent in the SEC Tournament (Texas A&M) in the last four out category as well.
That means that Florida is going to be facing a determined opponent to open the SEC Tourney, and a team that beat Florida 56-55 in College Station earlier this month. That game featured a furious rally by the Gators (they were down 43-31 with 11 minutes left) as they converted that deficit into a 4-point lead with 1:44 remaining. But A&M then scored the last 5 points of the game to pull out the win.
But beating A&M likely isn’t going to be enough to get into the tournament. That means Florida will have to defeat a rested Auburn team as well in the second round. That’s the same Auburn team that Florida beat 63-62 just three weeks ago who is going to be looking to build momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament.
That’s a tall task to ask for this Gators squad.
Men’s Basketball – What else do we need to know about Mike White?
All of this of course leads to the argument we all end up having every year at the end of the season: what to make about Mike White?
Whatever happens against Texas A&M and potentially Auburn doesn’t really impact the way I feel about White. Neither does what happens in the NIT or even if he makes a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Any positive results put up at this point are merely window dressing on a seven-year tenure that is just average.
But it’s more than that. If you look at a bunch of key statistics, the program is either static or actually moving downhill.
The team’s best season in terms of turnover margin was 2018. It’s best season in terms of assist to turnover ratio was 2018. It’s best in terms of offensive rebounding margin was 2016. It’s best in terms of point differential was 2017. The only place where this season has been improved is free throw differential, and that’s after four straight years where the Gators had struggled there.
The average SEC Champion (regular season) has had a point differential of 11.8 points per game. White has averaged 6.1 with his best (11.4) still falling below the championship average and six of his seven seasons ranging between 3.9 and 6.6.
I’m okay if you decide that average is acceptable for the Gators basketball program. But if you’re someone who is trying to convince yourself that this is a slow build and more time is needed, that just isn’t backed up by the results.
Softball finally goes down, still 21-1
Florida softball finally lost, going down 5-4 to Southern Miss last Wednesday and ending its 16-game winning streak to start the season. Of course, the Gators then ripped off 5 straight wins over the weekend in the Bubly Invitational over Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and Tennessee State to improve to 21-1 overall.
The loss was driven by a 3-run homer surrendered by Lexie Delbrey in the first inning, but then she settled down to pitch 5.2 more innings and only surrendering one run. The bad inning was highlighted by a 3-2 walk and an 0-2 hit by pitch to put the two runners on. The Gators actually tied the game up at 4 but then lost on a run scored on a throwing error in the 7th.
That three-run homer was really the extent of any rallies over the past week. The Gators lost that game giving up 5 runs, but then surrendered 1, 1, 0, 1, and 0 in the tournament. That tournament also featured the return of pitcher Elizabeth Hightower from injury, and Delbrey continuing her roll on the mound.
And that’s really the story I take from this week. With Hightower out, a few more pitchers have gotten an opportunity (Delbrey leads the team with 48 IP and Natalie Lugo has 32.1). That is going to bode really well for this team moving forward, as last season included Hightower (156.2 IP) and Lugo (120.2 IP) and then significant drop-offs in work load to Katie Chronister (73.0) and Rylee Trlicek (22.2).
Spreading that work load, for a team that has aspirations of playing for a championship, will make sure everyone is healthy when the big-time tournaments come around.
Gators baseball takes 2 of 3 from Miami
The Gators baseball team took a big step forward this past weekend, taking 2 out of 3 games from the Miami Hurricanes in Coral Gables.
Miami came into the game ranked #22 in the country, so these are solid victories. Those victories increase the Gators record to 11-3 and 10-1 since the season opening series against Liberty.
That 1-2 series against Liberty brought some doubt initially, but the Flames are now 11-1 on the year after beating #15 North Carolina Tuesday night. That’s a pretty good baseball team.
Perhaps more encouraging for Florida in the Miami series is that they lost the game Hunter Barco started, yet still only surrendered four runs in the final two games of the series. Barco gave up 4 runs himself in 5 innings of work in the first game, and took the loss. But then Brandon Sproat gave the Gators 6.1 IP with 0 ER in game 2 and Timmy Manning and Blake Purnell combined for 8 IP and 1 ER in game 3.
Barco has pitched really well this year (17 IP, 2.65 ERA), but Sproat (15.1 IP, 1.17 ERA), Purnell (14 IP, 0.00 ERA) and Nick Ficarrotta (15.2 IP, 1.15 ERA) have been better. Add to that Manning (12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA) and Garrett Milchin (8 IP, 1.13 ERA), Ryan Slater (13 IP, 0.69 ERA), Karl Hartman (6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA) and Brandon Neely (6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA) and the Gators have a staff that is starting to look like one that could potentially compete in the SEC.
Orlando Three
Florida had a big weekend of recruiting visitors this past weekend, and the news coming out of it was that Malik Bryant (27th nationally, 2nd overall LB), Derrick LeBlanc (87th nationally, 11th overall DL) and Payton Kirkland (203rd nationally, 18th overall OT) are all planning on announcing their recruiting decisions on July 23rd.
Now, this doesn’t mean that any or all three will pick Florida, but it does seem like positive news that this was announced after LeBlanc and Kirkland both had unofficial visits to Florida. Bryant took an unofficial visit to the Gators in the middle of January.
The addition of all three though would bring the Gators average playing rating to 94.4 when combined with current Florida commit Aaron Gates. And that – average player rating – is what we want to look at when it comes to this time of year.
