Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by 96Gatorcise, Dec 24, 2018.
Shocked, I tell you, simply shocked.
I didnt think Russia had an agricultural excess that they could export. Russia is a net food importer. Putin is just blowing smoke.
Price for soybeans gets high enough and they will become heavier exports of that product and lighter importers. Especially as our farmers have to lower the price of other food products on the global scale, making soybeans relatively more attractive for somebody like Russia to produce. As the supply and demand curves shift, it would be the expected outcome. But yeah, there is a certain amount of trolling going on from Putin here too.
I'm still waiting, as is mdgator, to hear about this Obama/Soros oil scam deal that Rick brought up............crickets......
primary interest was access to Chinese markets
likely referring to the Ex-Im bank sweetheart loan deal to Petrobas in 2009 to drill for deepwater oil off of Brazil. Soros had a major interest in Petrobas at the time that he had purchased less than a year before the Ex - Im bank announced the $2B loan at very favorable terms to Petrobas and at the same time O put a moratorium on any new GOM leases.
If that is the case, then we have a huge failure to understand what happened.
Dispelling the Brazil Oil Loan Myth as Obama Heads to Rio
Basically, the EX-Im Bank agreed to guarantee a loan at a US bank if they agreed to use that money to purchase goods and services in the US. That will lower their interest rate in the US somewhat, but restricts where they can buy goods. Which is why they weren't exactly stampeding to get the debt from US banks, taking a small proportion from JP Morgan years later (~$300 million of the $2 Billion guaranteed).
Here, while G8trGr8t backpedals his way to the edit button, let me help:
Nothing to backpedal from. I didnt say it was a correct narrative just that it was likely what someone else was referring to. Sorry to take away your easy target though
Yes, once oil collapsed and shale oil hit the market that deepwater oil lost its ROR
They had over 5 years in which to invest before the price of oil fell. Maybe they saw 5 years into the future, but I think the more likely explanation was that they take these deals all of the time to provide them more flexibility in the future even if they really don't care about them and tend not to use them when there isn't a specific project in mind, due to the restrictions attached.
Republicans and trump better be careful here. This is their base they're screwing over. Some might be so invested in politics that they think they don't mind losing their livelihood, but it's one thing to say and it's another to live it.
Iowa soybean farmer on shutdown: "It's not worth putting up the wall to put us in this situation"
"So the price drop off on soybeans together with the government shutdown is like a double whammy," Reynolds said.
The government shutdown means farmers are sort of flying blind, lacking the supply-and-demand information that the now-closed Agriculture Department would be providing them and allowing them to plan ahead. In three months, the dusty fields should be filled with crops. But how much to plant – no one is really sure.
The government was in the midst of subsidizing farmers for lost markets in China, but payments from about $9.5 billion in federal aid set aside were suspended when the government shut down. The president plans to visit New Orleans on Monday to address the American Farm Bureau, as farmers are feeling the impact.
"We're used to weather factors being out of our control. We try to deal with those the best we can," Lehman said. "The patience runs thin for farmers when it seems like there are... crisis that's invented or something that can be completely
Louisiana soybean farmers leaving their crops unharvested to rot:
CNBC: Tariffs force tough choices in Louisiana as farmers leave soybeans in fields to rot
Daniel Richard stands in a 250-acre field, surveying the ruins of his hard work: Rotting soybeans as far as the eye can see.
“We’re in unchartered waters,” says the fourth-generation Louisiana grain farmer. “We’ve been through tough times, but definitely nothing of this magnitude.”
This is just one field Richard had to leave unharvested. In total, about 800 acres, 40 percent of his crop, sit dried out and useless.
“We lost the demand in the market with the tariffs. There were no exports. They weren’t shipping out. China wasn’t buying, of course China buys about, a little over 50 percent of our crop.”
"But he still supports President Donald Trump, for whom he and 65 percent of his neighbors voted."
I feel bad for the 35% who didn't vote for trump, but for those who did, this is what they signed up for. The sacrifice of their family farms will help make America great again. They should be happy to bear that burden.
"It's not fair to you, and we all get that, but this is so much bigger than any one person. It is a little bit of pain but it's going to be for the future of our country, and their children and their grandchildren and generations after them will thank them for their sacrifice right now. "
-- Lara Trump, 1/23/19
But he still supports President Donald Trump, for whom he and 65 percent of his neighbors voted.
That was 4 months ago. Now, it appears China's economy is on the precipice.
