Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!
  1. Folks, some of you have asked if we were trimming our forums since there are no sports at the moment. We’re going to keep everything open on the forums to provide a sense of normalcy here. It’s our hope Gator Country can be a place of comfort for you during these crazy times. Be safe my friends and take care. -Ray and the GC staff. GO GATORS IN AL KINDS OF WEATHER!

    PS. If you happen to find yourself in tight financial circumstances with regards to renewing here please reach out to us. We’d be happy to help sort it out.

Weather/Hurricane Info/Stories/added links to Historic photos of snowfall in Fla

Discussion in 'GatorTail Pub' started by gatorjjh, May 24, 2019.

  1. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    Then:
    Forecasters expect near-normal hurricane season

    By Seth Borenstein / The Associated Press
    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday predicted nine to 15 named storms. It says four to eight of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.

    Acting NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said a current El Nino, a periodic natural warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide, suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But other forces, including warmer-than-normal seawater, counter that.

    Last year had 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and two major ones, Florence and Michael. Those two big storms hit the United States and together directly killed 38 people and caused $49 billion in damages. The Atlantic basin averages 12 named storms a year, with six becoming hurricanes and three becoming major storms.
    NOAA said there’s a 40% chance of a normal season, with 30% chances of both stronger and weaker seasons.

    “That’s still a lot of activity,” said NOAA forecaster Gerry Bell. “You need to start to prepare for hurricane season now.”
    Forecasters expect near-normal hurricane season

    Now:
    Busier hurricane season forecast
    With El Niño over, more named storms — and stronger — likely
    By Richard Tribou sentinel

    This year’s hurricane season isn’t nearly over, and it might get busier, according to new predictions from the National Hurricane Center.

    Because the weather phenomenon known as El Niño is over, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say conditions are now favorable for above-normal hurricane activity.

    Predictions now call for 10-17 named storms, with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, 5-9 would become hurricanes with 74 mph winds or greater. And of the hurricanes, the outlook is for 2-4 major hurricanes with Category 3 strength of 111 mph or higher. These predictions are higher than original predictions made in May.

    This updated prediction applies to the entire hurricane season which runs from June 1-Nov. 30. So far, two named storms have formed, but the peak months of hurricane season, August to October, have just begun.

    August was when Hurricane Charley hit Central Florida 15 years ago followed by Hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne in short order. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck Texas in August with flooding causing tremendous damage.

    Busier hurricane season forecast
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2019
  2. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
  3. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    Rode out my first hurricane on Cape Cod in about1953, was at the beach with my mother and grandmother in a shoreside cabin, it rained so hard and the wind was so strong the cabin roof leaked, in the morning the beach was littered with small squid and fish that were blown out of the ocean, made quite an impression on a 5 year old, then we moved to Florida and I learned to take hurricanes in stride, our Clermont football team was enlisted as back up to the law enforcement during a particularly strong storm in about 1962, they sequestered us in the gym in case our small police force needed help with rescue etc, luckily were were not called upon that night btw we were also utilized to fire smudge pots in the local groves when a hard freeze was predicted imagine the furor that would cause in these days :)

    got a good hurricane story? post it!!
     
    • Like Like x 2
  4. SmootyGator

    SmootyGator GC Hall of Fame

    2,383
    156
    308
    Apr 17, 2007
    Tampa, Florida
    40% chance for normal, 30% chance or stronger/weaker each way... In other words, no one knows....

    But we'll find out soon enough...
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Winner Winner x 2
  5. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

    2,833
    1,469
    353
    Sep 16, 2018
    Yes, the meterologist covered all their bases with that one.
    In other news the newest odds are out in Vegas. The Gators have a 40% chance of winning 10 games, and a 30% chance of more/less each. You heard it here first
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. SmootyGator

    SmootyGator GC Hall of Fame

    2,383
    156
    308
    Apr 17, 2007
    Tampa, Florida
    I like dem' odds!!! :cool:
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  7. red4512

    red4512 Premium Member

    1,975
    303
    193
    Mar 4, 2010
    The life of a metorologist: To get paid a gazillion dollars and not worry about being wrong.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  8. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    Leaders seek to shift tropical storm language
    By Joe Mario Pedersen Sentinel
    “It’s just a Category 1.”

    Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center, flinches every time he hears that knowing that Category 1 hurricanes were directly responsible for 175 deaths and $103 billion worth of damage in the last 10 years. Most of those deaths Graham believes could have been avoided if the public had been better educated about the power of tropical storms.
    Changing the public’s assumptions on hurricane threats is an uphill battle Graham is determined to win by changing the way meteorologists and state leaders talk about incoming storms.

    “When we talk about a 1 percent chance of floods, that doesn’t mean much to the average person,” Graham said during the Governor’s Hurricane Conference earlier in May. “But, if you change the phrasing, a 1 percent chance means a 1 percent chance for me, a 1 percent chance for you and all of us, and suddenly you’re looking at a 26 percent chance of a flood, flooding your 30 year mortgage. Think that’ll grab their attention?”

