The Gators have three games under their belt and after a rough start against Army they seemed to really right the ship with two explosive performances against Boston College and Stetson.
Of course, this week is the first major challenge of the season as the Gators take on Florida State on Saturday (an early 11 AM tip to keep you entertained well before the football game) and the outcome of that one is going to have major implications as it relates to the trajectory of the season.
With one of the biggest games of the year upcoming, here are a few of my thoughts!
1) The lackluster performance against Army was an anomaly, and nothing much should be taken from that game.
When the Gators struggled from the opening tip against Army there was a lot of “here we go again” sentiment coming from Florida fans, and truthfully, that’s fair. The team hasn’t done anything in the last couple of years to warrant the benefit of the doubt, so when they came out and got punched in the mouth and required a miraculous effort from Tyree Appleby in the second half to barely sneak by a low end Patriot League team, criticism is fair.
However, after seeing how the Gators played against Boston College and Stetson, I think it’s fair to say that the effort against Army can simply be chalked up to rust, amplified by the fact that the Army team they were playing already had three games under their belt.
For example, Noah Locke wasn’t able to hit open shots against Army. In the two games after, he had hit over 60% of his threes (he mentioned he did not like the rims and ball they were using at the Mohegan Sun). The team struggled to move the ball offensively, but when they took on Boston College the ball was being swung around the perimeter effortlessly, giving a more realistic look at what this team’s DNA really is.
There were plenty of things that went wrong against Army but considering how quickly the Gators seemed to turn them around, it’s my opinion that the opening game jitters were nothing more than that and some rust. Additionally, we have to remember that the Gators weren’t able to practice with their entire roster even once the entire offseason due to COVID, so there was a lot of chemistry building on the fly.
2) It took me a little while to come around to this, but I now believe that the Florida State game is the biggest game of the season.
People have been saying for a couple of years now that the Florida State game is Florida’s most important game of the season, which has caused lots of frustration given the fact that Florida State has won 6 consecutive games. My thought was always that in basketball no non-conference game is ever going to be a team’s biggest game of the season, but that might not be an accurate way of looking at things.
Look, the fact of the matter is that there are a lot of Florida fans are football first, second, and third, and they need the basketball team to grab them by the collar and force them to pay attention.
When you lose to a rival 6 years in a row, that’s a great way to lose the interest of the casual fan early in the season. Once again in 2020, that will be the case once again. If the Gators lose, there will be a chunk of the Florida fanbase that will tune out of Florida basketball completely. Unfair? Maybe, but it’s the nature of the beast. To get the attention of casual fans you have to beat your rivals and perhaps more importantly you can’t get embarrassed by them and have a 6-game losing streak extend to 7.
If Florida does lose they’ll have plenty of opportunities to win other big games and get their NCAA Tournament resume to the point where a loss to Florida State, in Tallahassee even, won’t hurt them and it won’t be a detrimental loss, but in the eyes of fans it would be tough to bounce back from.
3) This Florida team has a great chance to break the curse and beat the Seminoles
When you look at why Florida has been dismantled by Florida State recently there have been several problems but the biggest is this–they have had no offensive weapons capable of making plays against the Seminole defense. Florida State’s defense is all about taking teams out of their offense and not allowing them to run plays and instead forcing players to play one on one basketball and score in isolation. In recent years, Florida has completely lacked options that could exploit this. Chris Chiozza, KeVaughn Allen, Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke…recently those have been the guards in Florida’s backcourt, and none of them have excelled at making plays one on one and scoring.
Fast forward to 2020 and the Gators have a few of those guys. Tre Mann is playing like the McDonald’s All-American that he was coming out of high school and Tyree Appleby is providing a spark off the bench with his quickness and ability to hit shots off the dribble. Both of those players will be capable of getting some separation in one on one matchups and that’s going to set the Gators up much better than past seasons for success.
Another huge advantage Florida State has had in recent seasons is in the height and length columns. While the Gators still roll out some undersized players in Tyree Appleby and Noah Locke (we’ll see if Ques Glover gets some burn) they’ve added Anthony Duruji, Niels Lane, Colin Castleton, and Samson Ruzhentsev who aren’t going to look like a JV team going against the Seminoles which has been the case in past seasons.
Am I predicting a Florida win? Ahh… I don’t think I can be so bold. But I do like this team’s chances far more than in past seasons.
4) Florida’s shot blocking is going to drastically improve the defense from a year ago.
When Mike White’s defenses were at their best a big part of it was the play of John Egbunu and then Kevarrius Hayes, two elite shot blockers.
When Hayes’ elite shot blocking was replaced with the, well, oftentimes non-existent shot blocking of Kerry Blackshear Jr. a year ago, the defense suffered greatly. The Gators play aggressively on the perimeter defensively, and that whole scheme relies on shot blocking on the back end to cover up any mistakes from aggression on the outside. Last season the Gators lacked that shot blocking, but this year it looks like they have 40 minutes of it.
Through three games the Gators are 3rd in the country in block percentage with Colin Castleton, Omar Payne, and Scottie Lewis all sporting top 400 individual block percentage numbers. Castleton has done it with length and positioning, Payne has done it with leaping ability, and Lewis has done it with quick recovery speed.
All in all, the Gators are erasing shots at the rim and by eliminating those high percentage attempts the defense is looking a lot better. Florida was a solid offensive team last season but their defense was the huge issue. They bring even more offense to the table this season but their defense will really establish what their ceiling is, and building from the inside out it looks like this team could be pretty good.
5) Don’t let Keyontae Johnson’s outstanding play go unnoticed.
Keyontae Johnson has been solid, reliable, and ohhh my goodness he’s averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal a game. For many of you that have even watched the games, that’s going to come as a surprise.
That’s because his production has come so quietly. Johnson rarely forces anything and always lets the game come to him, and that means much of his points, rebounds, and assists come quietly. It’s an admirable trait, but that style of play is something that is often going to make his game lack the attention it deserves.
Johnson was on the preseason watch list for every player of the year award, and quite frankly these types of awards are more narrative driven than statistically or otherwise. I’m not saying Johnson should be the player of the year, obviously it is far too early to make a claim like that, but if he gets anywhere near that discussion it’s going to be the job of all of us to hype him up and make sure people know just how good he is. His quiet demeanor isn’t going to command the spotlight like some other of college basketball’s biggest stars, but his game on the court should.
It’s been a long time since the Gators have had a player as productive as Keyontae Johnson, so don’t let his subtlety take away from your realization of just how good he is.