Well that was fun, wasn’t it? There are some caveats we’ll get into later, but the Gators dropped a train on Georgia to the tune of 44-28, and it could’ve been worse for reasons we’ll also get into later. You wanted a breakthrough win? You got it. Here are the fine points of how it happened.
This review is based on Bill Connelly’s Five Factors of winning, and sacks are counted as pass plays. This doesn’t include the kneel-downs at the ends of the two halves.
Explosiveness
Everyone has a different definition for what counts as an “explosive play”, but I go with runs of at least 12 yards and passes of at least 16 yards.
| Team | Runs 12+ | Pct. | Passes 16+ | Pct. | Explosive Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 0 | 0.0% | 11 | 26.8% | 14.9% |
| Georgia | 5 | 20.0% | 3 | 9.4% | 14.0% |
Florida’s run game didn’t have much to offer in this one except that it existed just enough to keep the pass open. That’s all the Gators needed from it, and they got it. The explosive pass rate is spectacular, though, as it’s even higher than the 21.2% that Alabama had against the Bulldogs earlier this year. On the one hand, yes, the UGA defense was banged up and got worse after targeting took out Lewis Cine. On the other, injuries weren’t the reason Georgia was utterly baffled by the wheel route.
It’s weird to think that the Bulldogs’ explosive rate was about the same as Florida’s for the game, but it was. How? For one thing, UGA didn’t run that many plays (58, versus 80 for UF). Percentages go up as the denominator gets smaller. For another, three of the eight explosive plays came on the opening two drives that supplied Georgia half of both its points and yards. Four of the remaining five came in the second half as Florida was just trying to preserve the lead. That’s how.
Efficiency
The main measure here is success rate. Watch this short video if you need to brush up on it.
| Team | Run SR | Pass SR | Overall SR | Red Zone SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 22.9% | 56.8% | 41.8% | 27.3% |
| Georgia | 36.0% | 15.6% | 24.6% | 0.0% |
The only consistently efficient offensive aspect to this game was the Florida pass attack, and it was very, very efficient. Everything else was below-to-well-below average in this department. For perspective on that hideous number for UGA’s passing, last year Vanderbilt managed an 18.5% success rate through the air against Florida. Vandy! Georgia really might’ve been better handing off all game, and that’s even considering game state and the defensive adjustments the Gators would’ve made.
| Team | 1Q SR | 2Q SR | 3Q SR | 4Q SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 52.4% | 48.0% | 41.7% | 23.8% |
| Georgia | 30.8% | 9.1% | 41.2% | 12.5% |
The Gators’ efficiency did dip in the second half, and the scoring followed it downward. They still moved the ball, but things just stalled out more.
UF threw 57% of the time in the first half and 55% in the second, so it’s not that Dan Mullen ran way too much after the break and that was the cause. One real change, though, was that Mullen called runs on consecutive first and second downs way more often in the final two frames, and UF couldn’t run the ball with any degree of consistency.
Mullen went run-run on first and second down once in the first half, with Malik Davis going for no gain both times. Kyle Trask’s pick-six due to Xavier Henderson running the wrong route came on the following play. Mullen went run-run five times after the break, and four of those cases precipitated the end of a drive.
The exception that proved the rule came on the third series when Emory Jones picked up ten yards on 2nd & 7. Unless Jones was bailing out the decision making, going conservative with run-run on first and second down was a drive killer against UGA. Mullen did it too often to have a chance at running up the score, but it did help to run clock, I guess.
Efficiency by Player
| Player | Comp. Pct. | Pass Eff. | Yards/Att | Sacks | Pass SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Trask | 69.8% | 188.4 | 11.0 | 1 | 56.8% |
| Stetson Bennett | 31.3% | 80.3 | 4.9 | 0 | 25.0% |
| D’Wan Mathis | 30.8% | 47.4 | 2.6 | 3 | 6.3% |
Football in 2020 is a quarterback’s game. One team has a great one. The other doesn’t have even an average one. If not for the Gator defense starting off slowly and that bad route from Henderson, this wouldn’t have been anywhere as close as it even was.
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Yards/Target | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 10 | 7 | 42 | 4.2 | 30.0% |
| Malik Davis | 5 | 5 | 100 | 20.0 | 100.0% |
| Justin Shorter | 5 | 3 | 32 | 6.4 | 60.0% |
| Jacob Copeland | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| Nay’Quan Wright | 3 | 3 | 71 | 23.7 | 100.0% |
| Kemore Gamble | 3 | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 100.0% |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 2 | 41 | 13.7 | 66.7% |
| Trevon Grimes | 3 | 2 | 27 | 9.0 | 66.7% |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 2 | 59 | 29.5 | 100.0% |
| Trent Whittemore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 50.0% |
| Keon Zipperer | 1 | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 100.0% |
| Xavier Henderson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
It may have been less obvious with Shorter and Grimes catching touchdowns — which I’ll go out on a limb and say is important — but the wide receivers didn’t do a whole lot in this one. UGA was bound and determined to make sure Toney didn’t beat them, and they succeeded on that mark. Beyond just him, not a single UF receiver topped Grimes’s 9.0 yards per target.
