With time running out for the Gators to make their resume NCAA Tournament quality they’ll head on the road to Athens to take on a Georgia Bulldogs team that will be doing their best to play spoiler.
Right now the Gators are hoping for opportunities to better their metrics that have been damaged by losses to Texas Southern, Ole Miss, and Maryland. Unfortunately, Georgia doesn’t do that for them whatsoever. The Bulldogs, 6-22 on the season and 1-14 in SEC play, are currently 211th in the NCAA’s NET rankings. For a reference, Texas Southern is a few spots ahead at 209th. Essentially, Florida is playing a mid-major opponent in the eyes of the metrics, and if they were to take care of business the win wouldn’t do much for them. However, a loss would almost certainly sink their NCAA Tournament chances. The Gators are absolutely in a position where this is a must-win game and they can’t afford to take any possessions off that could give the Bulldogs some momentum at home.
Florida is currently 9th in the SEC at 7-8, and with Vanderbilt and Texas A&M right behind them at 6-9, the Gators could very well find themselves in the bottom third of the SEC if they don’t stay on track.
Shockingly, Georgia’s one win in SEC play came against Alabama at home, and in that game they came back from a 9-point deficit in the second half. Now, there have been plenty of games where they have been down by that kind of deficit and had no juice left to come back in those games, but against Alabama they proved they can heat up and make a surge that allows them to beat a quality SEC opponent.
In Florida and Georgia’s first matchup of the season in Gainesville the Gators won by a score of 72-63. That is a somewhat comfortable win for the Gators but it doesn’t tell the whole story of exactly how the flow of the game went. Florida came out on fire, and 10 minutes into the game they led 35-19. However, over the last 30 minutes of the game, Georgia outscored Florida 51-48. The Gators’ hot shooting gave them a cushion early that was ultimately the difference, but for three quarters of the game these teams played a tight, contested basketball game.
Had it not been for Myreon Jones, the Gators may have suffered a devastating loss to the Bulldogs. He had his best game of the season, hitting his first five threes early and ending with a season high 23 points on 7-11 shooting from three. His shot making early in the first half was the difference in this game and if he hadn’t caught fire the outcome could have been very different. His shooting has been hot and cold also season long, so while you’d love to suggest that he has a good chance at the same production in meeting number two, there isn’t much reasoning that would back that up.
Something that allowed Georgia to play the Gators close for three quarters of the game was their swarming of Colin Castleton as they were able to limit him to 13 points. They relentlessly swarmed him on each post up, and the Gators weren’t able to punish that defense with open catch and shoot threes or cuts. In recent games the Gators have done a much better job at getting Castleton to his spots on the block without putting him in a position to be doubled and he could be set up for a big game against the Bulldogs. Georgia has a quality center in 6’11”, 240 pound Braelen Bridges, but past him they are very undersized in the frontcourt.
Georgia’s lack of size means they don’t generally go hard after the offensive glass and aren’t productive offensive rebounders (242nd in the country) but you wouldn’t know it given how they played against the Gators. They grabbed 13 offensive rebounds allowing for all kinds of second chance opportunities, something the Gators will have to try to clean up on Saturday. Of course, the Gators are 335th in the country in defensive rebounding so just about everyone has had their way offensive rebounding against the Gators and it’s something that could sting them against pretty much any opponent this season, even a Georgia team that isn’t talented on the offensive glass.
The biggest matchup of concern for Florida is physical 6’4” sophomore Kario Oquendo who leads the Bulldogs in scoring with 15 points a game and his talent was on display against the Gators in Gainesville as he finished with 22 points. Fortunately for Florida he was 0-5 from three, or that number could have really inflated. Oquendo isn’t a great shooter generally, but despite defenses knowing that fact and selling out to keep him out of the paint he’s still able to relentlessly get downhill and get to the rim and finish. Florida’s wings were generally undersized next to him and he was able to feast on these matchups resulting in his 22 points. Niels Lane was the best option defending him and he played 18 minutes in the first matchup and you could definitely see that number rising in the second meeting.
Another matchup of concern for Florida is 6th year guard Aaron Cook, a savvy veteran who was also able to get dribble penetration against Florida’s defense all night long. He’s more of a passer than a finisher and a lot of the open shots he created for teammates were missed, but he played even better than even his 14 points and 2 assists would have suggested.
With Georgia 211th in the NET and the game taking place in Athens this will be a low-level quadrant-3 game for the Gators. Would a win help the Gators a ton? No, but a loss would definitely sink them. Additionally, we’re at the point where it’s not just the wins and losses, but how the Gators play in doing so. Efficiency metrics are baked into the NET algorithm, and that’s why, for example, Michigan Blows out Purdue and goes from 47th to 30th in the NET and the Gators beat Auburn in a game where both teams struggled but Florida comes out on top and the Gators only improve from 53rd to 47th (they have since dropped to 56th). If Florida does get a lead on Georgia…they can’t sit back. They need to leave no doubt–as how they go about winning is just as important as the win itself, if they’re lucky enough to get one.
Florida is in a position where a game against 6-22 Georgia is a huge one and they need to take care of business–and win convincingly.
This game takes place February 26th at 12 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN 2.