By Will Miles
Supreme Court decision
Lots of people will tell you this is it for the NCAA.
The Supreme Court ruling against the NCAA in NCAA vs. Alston certainly seems to portend the end of college sports as we know it, especially considering the blistering opinion written by Justice Kavanaugh. No, this decision does not authorize direct payments to players, but it is a step in that direction.
But one thing I think we need to keep in mind is that the NCAA – and its member conferences – have really deep pockets. And perhaps more importantly, the players they will be negotiating with, for the most part, do not.
Think about professional sports unions. Those entities have trouble staying together and negotiating without crossing picket lines and many if not all of those players are millionaires. I have a hard time believing that the conferences aren’t going to win considerable leverage in collective bargaining should college football start looking more like professional football.
I’m not a lawyer and don’t want to pretend that I’m one. But I know enough to know that the entity with the long-view almost always wins when it comes to bargaining. That’s why the NFL owners haven’t had to guarantee contracts and the NBA has a salary cap.
Yes, this decision is a bad thing for the status quo. But anyone telling you this is the end of college football is just being overly dramatic.
Change is coming
With all that said, change is coming.
I’m not sure what that change will look like, and I’m not sure whether we will like it, but it is coming. Perhaps football will be spun off as a separate entity without having the pretense of players needing to go to school to avoid Title IX restrictions. Perhaps the next TV deal will just get negotiated higher so that the players can get a piece of the pie.
About the only thing I know is that lawyers are going to make a lot of money in the next few years as this shakes out.
But not all change is bad. Ad revenue dried up in 1984 after the Supreme Court ruled the NCAA was unfairly restricting TV negotiating rights, but that decision along with the proliferation of cable TV has built college football into what it is now.
And I know that conferences haven’t really wanted to expand and add conference championship games, but the success of the event in the SEC forced other conferences to do the same. Those games are almost always great.
So sure, college football is going to look different. Perhaps the players are going to be compensated more. Or perhaps we’ll still be conflicted because the players get taken advantage of by the people in power. All I know if the script Gators is on the helmet, I’ll be watching.
The people in power know that too.
NIL enough?
The Supreme Court decision does point towards one thing I have become concerned with when it comes to name, image and likeness rights. I’m not sure there’s enough demand for the players to really keep the money flowing.
The Tim Tebow’s, Johnny Manziel’s and Adrian Peterson’s of the world will be fine. They’ll be able to command significant value on the open market doing television commercials or wearing somebody’s logo onto a TV interview. But what about players like Ethan White or Jean Delance?
I’m not sure that a starting offensive lineman in the SEC is really worth all that much as a pitchman. I’m also not sure that the amount they are worth is larger than the cost of a scholarship and attendance at a good school.
The discussion around players getting paid has always been framed as the university getting rich on the backs of unpaid athletes, but really it is the university getting rich on the backs of unpaid stars. The stars are going to get paid in whatever iteration is coming next.
I’m not sure what that means for the non-stars.
What does it mean for Florida?
The Florida Gators are a national brand with a rabid fan base. That combination is only going to make the Gators more competitive when it comes to monetary issues that arise.
Combine that with fantastic weather, no state income tax and the program’s history and I suspect that Florida is going to be a big draw when the dust settles. I think the same applies to most SEC schools, which have name recognition, and a proven track record of getting guys to the NFL.
I actually think this could be a death knell for the Big Ten though. I mean, if I am from Ohio and all things are equivalent, maybe I end up going to Ohio State. But if the money is unequal (and the SEC has a big TV contract), why would I go there?
I’ve made fun of the Big Ten for a while now, mainly because I think they ride the coattails of Ohio State much like people accuse (incorrectly) of other SEC teams of riding the coattails of Alabama. But I don’t see how a school like Wisconsin is going to be able to compete in a world where another program can offer more.
Shemar James Commitment
Last weekend, Florida received a commitment from linebacker Shemar James.
On its face, it’s not that big of a deal. James is certainly a good player, ranked 146th overall by 247Sports and with a 4-7 round NFL Draft projection. He’s also played on offense at running back and receiver, so he has ball skills and good change of direction. But still, he’s just one commitment and it’s not like he’s a 5-star recruit.
But his commitment is a big deal because he is from Mobile, Alabama and was being recruited heavily by Alabama. You don’t normally go into Saban’s back yard and pull a kid that he wants out of that environment. The fact that Mullen and Co. were able to do so gives at least some hope that the recruiting may be going up a notch.
There’s still a lot of work to do, but at least there’s hope that could be the case. Beating Saban for someone he wants is a good start.
Chandler (C.J.) Smith Commitment
Following up the commitment of James was that of C.J. Smith of Bishop Moore Catholic High School in Orlando, Florida.
Smith is a 3-star commit, but a highly ranked one (364 overall) who was injured last season and likely will shoot up the recruiting boards this season once scouts see his speed. After all, he’s a track athlete with elite straight-line speed as he runs the 100 and 200-meter dashes along with the 4×100 relay.
When I looked at his profile, I thought maybe he was going to remind me of Brandon James given that many track athletes are shorter players with quick, powerful strides. Instead, I was surprised to see that Smith is 6’3” and 180 pounds, indicating that he will be able to stretch the field the minute he arrives on campus.
