Morning Gators fans! By the time you’re reading this, the Gators will only be a few hours away from opening their SEC Tournament against Vanderbilt. The Commodores just beat Texas A&M for the chance to play the Gators, and right now this game is dominating my thoughts about Florida basketball.
Here they are!
Florida needs to win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament.
Okay, “needs” is a bit strong here. They’re still in the NCAA Tournament, even if they were to lose in crushing fashion to Vanderbilt (probably) but they could really use a couple of wins for this reason–they want to get out of the 8-seed vs 9-seed game.
According to BracketMatrix, a composite of over 100 of the top bracketologists’ brackets, the Gators are currently an 8-seed. A loss to Vanderbilt could make them a 9-seed. A couple of wins could get them up to 7.
Florida really wants to avoid the 8-9 game because if you win that game…you play the 1-seed. Especially in this year, that could be a death sentence because there is a 50% the game would be against Baylor or Gonzaga who have been the class of college basketball this season.
It is very, very difficult to go on a deep NCAA Tournament run as a 8 or 9 seed, and that’s why there have been more 10 and 11 seeds to go on runs than there have been 8 or 9 seed teams. It’s just so, so difficult to get past that game with a 1-seed. For that reason, the SEC Tournament is big for the Gators.
Florida would also love to end the season playing their best basketball.
You want to be hot going into postseason play. Florida is, well…not that. They’re actually fairly cold, coming off a few losses.
So, they have failed that goal going into the SEC Tournament but that doesn’t mean they need to go into the NCAA Tournament cold. Going on a run in the SEC Tournament would get Florida back to where they want to be, and that’s playing with confidence.
If Florida were to flame out and lose early, then enter the NCAA Tournament as an 8 or 9 seed… it’s tough to imagine them making much noise in the dance.
Playing Vanderbilt a third time could present challenges.
Florida has already beaten the Commodores twice this season but in those games Vanderbilt showed that they could give Florida some issues.
For starters, they have dropped pick and roll coverage which has been the recipe for slowing down the Gators’ offense all season. This style of conservative pick and roll defense protects the hoop and also doesn’t allow for any ball reversals or catch and shoot opportunities. For the Gators who want to use ball screens a lot to initiate their offense, drop coverage has completely stymied them.
On the other end, Vanderbilt diced up Florida’s hedging pick and roll defense with intelligent spacing and patient play from their guards. They’d string out Florida’s defense as the hedging big went out to the level of the ball, and then space the floor in a way they could meticulously pass the ball around until they got an open look at the rim. They have picked apart Florida’s pick and roll defense as well as anybody this year, even if it didn’t result in wins. Really, it was just Florida’s talent that won out as in a lot of ways Vanderbilt outplayed them. In meeting three, anything could happen. That’s also because…
Vanderbilt has started to take a ton of threes, and are hitting them.
Against Texas A&M they launched 34 threes and hit 12 of them, and hitting 35% of your threes at that kind of volume is a recipe for winning basketball.
It’s also a great equalizer for a team that knows they are going to be out-talented at a lot of positions. The three-point shot is a great equalizer, and it looks like they figured out that taking a lot of them could be their only opportunity to win.
Against Florida I’m expecting them to roll the dice and shoot as many threes as possible, hoping they have a hot shooting game. It could be their best shot at winning, and considering they got open look after open look with their pick and roll against Florida’s porous defense, it could be something they’re ready to exploit.
Of course, they also shot that well while…
Scotty Pippen Jr. had a rough night.
You might look at his 22 points and think Vanderbilt’s start guard played great, but his shooting numbers tell a different story. He shot 3-17 from the field, and 1-8 from three. The only way he was able to put up points was from the charity stripe where he went 15-15. The refs really helped him out in this one, and he could be due for a bounceback against Florida.
Pippen was outstanding against Florida in both meetings this season scoring 18 points in the first matchup and 32 in the second.
Most notably, in the second game where he had 32 points we saw a complete lack of respect for Scottie Lewis as a defender. Scotty Pippen went at him relentlessly, getting by him at every opportunity leading to a bucket. Florida didn’t have any better options, and Pippen showed repeatedly he was unbothered by Lewis as a defender.
If he gets hot again and the rest of the Commodores hit shots like they did against Texas A&M, Florida could be in trouble.
Have a great day everyone! Go Gators!