The story was not only the running backs being terrific in the passing game but the tight ends as well. Gamble and Zipperer may be less theatrical with their catches than some of Pitts’s grabs, but their combined 22.5 yards per catch was great. While the offense is better with Pitts than without, Gamble caught his touchdown two plays after Pitts went out. I think there’s a case that the run-run sequences on first and second down hamstrung the offense more in the second half than Pitts being out did.
| Player | Carries | YPC | Rushing SR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 3.5 | 26.7% |
| Malik Davis | 9 | 2.3 | 11.1% |
| Nay’Quan Wright | 5 | 3.0 | 40.0% |
| Kadarius Toney | 3 | -0.7 | 0.0% |
| Emory Jones | 2 | 8.5 | 50.0% |
| Kyle Trask | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0% |
Only two rushes went for a loss, and just three more went for no gain. There were no fumbles. That’s about the most you can say for the UF rushing game. Fortunately, all Florida needed was for the run to not be a net negative. It mostly was. I know I keep harping on the ineffective run-run sequences after the half, but that’s a ding to Mullen, not the guys playing. We knew what the run was by then. It just had to keep the defense occupied enough to not drop seven or eight on every snap, and it did exactly that but no more.
Field Position
| Team | Avg. Starting Position | Plays in Opp. Territory | Pct. Of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Own 30 | 36 | 45.6% |
| Georgia | Own 27 | 15 | 26.3% |
In the first half, UGA won the average starting position battle with it getting the ball on its own 30 and UF on just its own 23. It didn’t matter, though, as the Gator offense couldn’t be stopped for much of the half. Shawn Davis’s pick that he returned to the Georgia 16-yard line makes up for most of the difference here. Without it, UF’s ASP was its own 26.
Finishing Drives
A trip inside the 40 is a drive where the team has a first down at the opponent’s 40 or closer or where it scores from further out than that. A red zone trip is a drive with a first down at the opponent’s 20 or closer.
| Team | Drives | Trips Inside 40 | Points | Red Zone Trips | Points | Pts./Drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 14 | 10 | 44 | 3 | 17 | 3.14 |
| Georgia | 13 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.62 |
To put this in perspective, the fifth-most points per drive scored against Georgia since the start of 2019 was ’19 Notre Dame at 1.55. Fourth-most was Florida last year at 2.43. This game’s performance comes in third, and it bumps up to 3.36 if Evan McPherson doesn’t miss that one field goal. Second-most was Alabama earlier this year at 3.42, and way out ahead at 3.70 was LSU last year (which also missed a field goal that would’ve put them up to an even 4.00).
If Mullen had kept his foot on the gas in the second half as he admittedly did not do, the Gators could’ve made a run at first on this list. Getting to 48 points would’ve passed up Bama, and 52 would’ve passed up last year’s Bayou Bengals. Scoring just half of the 38 first half points after the break would’ve gotten Florida to 57 total and 4.07 per drive.
Turnovers
Trask’s interception was it for the Gators, though he tried hard to throw another one in the second half. Georgia’s quarterbacks combined for three picks, and Florida only cashed them in for a single field goal. The last of them mercifully put an end to the game, though.
Overall
I’m not sure how this game would’ve gone with both team at full-strength. What even is “full strength” in 2020, anyway? Does that include Jamie Newman or not?
A UGA team with the defense it fielded against Alabama would’ve provided stiffer resistance, and I think nose tackle Jordan Davis was the single biggest factor. With him out, Trask seldom felt pressure. With him in, the UF rushing game might’ve gone from a wash to a strong negative. I think Florida still wins against a full-strength defense because Georgia never fully adjusted to what Mullen was doing, but it would’ve been a game. And with Newman in a non-pandemic year, it’s even less of a sure thing for the Gators.
Florida had to get this game for the sake of program momentum under Mullen, especially once Bulldog defenders started going out in increasing numbers against Kentucky. It got it with an exclamation point. Even shorthanded Georgia is not down to where, say, Tennessee has ended up this season, so the Gators didn’t get to do everything they wanted to. Overthrows and drops helped a defense that let too many receiving targets get open as well.
I don’t know how much this victory does or doesn’t project into the future. It does show that when UGA doesn’t have a clear talent advantage as it did the past two seasons, Mullen can best Kirby Smart with room to spare. The ability of Mullen and his staff to develop players was on full display, particularly behind center in comparison to the opponent. I can give Mathis a mulligan as he missed a lot of last year due to brain surgery, but Bennett doesn’t play even up to his low 3-star Composite rating coming out of JUCO.
If Mullen can use this win to finish strong in recruiting this year and build towards the 2022 class, it will pay big dividends. I’ll take Mullen over Smart on an even playing field every time. Anyone who wanted proof now has it. Mullen crafted a game plan that accentuated his team’s strengths, minimized its weaknesses, and took advantage of matchups that prior opponents had not yet exploited. Florida was the better team on Saturday, and it wasn’t close.