Under Mike White, reliance on freshmen has been the norm.
In 2017-18, the Gators expected contributions from Isaiah Stokes and Chase Johnson in the frontcourt and injuries and health concerns kept them both off the floor, leaving the Gators to play 6’5” Egor Koulechov in the frontcourt for long stretches.
In 2018-19, Florida put all their point guard eggs in the Andrew Nembhard basket, expecting him to be the day one starter. Noah Locke and Keyontae Johnson were expected to be key bench contributors as freshmen but ultimately ended up both starting alongside Nembard.
Then, in 2019-20 Scottie Lewis was expected to shoulder plenty of the load with Tre Mann projected as a starter, and the backup center role was to be filled by either Omar Payne or Jason Jitoboh.
Three straight seasons where the Gators banked heavily on freshmen, and three straight years where the Gators have fallen short of expectations, both theirs as well as the national media’s.
Looking at modern college basketball, being reliant on freshman is an incredibly shaky way to build a program. More often than not teams that lean on 5-star freshmen end up not being as good as advertised, most recently in 2020 with both Florida and Memphis ending the year nowhere near what the preseason expectations would suggest. The teams that have been dominant are older, more experienced rosters that have proven players who have shown they can ball at the high-major level.
For the first time since 2016, the Gators won’t be relying on freshmen. You can argue the specifics of how exactly the rotation will shake up, but the eight players expected to play the most minutes are:
Tyree Appleby and Anthony Duruji (Redshirt Juniors)
Keyontae Johnson, Noah Locke, and Colin Castleton (Juniors)
Scottie Lewis, Tre Mann, and Omar Payne (Sophomores)
Nowadays most coaches aren’t going much deeper than eight guys in big games and the fact Florida has a far more experienced eight then they’ve had in the last three seasons is certainly encouraging.
Even though they won’t be relied on for the Gators to have success, that doesn’t mean the Gators don’t have talented freshmen.
Samson Ruzhentsev and Niels Lane are the two incoming high school recruits and both of them come to the joy of Florida’s coaching staff who are extremely high on both players.
Ruzhentsev is a 6’7” wing originally from Russia who played high school at powerhouse Tennessee program Hamilton Heights. In his senior year Hamilton Heights was one of the best teams in the country and Ruzhentsev was arguably their best player. This resulted in him becoming a top-50 recruit, one that many expected would end up as a 5-star by the time all was said and done. He’s a talented scorer, someone who has a great handle for his size but most excitingly can shoot the lights out. Mike White said in an offseason press conference that he can knock down shots “like Noah Locke,” something he cautiously walked back on considering the fact that Noah Locke enters the 2020-21 season as arguably the best shooter in the country. Even if Ruzhentsev isn’t exactly at Locke’s level, i.e. otherworldly, even if he’s a well above average shooter that’s deadly from a wing that’s 6’7”. Ruzhentsev is also super explosive and threw down his fair share of poster dunks in high school and that athleticism should help him hang early in his time in the SEC.
Niels Lane is a stout 6’5”, 205 pound guard from New Jersey. Lane was on track to be a top-100 recruit when a series of unfortunate events derailed his high school career. Injuries and mono held him out of a key summer basketball circuit as well as most of his senior season, something that saw him fall out of the recruiting spotlight a bit. Though his misfortune led to some coaches backing off his recruitment Florida never waivered, seeing a player that Mike White perfectly envisioned on his roster. That’s probably because Lane is a dogged defender, someone who clamps opposing guards with his length and lateral quickness. If a larger player tries to drive at him and initiate contact, he’s got the bulk to take the contact and remain on balance. Lane also has many believers in his offensive game, though at times it does look somewhat limited. He’s played a lot as a point guard and demonstrated an above-average handle for a physical 6’5” defender and has shown flashes as a more than capable three-point shooter.
Quality play will always get an athlete on the floor, no matter how crowded the rotation is. If one or both of these players finds their rhythm and can contribute when they come off the bench, they’ll command minutes. What makes this season different from the last three is that these freshmen won’t be pressed into service into a role that might be too big for them from day one, and that could help bring the best out of them not only in the short but long term. Coming off the bench in low pressure roles is the perfect opportunity for freshmen to get their feet wet in college basketball and with neither needing to shoulder primary roles offensively they’ll be able to pick their spots and find where their shots are going to come from in the offense.