Last season, Texas A&M finished with a 94.77 player rating. Alabama was at 95.19, Georgia was at 92.79 and Ohio State was at 94.05. There was then a significant drop-off to Texas (91.02) and Penn State (90.82). Florida finished with an average player rating of 88.61, after four straight years of Dan Mullen leading the Gators to finishes around 90.5.
So what that means is if the Gators are able to add the Orlando 3, that puts them on a path towards being in that top-tier of recruiting programs. That’s the goal for Billy Napier, and while three recruits don’t make a class, that’s what’s at stake if he can get them to pull the trigger for Gainesville come July.
Stay tuned.
Gators in the combine
Four Florida Gators were invited to the NFL combine: Zachary Carter, Kaiir Elam, Jeremiah Moon and Dameon Pierce.
I wouldn’t have predicted it, but Moon was the star of the show. He ran a 4.76 in the 40-yard dash and showcased impressive athleticism in the high and broad jumps (40.5 inches, 11 feet). That kind of explosiveness is going to make him some money.
Dameon Pierce, Zachary Carter and Kaiir Elam put up good performances as well.
Pierce has been getting a lot of publicity lately after really showing out in his all-star game, but he ended up just okay in the combine. His 40-yard dash came in at 4.59, reflecting a lack of breakaway speed that was a limitation in college.
Carter ran a 4.99 40-yard dash which is pretty good for a player of his size (6’4”, 282 lbs), but was clearly overshadowed by Georgia’s Jordan Davis, who ran the 40 in 4.78 seconds despite weighing in at 341 pounds.
Elam ran an official 40 of 4.39 seconds, putting him solidly in the upper echelon of corners in this draft. Combined with what he’s put on file, that 40 time (and other combine performances) likely solidify what teams have already seen on film.
The four players at the combine suggests what we saw on the field this year: Florida just wasn’t all that talented. The Gators had 15 players drafted in 2020 and 2021, and the subsequent recruiting classes weren’t able to carry the load last season.
These guys are all really good players. When healthy, Elam may even be a game changer. But there’s a reason that Florida was much better in 2019 and 2020 than it was in 2021.
Gators in the draft
So where do these guys go?
Most mock drafts have Elam as a late first round or early second round pick. I think he ends up in the first round because he has showed elite cover skills on film in the SEC, and he backed that up with his performance at the combine. You can really see the skills on display against Alabama this past year. And perhaps not coincidently, Elam was also hurt in that game and his play did drop off a little bit after that.
Moon has been an enigma. Full of promise every year at Florida, he was just never able to really deliver on that promise despite coming back for a COVID year. He was hamstrung by the Gators defensive staff switching him from Buck to linebacker repeatedly, but his lack of productivity on the field is going to hurt his draft stock (8 total sacks in 6 years). I think someone will take a chance on his athleticism, but would be surprised if it was before the 6th round.
Carter is the guy who I think made some money coming back this year. Potentially an undrafted free agent or late draft pick last year, Carter is likely a 3rd or 4th round pick this year. That’s because he was solid in 2019 and 2020 (4.5 and 5.0 sacks, respectively), but then raised his game even further in 2021 (11.5 TFL, 7.5 sacks). This was without another solid pass rushing threat on the line and so having to deal with double teams. I think he’ll end up going to a 3-4 team in the 3rd round.
Finally, we come to Dameon Pierce. The NFL doesn’t value running backs all that much. But part of that is because lots of running backs already have significant wear on the tires when they come into the league. Pierce shouldn’t have that problem, as he shared carries his entire career at Florida. The intangibles for Pierce are off the chart, but as discussed above, he lacks top-end speed. But his 4.59 40-time is faster than Clyde Edwards-Helaire two years ago, and Edwards-Helaire was drafted by the Chiefs in the first round.
I don’t think Pierce goes that high, but I think it’s completely reasonable to see him go in the 3rd or 4th round. Pierce is ranked as the 4th best running back behind Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller and Kenneth Walker III. Last yaer, the 4th running back drafted went 88th overall (Trey Sermon, 49ers). That seems about right for Pierce.
Anthony Richardson’s rank in the SEC
I had a friend ask me a question the other day that intrigued me: where would I rank Anthony Richardson among the SEC QBs for 2022 right now?
At first I thought it would be easy to answer. After all, Richardson played sparingly and wasn’t lights-out throwing the ball. Surely there would be 7 or 8 players sure to rank above him preseason. Well……
First, we start with the sure-thing, have to rank above Richardson players. That includes Bryce Young and Stetson Bennett. Young is the returning Heisman winner and Bennett just won the National Championship.
But if we’re looking at players with career QB ratings higher than Richardson beyond Young and Bennett, here’s the list: Hendon Hooker (170.7), Spencer Rattler (166.0), KJ Jefferson (155) and Brady Cook (Missouri, 149.1). Richardson’s career QB rating is 146.7.
That’s significant because Richardson is a better runner – and it’s not even close – than each and every player on that list except perhaps Jefferson. So I could buy that Richardson is a worse overall QB than Young, Bennett, Hooker and Jefferson (though I think he has a shot to pass the last 3 if he truly grows). But just replicating what he did through the air and on the ground last year will place him above every other signal caller in the SEC.
If I’m right, that means Florida has a top-5 QB in the SEC ready to take the reins. That’s the right place to be if I’m pointing to a turnaround.