The size of Florida’s 2021 recruiting class remains at 20 after losing and then gaining defensive back commits. A 4-star, Clinton Burton Jr., left the class just before a 3-star, Donovan McMillan, joined it.
So it goes for Dan Mullen’s recruiting these days. After a promising start to the 2021 cycle, UF is settling into a high ranking based more on quantity than quality.
As I write this Sunday afternoon, the Gators sit at tenth in the 247 Sports Composite. The average player ranking is 89.40, which is also the lowest of the top ten. No. 8 Michigan (20 commits, 89.48) and No. 3 Tennessee (23, 89.91) also are up there based more on size than anything else, so UF is not alone.
However with ten 4-stars and ten 3-stars, Mullen isn’t exactly running up the score on his Blue Chip Ratio. We don’t even need to parse the well-established elite recruiters of Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia. I just see other classes like LSU, with 14 of 15 non-specialist commits being blue chips, and Oregon, with 13 of 17 commits being blue chips, and remember wistfully the days when the Gators were never close to breaking even in the Ratio with this many commits on board.
To a certain extent, Mullen and his staff’s history of finding diamonds in the rough and developing lower-rated players into NFL prospects at Mississippi State should buy them a little slack. We don’t have a ton of time to go on with their time in Gainesville, but here’s a quick assessment of their Composite 3-star signees at Florida.
2018 Class
Noah Banks: JUCO OL signee who provided depth in 2018 but medically retired before 2019.
John Huggins: Was in contention for the starting spot at Star in 2019 but was dismissed in the summer prior to the season.
Chris Bleich: Started a number of games in 2019 but clearly struggled due to a lack of agility. Abruptly left the program after the Georgia game and wound up at Syracuse, which is closer to his home in Pennsylvania than UF is.
Randy Russell: A heart condition discovered shortly after he enrolled ended his career.
Dante Lang: Signed as a blocking tight end, has mostly served as a blocker in limited action.
Griffin McDowell: Originally committed to Mullen at MSU, was signed to be a center for the future. Scooter accident in early 2019 prevented him from participating in spring practice, but did appear on special teams in every game in the fall. Appears to have moved to guard.
Evan McPherson: Another MSU flip, has locked down the kicking job with excellent performance. Almost shouldn’t count here since kickers and punters never get above 3-star ratings.
2019 Class
Chester Kimbrough: Appeared in eight games as a true freshman reserve and is expected to fight for more playing time at corner and/or star this year.
Dionte Marks: Redshirted behind the many wide receiver veterans in ’19 and recently entered the transfer portal.
Riley Simonds: Offensive guard signee who redshirted and isn’t expected to contend for playing time this year.
Ja’markis Weston: Another WR who redshirted. Was the subject of media stories about being potentially a real find for Florida out of tiny Clewiston, though the McElwain staff found him first.
Kingsley Eguakun: Redshirted but passed up McDowell as the center of the future. Is expected to top the depth chart there after Brett Heggie and Tanner Rowell graduate this year.
Jesiah Pierre: Redshirted in ’19 and has no real buzz for contending for a linebacker spot in ’20.
Trent Whittemore: Got some notice as maybe the most college-ready of the three 2019 receiver signees but only appeared in two games to Weston’s three.
Ethan White: Worked on a remarkable physical transformation to drop weight and get college-ready and worked his way into regular playing time after Bleich left. Expected to start in 2020.
Summing It Up
Setting Russell aside — and Banks too, since he had just two years of eligibility when signing anyway — that’s 13 signees below blue chip grade across the first two Mullen signing classes. There were six more, one being a punter, in 2020, but they obviously haven’t had a chance to show anything yet.
Three of the 13 have already gone, one to dismissal and two to transfer. That’s basically a quarter of them out of the program.
McPherson and White project as starters this year, while Kimbrough and Lang appear to be regular rotation guys. So, almost a third of them are ones who figure to see the field regularly if/when the 2020 season happens.
Eguakun, Weston, and Whittemore appear to be in the waiting-their-turn category. Eguakun seems the most sure for future playing time given that the two receivers will have to contend with highly rated 2020 signees Xzavier Henderson and Jaquavion Fraziars.
Then we have McDowell, Simonds, and Pierre in the unclear-path-to-playing-time bucket. McDowell at least did appear in every game last year, so he has contributed some already. However White has one of the guard spots basically locked down for a couple more years, so McDowell and Simonds will have to compete with each other and more for the other guard spot come 2021. Todd Grantham likes to use a rotation so Pierre may work his way into it in a few years, but the defense only calls for two linebackers of his kind at a time. He’ll have to contend with the likes of Mohamoud Diabate and Derek Wingo, and I’m not sure I like his odds.
Not every signee can or will be a star. Sometimes you need depth guys like Lang. He was never going to be a Kyle Pitts or Keon Zipperer, but he has a role in jumbo or goal line packages that those two don’t fit as well.
But as long as UF is going to sign more 3-stars than the teams it competes against do, it needs some of them to play like blue chip guys. White is the only one who’s really come through on that, excluding McPherson here because there basically are never blue chip kickers for anyone to sign. Huggins might have done it, but he earned his dismissal.
Kind of the deal with the developmental model is that it may take years for guys like a Weston or Eguakun to break into the lineup and perform at a high level. It’s hard to be patient in this day and age when head coaches are now getting fired after two seasons.
There is commitment to Mullen in the administration, and two straight New Year’s Six bowl wins have bought him plenty of goodwill. He doesn’t need Whittemore to be a Biletnikoff contender or risk losing his job. He will get time to prove he knew what he was doing.
After all, Mullen made good on a number of McElwain 3-star signees. There were real gripes about how many the past regime signed, but Jachai Polite, Lamical Perine, and others turned in terrific seasons in the last two years.
This year would’ve been one for more of Mullen’s non-blue chippers to prove their worth. Let’s hope we get to see them have the chance to do it.