What's going on with Lagway?

Shrug. I don’t know. Haven’t been watching any lines. If you can’t find it, it’s gone.

 

You’re right about all of this 95, but none of this makes Vegas predictions less accurate. In fact, having large groups with stakes is what make betting lines the most accurate of any predictors we have. Of course lines and O/U are still wrong all the time because lots of outcomes are just unpredictable.

 

Exactamundo. There was a better time when if you know how to “cap” you could find gaps in good (or liquid) lines vs non-liquid lines (not enough betting to properly move the lines to the right spots).

it used to be even on games as big as TCU but now if you want to know about inaccurate lines find small stake markets and read a newspapers or get info somehow that the general public doesn’t know like a hot shot generally unknown receiver has a hurt hand. I’m too tired but good “cappers” do this. Find a small market line and learn about it.

Liquid games you’re just guessing even if the ATS line is 20 off by games end.

 

Exactly. "Vegas" has no inside knowledge about who's going to win a game. They just know how to measure how they will get the most bets based on the average perception of people that actually bet on sports. Vegas casinos are wrong about so much, and, they don't care because they make their money on betting fees. More bets, more income when the balance of 50/50 is achieved. Anybody that cares was Vegas thinks is not a real sports enthusiast or football expert IMHO.

 

The 50/50 thing is a myth. They do set lines to minimize risk but their lines are set at what they predict the outcome to be and then they may adjust if a huge number of bets come in, but more often than not they’re also reacting to what made everyone bet on that side.

If they really tried to do even 50/50 on each side then they would erase both risk and most of their potential earnings.

 

By the way, what's going on with Lagway?

 

I just hope he is watching a lot of film on throwing over the middle, intermediate routes.

 

Yes, with our OC.

 

What you said is correct but the oddsmakers start at a location which can be moved, however the betting public in a liquid game is usually surprisingly close.