Urban Meyer made sure he brought in elite speed at every position when he arrived in Gainesville. Mullen hasn’t been able to do that at every position just yet, but Smith is a good start at receiver.
State of 2022 recruiting
All that said, the 2022 class still doesn’t look significantly better than any of the previous classes under Mullen.
It is currently ranked 22nd overall with an average player ranking of 90.60, which is right around where all of Mullen’s classes have finished. Getting guys like Smith and James committed hasn’t really been Mullen’s issue. It’s been getting multiple players like defensive lineman Walter Nolan to commit in one cycle that has prevented his classes from being elite.
With that in mind, Nolan and Frisco, TX wide receiver Evan Stewart are the players to watch. Two 5-star recruits along with the normal recruiting class that has been brought in recently would be a step-up that would indicate things are headed in the right direction, especially considering that defensive recruits have to know that Todd Grantham is on the hot seat.
I get excited whenever someone decides to become a Gator. A lot of that is going to be happening over the next few months as the class starts to come together and players make their decisions. Since Florida is only at 8 commits thus far, it’s going to feel like the staff has a lot of momentum.
But pay attention to the top-tier guys. Mullen has signed 2 5-stars in his four classes at Florida. Alabama signed 7 last season. That’s where we need to see improvement.
Then & Now
Ethan Hughes wrote some really interesting articles regarding where Florida stood in 2017 versus where the Gators now stand in 2021 at different position groupings. Hughes picked Florida as having the better roster in 2021 in most categories, but a lot of that was based on potential.
For example, the Gators defensive backs were listed as Trey Dean, Kaiir Elam, Jaydon Hill, Tre’Vez Johnson and Rashad Torrence. That’s compared to a 2017 group that consisted of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Duke Dawson, C.J. Henderson, Nick Washington and Marco Wilson. That’s four NFL Draft picks.
But there’s one thing I think we should consider. That 2017 season was an anomaly. From the reaction to the shark humping photo, the credit card scandal right before the Michigan game, having an unprepared and young Feleipe Franks as the starting QB and the death threats, I’m not sure that team could have been in a much worse situation to succeed than the way things ended up.
But 7 of the players that Hughes cited on defense (Taven Bryan, Jabari Zuniga, and Vosean Joseph in addition to Wilson, Henderson, Dawson and Gardner-Johnson) were drafted. Another 7 on the offensive side of the ball were drafted as well.
Florida fans have a lot of reasons to complain about Jim McElwain. But given the way that Dan Mullen has been able to take McElwain’s players and develop them into very good SEC players, I’m not sure that talent evaluation should be one of them.
Emory Jones may be great. The same might be true for Anthony Richardson, Jalen Kitna or Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. But we know that Kyle Trask was great, and that is someone who was on the depth chart in 2017.
Dan Mullen has a lot to do with that, but Jim McElwain does too.
Who will step up
The list of wide receivers in 2017 in Hughes’ article was impressive: Antonio Callaway, Josh Hammond, Brandon Powell, Freddie Swain and Tyrie Cleveland. That list doesn’t even include Kadarius Toney, who was showing us what he could do in limited action already.
So who’s on the 2021 list who really makes me get excited?
The obvious answer is Jacob Copeland. Copeland has been in other players’ shadows for a few years now but has flashed large-scale ability but also large-scale inconsistency. Xzavier Henderson has the pedigree. Henderson played as a true freshman and was able to make his way into a loaded rotation, so expectations are high.
But the guy I think has the best chance to step up is Trent Whittemore. Whittemore only had 10 catches, but that was due to injuries, not ability. In fact, Whittemore was only targeted 12 times, which means he was making catches at a 83% catch per target clip. That’s on-par with where Kadarius Toney was in 2020 (81%) and 2019 (77%).
I’m not suggesting Whittemore will be Toney. He probably has ACL’s.
What I am suggesting is that those numbers suggest that Whittemore can create separation and get open, and that when he is targeted, he catches the ball. Compare his catch per target percentage to Jacob Copeland (58%) and Xzavier Heneerson (44%) and it suggests that Whittemore is probably the guy we should be expecting big things from.
D.J. Humphries’ good deeds
I highlighted the good deeds of Gervon Dexter and his girlfriend a few weeks ago, so I was happy to get another chance after reading about former Gator D.J. Humphries.
Humphries was a 5-star recruit brought in by Will Muschamp and became a first round draft pick of the Arizona Cardinals in 2015. But Humphries had a desire to help his home town of Union, South Carolina and with the prodding of his wife Briyana has helped found PeeWee’s House, dedicated to providing fresh, healthy food to a population that doesn’t regularly have access.
A quote in the article by Marion Kirby, chief operations manager of Marvin’s Produce, really struck me. “The servings of fruit that people received in those boxes might be the only fruit they’ll eat for weeks.”
It’s easy to take for granted how well many of us have it. But Humphries charity points out that there are ways to make a difference right in our own back yards. The stories we usually read about football players have to do with Uzi’s, domestic violence or some other sort of bad news, but the reality is that the vast majority of NFL players do all sorts of things that have a positive impact in the community.
Good for you, D.J. and Briyana Humphries.