While neither Ruzhentsev or Lane will be required to play major minutes, both will be looking to make a splash in their first season in Gainesville and would love to find themselves in the tight top eight rotation. With both players looking to carve out roles, which player has the chance to play more?
In terms of offensive skill set, Ruzhentsev is ahead of Lane. He was a consistent shooter throughout high school with one of the purest releases you’ll ever see and if Mike White’s “knocking down shots like Noah Locke” comment is an indication his shooting in Gainesville has been no different. Shooting like that from a player that’s 6’7” is rare and incredibly valuable and if he is truly a 40%+ three-point shooter it’s going to be hard for him not to get good minutes. What’s great about Ruzhentsev is that as much attention as his shooting gets, which is more than deserved, he has plenty of diversity to his offensive game. His handle allows him to take bigger players off the dribble, and he’ll be more than comfortable handling it on the fast break if the Gators end up playing as fast as Coach White wants them to.
Lane’s offensive game is somewhat of a question mark at this point due to the fact he played a lot of point guard in high school but that doesn’t totally project what he’ll be at the college level. His handle is pretty good but not awfully advanced if you look at it through the lens of an SEC point guard and he doesn’t look like a great shooter–yet. His best offensive attribute will be his ability to drive in straight lines and finish through contact, something that’s needed on this Florida team but not something so valuable that he’ll be armwrestling away touches from other players.
In terms of defense, Lane is superior. He looks far more comfortable in a stance, getting low and exploding side to side to match the movements of an attacking offensive player. Paired with his athletic gifts and good size is the perfect mindset–a desire to lock down whoever he’s matched up with. White has openly been a defense-first coach throughout his career and if that continues he might really value having Lane out there dogging opposing guards. Ruzhentsev has good explosiveness as an athlete but he isn’t long (an equal wingspan to his 6’7” frame) so he’s not as physically intimidating defensively as most wings his height. He sometimes stands a bit straight up and that hurts his lateral quickness.
In a vacuum, Ruzhentsev is probably the more polished player of the two and for that reason could be expected to play more minutes. Shooting is more valuable than ever and he brings that and he has good size at the small forward spot or even great size if White tinkers and decides to try him at shooting guard. The problem for Ruzhentsev will be the dudes he’s playing behind. His best position will be small forward, though he may dabble as a small-ball four or perhaps shooting guard. At his natural small forward position he’ll be behind some combination of Scottie Lewis, Keyontae Johnson, and Anthony Duruji. That also goes for his possible stretches at the four or even the two, and it’s tough to imagine him getting a lot of run behind three of Florida’s most valuable players.
Florida’s roster breakdown might lend Lane to have the edge in terms of possible role. He’s best off at the two, playing behind some combination of Noah Locke and Tre Mann. It’s possible Mann ends up playing more of his minutes at point guard, and Noah Locke could have his hip injury flare up and open up minutes at the position. Additionally, Lane brings more of a change of pace at the two-guard spot than Ruzhentsev does at the three. Locke is a fantastic shooter, one of the best in the country, but he doesn’t have much ball handling or distribution ability. He’s an intelligent defender, but not one you could classify as elite. Lane coming in for Locke would bring a lot more secondary ball handling and more defensive energy especially when guarding the ball. Lane will generally be competing with less players for minutes which paves the way for him to potentially get more minutes than Ruzhentev.
Of course, in this incredibly bizarre season you never know when Florida’s roster could be shaken up due to something out of their control and players could end up missing unexpected games. How that ends up happening could also have a big impact on who plays, but it’s at least comforting knowing the Gators have these two freshmen ready to contribute if needed. These two freshmen might not be as heralded as some of the incomers over the last few seasons but they’re still tremendous players who could be incredibly valuable to the Gators in their first seasons. They might not play as big of a role as Scottie Lewis or Tre Mann did a year ago and they might not be leaned on as heavily as Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke, and Keyontae Johnson were as freshmen but they’re an exciting pair of players you should look forward to getting to know.