The No. 13 Gators will hit the road for the first time this season when they take on South Florida (0-1) at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday at 1.
As I did last week, you will find the five biggest storylines that I’ll be watching closely on Saturday below. These are the things I will use to determine if the Gators (1-0) had a successful day or not. I also give you my score prediction at the end.
1. Better play from Emory Jones
I’ll start with the obvious. Jones’ first start against FAU was extremely rough and not just because of the stats. On his first interception, he stared down his receiver so hard that he might as well have told the defense who he was throwing to before the snap.
On his second interception, he put way too much air under the ball instead of gunning it into Rick Wells along the sideline. He nearly threw another interception when he threw a line drive instead of a lob pass on a wheel route.
Jones made some poor decisions and some poor throws. That’s what was most discouraging about his performance; it wasn’t just one thing that can be corrected in a week. There were a bunch of problems, both physical and mental.
Dan Mullen has made it clear that Jones will be his starter for the foreseeable future, so the Gators need him to step up. I want to see him look more comfortable and in-control against USF. If he doesn’t make any of those “what-the-heck-was-that?” type of plays against the Bulls, throws for around 200 yards and doesn’t commit a turnover, I’ll consider that a success.
Jones’ progression could be the difference between an 8-4 season and playoff contention.
2. More of the same on the ground
Obviously, I don’t expect UF to rush for 400 yards and produce 13 runs of 10 yards or longer again this week. Those stats likely won’t be matched for several years.
But what can be matched is the physicality and cohesiveness up front. The FAU game was one of the more fundamentally sound and physical games we’ve seen from the offensive line under Mullen and John Hevesy.
They weren’t perfect, but they didn’t make any glaring mistakes that nearly got the running backs killed.
They knew who to block and executed their blocks most of the time. Only four of their 46 rushing attempts lost yardage, and that was with a couple of athletic quarterbacks that can run themselves into trouble at times.
Now they need to prove that they can be a good run-blocking unit all season and not just for one game against a mediocre opponent.
Even though USF isn’t a very good team either, I’ll feel very optimistic about the running game heading into SEC play if they can carry the offense again versus the Bulls.
3. Fewer defensive penalties
The defense committed three penalties that negated third-down stops against FAU and another late-hit penalty down near the goal line.
Overall, the defense played much better than they did in any game last season, but penalties were one of the issues that carried over.
It’s hard enough to play defense against SEC opponents when you have three or four downs to work with. When you give away a handful of first downs without the offense having to do anything, it becomes nearly impossible.
You’re going to have the occasional pass-interference or facemask penalty. That’s to be expected when you’re trying to make plays against some of the quickest athletes in the world. You can live with those types of penalties to a certain degree.
What you can’t have are the late-hit and roughing-the-passer penalties. Those simply come down to discipline and intelligence.
I want to see the Gators’ defense make South Florida earn every first down and every scoring opportunity they get.
4. Tighter coverage
Statistically, the secondary played well against FAU. Through three quarters, N’Kosi Perry completed just 50 percent of his passes for 103 yards. He ended up more than doubling his passing yardage in the fourth quarter as the Gators brought in some backups and played softer coverage, so I don’t really worry about the final stat line too much.
But I want to see the defensive backs get up in the receivers’ faces and make more plays on the ball. They only broke up one pass as an entire defense, and they didn’t even come close to intercepting a pass despite getting consistent pressure up front.
Once they get into SEC play, relying on the quarterback to miss his target is a dangerous plan. It’s better if you can force incompletions and interceptions by getting your hands on the ball.
They didn’t do that last week, and that needs to change against USF.
5. A second-half blowout
While the Gators were never in danger of losing to FAU, they only led by two or three scores for most of the game. So, they weren’t able to completely empty the bench the way you’d like to against a team like that.
It’ll be great if they can enter the fourth quarter against USF up by 30 or 40 points. Most importantly, they’ll be able to get their starters out of the game and avoid any injuries that might hurt them against Alabama.
But it would also be nice to see Carlos Del Rio-Wilson or Jalen Kitna play quarterback, Nick Elksnis play tight end and Corey Collier play safety. It’d be nice to see Demarkcus Bowman and Lorenzo Lingard get more than just a carry or two here and there.
The only way any of that happens is if the starters take care of business by getting off to a hot start.
Score Prediction
Florida 41, South Florida 0
The Bulls may give Samford a run for their money as the worst team on the Gators’ schedule; that’s how terrible they are.
This will be another ho-hum early-season victory for the Gators. Offensively, the running game will be strong again, though not quite as dominant as last week. Jones and Anthony Richardson will make up for that by being slightly better in the passing game and not committing a turnover. This week, it will be Dameon Pierce that has the 100-yard rushing game.
Defensively, the secondary will intercept their first two passes of the season, and the front will collect five more sacks. They’ll continue to keep the Bulls off of the scoreboard in 2021.
UF cruises to victory without a struggle and gets ready for the mammoth showdown with Alabama next week.