There's a reason why Trump went after China....China before Trump was set on bankrupting the US by pillaging everything we manufacture. China was on course by 2022 to completely gut the US in every single area of manufacturing. Keep in mind our military equipment has a big fat 'Made In China' on it. All China has to do is triple the tariff imposed on electronics and we go poof. No choice but slash the budget. We were in a trade war with China long before the original Apprentice aired. This Cold War can be easily won by China if they get rid of Trump and let the status quo continue. It's a slow death and one that China would have been patient even if it took 50 years to do it.
Pork chop hill in Korea was fought over with an armistice ready to be signed
The Chinese wanted it to say they won and we had to kill a ton of Chinese to keep it
Losing quite a few of our own
Read Chinas 2025 plan where they were taking over including us, Six years from now
Trump stopped that Bs and you don’t know how lucky you are to have him
Those recent floods did our farmer's no favors. A lot of those soybeans sitting in storage were ruined. And of course the farmers have their hands out for more of the government money. Some forms of "socialism" are more palatable to trump supporters and Republicans than others I guess.
Farmers won't be compensated for millions of dollars of soybeans lost after floods and trade war
There's nothing the government can do about the millions of bushels of damaged crops in Iowa and other flooded states, since the Department of Agriculture has no program that covers the catastrophic and largely uninsured stored-crop losses from the widespread flooding that was triggered by the "bomb cyclone" that hit the region in mid-March.
Some Congress members have expressed interest in pursuing legislation to provide aid for damaged crops in storage, Northey said. But passing legislation could require a lengthy political process in the face of an urgent disaster, Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, told farmers at a meeting in Malvern, Iowa.
With farm incomes declining for years before the flood, many farmers had planned to sell their grain in storage for money to live, pay their taxes or finance operations, including planting this spring.
Farmers will have to destroy any grains that were contaminated by floodwater, which could also prevent some growers from planting oversaturated fields.
A more in depth look at how the trade war is hurting America's famers (although they still support trump). South America is looking like it's going to have a record year for soybeans. I wouldn't count on the U.S. ever getting all that business back, but by the time that's obvious trump will be long gone and the farmers will probably blame whatever Democrat is convenient.
Trump’s Trade War Is Hurting Farmers, But They Still Think He Can Win It
One open question is whether business will revert to normal if tariffs are lifted. History has shown that even a short interruption in the supply of a commodity can have long-term consequences for American farmers. A U.S. trade spat with Japan in the 1980s that lasted only days helped trigger an increase of investment in Brazil’s soybean sector, now the biggest U.S. competitor for that crop. China’s punitive tariffs on U.S. soybean imports have prompted pig farmers on the mainland to find alternative sources of feed, says Veronica Nigh, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation. It’s not clear whether they’ll ever resume purchases on the same scale, even if Beijing commits to buying more U.S. soybeans as part of a trade deal.
Daniel Kowalski, a vice president of agricultural lender CoBank ACB, worries that one of the most enduring effects of the trade war may be the expansion in crop production from South America to the Black Sea “to fill space we vacated.” The reality is that, under Trump, the U.S. has so far been losing more access to lucrative agricultural export markets than it’s been gaining. The president’s withdrawal from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership immediately after he took office left U.S. beef and pork producers at a disadvantage in Japan, as well as in fast-growing economies such as Vietnam, vs. competitors in Australia and New Zealand, which remain in the TPP. European Union farmers are also benefiting from a trade pact with Japan that went into effect on Feb. 1.
In Ville Platte, La., Richard Fontenot tills land his family has tended for five generations. The souring of the export relationship with China last year cost him $300,000 in the form of 1,000 acres of soybeans he was forced to leave in the field to rot because the grain bins on his property were already full, as were the export-driven elevators he sells to. Insurance covered some of the losses, but when he tried to tap into the aid the Trump administration made available for farmers hurt by the trade wars, he was told he wasn’t eligible because he hadn’t harvested the crop. So there’s been belt-tightening. Instead of shelling out $300,000 for a used combine as planned, Fontenot spent $30,000 to rehab his existing machine. “I had a crop in the field that I couldn’t export because of the tariffs,” he says.
For Lorenda Overman, 2018 was the worst year she’s seen in the 37 since she married a farmer and moved onto the patch of North Carolina that her husband’s family has owned and nurtured since before the Revolutionary War. There was the economic storm that came in the form of the trade wars, and then there was Hurricane Florence, which turned harvest time into a scramble to salvage crops. For the first time, the Overmans had to delay writing the monthly checks that support the families of two of their grown children, who live and work alongside them on the farm. “You are taking the food right out of the mouths of your grandchildren,” she says.
Just intuition but I have feeling that if their situation does not significantly improve by next year the farmers that have been sticking with Trump will start abandoning him. They're going to discover that like the "students" of Trump University, the investors in shares of Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts and the contractors and lenders who did business with the Trump organization they've been conned by the master.