Coming off a gritty win over Missouri the Gators (14-8, 4-5 SEC) will look to build some momentum and get some revenge against the Ole Miss Rebels (12-10, 3-6 SEC) who blasted the Gators in Oxford in the first meeting between the two teams 70-54. That game was one of Florida’s most disappointing losses of the year and they’d love to get that bitter taste out of their mouth this time around when the Rebels travel to Gainesville.
In the first meeting of the season injuries played a huge role. For Florida, it was Colin Castleton who was missing his third consecutive game with a shoulder injury. CJ Felder was also out with an illness, adding to the frontcourt depth issues. Things weren’t much better for Ole Miss who was without guard Jarkel Joiner, their leader offensively and overall best player, and Robert Allen, a physical 6’8” forward who was a key starter.
This time around, injuries continue to play a role.
Colin Castleton’s status for Saturday’s game is still unknown, though there was a bit of optimism regarding his recovery when they announced only a few hours before the Missouri game that he would be out. Until they officially announce his return it probably isn’t wise to assume anything he’s back, so while there was some optimism expressed, at this current moment he likely won’t play.
Jason Jitoboh had an outstanding game, quite possibly the best of his career, against Ole Miss where he had 12 points on 6-6 shooting with 5 rebounds, and now he’s out for the season with an eye injury.
CJ Felder has been slowly getting back into shape after the illness wiped him out for the better part of 10 days, rounding out Florida’s injury situation for Saturday’s game.
While things might be in a slightly better place for Florida and their injuries entering Saturday’s game, that doesn’t seem to be the case for Ole Miss.
Robert Allen appears to still be nowhere close to playing, leaving a hole in Ole Miss’ frontcourt. When asked about Jarkel Joiner, head coach Kermit Davis said he’d “maybe” be ready for Saturday. If that were to be the case it would be a huge boost for the Rebels, but if he was active it would be his first game since January 8th so you’d expect some rust.
Unfortunately for Ole Miss the positive news regarding Jarkel Joiner was extinguished by some terrible news regarding another guard.
Daeshun Ruffin, the freshman point guard who stepped in when Joiner went down and was having a fantastic month that was one of the best stories in college basketball, went down in Ole Miss’ last game which was against LSU. In the first half going up against one of the best defenses in the country, Ruffin had 19 points and 3 assists. Then disaster struck as he suffered a devastating knee injury, one that required surgery and ended his season. Ruffin was playing outstanding basketball, and he was the engine behind the Rebels’ dominant win over the Gators earlier in the season. He finished the game with 21 points, 6 assists, and 4 steals, completely overwhelming the Gators on both sides at the floor. Ruffin is a slippery 5’9” guard who is a handful to defend off the dribble and Florida didn’t have an answer on the perimeter allowing him to get wherever he wanted on the floor and cut up the Gators’ defense.
No Ruffin is a massive break for the Gators. With Jarkel Joiner either out, or limited, Florida may not have to deal with the kind of elite guard play that has been a thorn in their side defensively this season.
Even without their two outstanding point guards, Ole Miss has found ways to win. After trampling the Gators they beat Kansas State in the Big 12-SEC Challenge and beat LSU despite losing Ruffin near the midway point of the game. They did lose to Arkansas in a game where their offense went stagnant, but injuries generally haven’t knocked this team off stride.
For Florida, a concerning matchup will be in the paint. Knowing they’ll be without Jason Jitoboh, and likely without Colin Castleton, Ole Miss’ Nysier Brooks is a major concern. At 7’0” and 245 pounds he’s a problem in most matchups and for the Gators who don’t have size at center he’s a major concern. Brooks isn’t especially skilled with post moves but he’ll use his hulking frame to gain position and turn and dunk and when matched up with 6’9”, 175 pound Tuon Gatkek…Florida may have a serious issue on their hands. A healthy CJ Felder would be more equipped to bang with Brooks down low, but right now we have no idea if he’ll be totally healthy or how much he’ll be able to play.
Another concern with playing Ole Miss is the savvy coaching of Kermit Davis, particularly in a situation where the Gators are playing against him for the second time. Davis has many junk defenses at his disposal and loves to change from zone to man and back to zone, sometimes even in the same possession. Ole Miss does this often, but curiously didn’t mix it in a ton during the first matchup between the Rebels and Gators. Could that be because he was saving it for the second matchup of the season? Florida got to experience this two seasons ago, the only time Florida has played Ole Miss twice in the same season in the Kermit Davis era with the Rebels. In the first meeting of the season, Florida won 71-55 with a much more talented roster. In the second game of the season Kermit Davis went deep into his bag of defenses and completely changed his offensive strategy to attack Florida’s hedging defense and the Rebels won 68-51, only playing 6 players until garbage time and meticulously picking apart the Gators.
Florida will need to be prepared for all the different looks both offensively and defensively that the Rebels could roll out. Of course, the Rebels already showed they could beat Florida earlier in the season and that means they may just go back to the well of what was working for them, though a big part of what worked was the outstanding one on one play of Daeshun Ruffin.
As we currently stand the Gators are 49th in the NET rankings and are likely on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with work to do if they want to go dancing. Ole Miss is 105th, and since the game is in Gainesville, it will be a quadrant-3 game for the Gators. A quadrant-3 wouldn’t do a whole bunch to improve Florida’s resume, but a quadrant-3 loss would absolutely devastate it. You could call this game a “must win,” but it could be easily framed as more of a “can’t lose.” That’s the position the Gators have put themselves in, and moving forward every game on the schedule is massive because it’s either games that are quality opponents that Florida needs to beat to improve their stock or lower quality opponents that would tank Florida’s resume.
This game takes place Saturday, February 5th at 3:30 ET and will be televised on the SEC Network.