    Graham and the NHC are exploring social sciences to understand the best way of communicating the full threat of an incoming storm to the general population.
    Part of the problem lies in what residents have already lived through.
    Leaders seek to shift tropical storm language
     
  9. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

    2,833
    1,469
    353
    Sep 16, 2018
    Start off by not having meteorologists rooting for these storms to become 4 and 5 so they can push their agendas - or is it Too Hot for that topic
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    can't disagree with that idea,but then trying to get and hold the attention of somany people is getting harder and harder, the emotive nature of the modern meteorologists is probably just a product ofthe changing culture, noway to win over sell and folks disregard the next big blow and undersell and folks won't prepare. Tough job. Growing up in central Fla we became used to prep and even rescue so I still evaluate based on what I have experienced
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2019
    • Like Like x 3
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

    23,580
    1,913
    1,243
    Apr 8, 2007
    Gainesville, FL
    After having a good friend take a direct hit from Andrew in 92, seeing the damage from Charley all the way up in Orlando in 04, and my niece on her first weekend of college in NOLA meeting Katrina, I err on the side of caution.
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  12. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
  13. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    Ready. Set. Hurricane season
    Joe Callahan can be reached at joe.callahan@starbanner.com.
    PREDICTING UNPREDICTABILITY
    Scientists believe it will be a near-normal hurricane season because of a weak El Niño and cooler-than-normal tropical Atlantic Ocean water.
    El Niño occurs when ocean water is warmer than normal in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. That creates wind shear in the Atlantic and hinders hurricane development.

    LAS VEGAS BETTING LINE?
    Colorado State University, one of the nation’s leading hurricane predicting teams, reported the probabilities of a hurricane landfall: 48% chance for the U.S. coastline; 28% for the East Coast; and 28% for the Gulf Coast.
    A WIND-DRIVEN TOP
    It is impossible for scientists to predict exactly when and where a hurricane will form in the Atlantic basin.

    Ready. Set. Hurricane season
     
  14. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    14,773
    2,099
    1,373
    Apr 3, 2007
    I do think the sensationalism is a lot at times (the fake wind blown video from last year was downright embarrassing).



    But I also think that it is worth the trade off for the life saving info they bring (and they have saved countless lives) - I would much rather have them err on that side than underselling a potentially dangerous storm.
    I have also always accepted that there is a nerd factor there for many of them. It’s not much different than ornithologists who went completely ape**** over one grainy long distance photo of a believed to be extinct bird in 2005 (the ivory billed woodpecker). That was beyond a big deal in that world, despite that lack of hard evidence. These are rare high end events in their profession, their white whales in a way. They want to see it sometimes.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    This column is by a writer I like a lot and have read for years, he is a master of making tongue in cheek points, this column includes hurricanes but has a pretty good take on several fronts

    commentary by Scot Maxwell in the Sentinel
    Hurricane season just got scarier
    Two months ago, it was all fun and games for Floridians.
    Winter Storm Wesley was wreaking havoc with much of America, dumping 2 feet of snow in the Midwest, turning Minnesota into Ice Planet Hoth.
    And we thought it was all oh-so funny.
    With clear skies in Central Florida and temperatures in the 80s, we donned our Bermudas, cracked open another beer and posted Facebook memes of palm trees and sunsets that said: “I survived the Blizzard of 2019.”

    Well, now it’s our turn.

    This week marks both the beginning of hurricane season — and five months of excruciating heat.
    Hurricane season just got scarier
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

    2,833
    1,469
    353
    Sep 16, 2018
    I get what you are saying but doesn’t it feel like meteorologists are super happy every time a storm jumps up a category?
     
  17. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
  18. SmootyGator

    SmootyGator GC Hall of Fame

    2,383
    156
    308
    Apr 17, 2007
    Tampa, Florida
    The problem with them erring on the side of "overselling" the hurricane is that we get used to it, and then we automatically assume that everything is being overblown... Then we let our guards down. Nobody will take anything lightly this next season, given what Michael did to the panhandle. All of the meteorologists are going to be crazy this season and everyone will buy the hype because of recent events. They'll keep over hyping them for the next few years until the big one hits again, rinse, repeat...
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  19. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    More hot weather is coming
    By Kevin Spear Sentinel
    Last month was particularly toasty — as Central Floridians were well aware — and the National Weather Service has confirmed it as among the warmest Mays on record.
    The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a hotter-than-average summer for Florida and much of the Southeast.
    The period of March through May was significantly drier than normal for much of Central Florida, according to the National Weather Service.

    Orlando and Sanford both got about 6 inches of rain during those months, or nearly 4 inches less than normal.
    More hot weather is coming
     
  20. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

    72,001
    41,893
    2,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Irvine, Fl
    5G signals could reduce accuracy of forecasting

    Scientists warn that tracking hurricanes could be disrupted

    By Todd Shields Bloomberg
    Satellites tracking water vapor in 2012 helped scientists accurately predict Superstorm Sandy’s frightening turn toward New York and New Jersey where it killed dozens of people and inflicted billions of dollars in damage.

    But now scientists are warning that their precision tracking of hurricanes could be disrupted by signals from the new generation of wireless networks known as 5G that will soon roll out across the U.S. In one test that mimicked interference, Sandy was incorrectly forecast to head out to sea.
    At currently proposed 5G power levels, satellites may have trouble reading natural signals given off by water vapor. That could set back forecast accuracy to levels last seen around 1980, said Neil Jacobs, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    This would result in the reduction of hurricane track forecast lead time by roughly two to three days,” Jacobs told Congress at a hearing earlier this month.
    5G signals could reduce accuracy of forecasting
     
    • Informative Informative x 1