Who is turning pro from this year's team?

Based on what I know with regards to the TJ surgery/rehab protocol and matching it to what I have seen from Barco as a pitcher I tend to agree with Lurk. I would be looking at probably an 18 month window.

 

"Like I said, I am not a doctor"

Yes but did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

 

Nesbitt and Pogue were 12-13 no? What would be different with Barco? If you’re saying 18 months until he is 100% with regards to Velocity I would agree. The kids I’ve known (4) that have had it were all 11-12 months. One went 13 months but all were pitching competitively and quite well I might add at the 12 month mark.

 

Maybe, that’d be a great place to go. Asking around to get opinions but unfortunately see him slipping. Maybe he does go rounds 3-5 but I’d be shocked and wrong. His injury is undeniable and he will not pitch for an least 11 more months. Interesting to see whether it was be done by the same doctor that did Nesbitt and Pogue. I say that because neither has regained their full velocity and they are now 18 months removed from their surgery. Both are 3-4 miles an hour under where they were when they last pitched before their surgery. do major league teams look at that and make determinations on the doctor that did it? It’s not beyond a major league team to be concerned about Barco not regaining his velocity 18 months later like these two did.

 

I was talking back to full game speed. Power guys like Pogue usually takes 24 months. Finesse or location pitchers normally don’t take as long-usually around 18 months back to full game speed.
Pogue was at 15 months.

 

So both Pogue and Nesbitt still have a ways to go. If it’s 18-24 months until back to full 100% I’d say even more I’d be surprised if Barco goes as high as projected. Also surprised by some that have come back and looked really good at the year mark. Could have been good luck and sounds like they were rushed a little.

 

Barco becomes a bargain by going in a lower round than talent would dictate due to injury, but agree a top program that drafts later in the round more likely a destination, if they believe they can sign. Fabian had a better year statistically and defensively than prior year, but teams may be wary to draft, if they don’t think they can sign for slot money with other draft pick needs. Red Sox challenges signing him last year could scare some teams.

 

I have no idea how it may play out but if I were MLB GM, the first Gators player on my list would be Thompson- a smart, mature hitter who has a good shot at making the big show in a good way. (John Olerud career potential). Next, would be Barco- likely in second round but some one will take a flyer. Next, Jud in mid second round because he has natural power and is great fielder and pros can work on his mechanics and after Jud, Sproat -- late 2nd round or 3rd. That is assuming Langford not putting his name out there as interested. One more year for Wyatt would be good for us and him, in my view. BT could be a 5-6 round guy. Everyone else draft eligible will likely not be taken until very late or not at all.

 

Gone:
Sproat and Sterlin Thompson getting very high 6 figs or low 7 figures.
Jud lost 1 million dollars but he got to play a buncha games with his brother and will still get high 6 figs. (Not a big league hitter under any circumstance-currently) Riopelle getting mid 6 figures. Barco will be steal of the draft. He’ll get mid/high 6 figs. Pre Tommy J, he was gonna see 2 million +.

Tweener- Rivera. Plus defense. Above Average power. Zero % chance to hit anything with a wood bat, but a team may take a flyer on him 7-10 round. If he gets offered over $100,000, he should immediately sign. He will never hit a professional pitcher and needs to take the $$ asap.

Staying : everyone else.

 

I keep asking…. Will a team spend a third, 4th, or 5th round pick on Barco knowing he won’t be “right” for at least a year. Big risk to spend a 4th round pick on. He’s not healthy arm wise. And for all of the stuff we heard about guys coming back from Tommy John and throwing harder there is Nesbitt and Pogue. Both now 16 full months removed from surgery and 3-4 mph less than they were before surgery. Even if they get back to the 92/93 they were before… When talking about Barco would a major league team really spend a high draft pick on him and be prepared to wait two years for him to be back to normal? That’s saying Barco will be close to 24 when back to normal hopefully if you say the velo will come back after 24 months. Him sitting 88 is slot different than 90-92. Avg big league fastball is 93 now so you better have great stuff if 87-88.

 

shane—

I hate to say it this way but it sounds like you’re asking for absolute answers on a slip-slide slope. Everything you’re asking about is based completely on the individual involved and what his body allows him to do with his rehab recovery.

Also every MLB organization looks at every aspect of the game within their own perspective. In the case of Barco, he, his family, and his agent would want to be working with one of the organizations that have a positive attitude towards TJ rehab protocols.

I think it’s pretty much futile to speculate MPH #’s in advance of completion of the rehab protocol, but that’s just me.

 

We now have lots of data with TJ recovery. Barco was never a power pitcher. He had a decent fastball that he could locate along with other pitches.

In other words the guy could pitch.

I would expect that after his TJ recovery.

He will get drafted and I hope it is from a team that knows how to deal with him.

 

Sproat has made himself big money. I would not at all be surprised to see he and Barco switch spots.

 

What you state is why I’d be surprised if he goes as high as he’s being projected….because there are no certainties and no “for sure” answers when your injured, especially his injury. I’d rather see him go in the 6th round to a team with patience than the 3rd to a team that doesn’t have the understanding and patience.

 

Great information/analysis. Its long been my impression though, when the mid-level players get drafted they go. Maybe I'm wrong or overstating it but always surprised at the guys that want to go instead of returning to potentially produce better numbers..

 

They only have leverage for one year (excluding kids that were here in 2020). Coming back and having a good year doesn’t necessarily mean more money, and could just as easily mean less. Look at a guy like Hickey last year who got way over slot. Even if he’d been drafted higher the following year, he may not have gotten the same money. They’re projecting these guys out years and the money usually just doesn’t change that much because of one good year in college. It can, but for most it won’t. They’re usually best off getting what they can while they have the negotiating power.

Different from football. A big breakout season there can move you way up the board, you don’t get over slot if you get taken low, and they want you on the field this year, not 5 years down the road. Lower drafted guys are much more likely to get cut, sometimes before the first season.

 

Fabian drafted in first 3 rounds?? I think maybe 7-10 rounds

 

I would draft him higher and fine him for every outside pitch he tried to pull.

 

For all potential draftees it’s all about signability which will be based on the pre-draft bonus expectations that each player will put out to scouts. I’m sure you know this but the MLB draft isn’t about selecting the best 600 high school and college players eligible but instead the top 600 players who are willing to sign within the parameters set by MLB.

 

Missed this one by about 250 picks