War in Ukraine

This article was clearly the Biden NatSec Team breifing the author of the piece on what happened with SAG-U as they were leaving the White House after the election. So that number is coming from US IC:

At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers.

The Secret History of the War in Ukraine

 

You do know that the US government now uses "targeted cognitive disinformation campaigns" aimed at the American people as well? @MikeBenzCyber spoken about this at length on videos he has posted on his X account.

As I posted 15 months ago, an associate dean at Yale law school was influenced by the decades-old writings of a family member on communist psychological warfare techniques. The lady, who I suspect is Brahmin, appeared on MSNBC. I was studying psychological warfare as a teenager. My dad's friend Stefan T Possony wrote the book on psychological and his writings were studied at the US Army special warfare school
Communist Psychological Warfare, from Readings in Counter-Guerrilla Operations / Stefan T. Possony
Communist Psychological Warfare, from Readings in Counter-Guerrilla Operations / Stefan T. Possony


One of my go-to guys, Greg Copley, has written quite a bit about what he calls "total information warfare."

 

Interesting that the US was pulling observers out of the Donbas 3 days before Ukraine jacked up their artillery strikes.

Observers of the OSCE monitoring mission began to leave Donbass
February 13 2022

The United States is withdrawing its representatives from the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), the first employees began to leave Donetsk. For Lugansk, where there is also an OSCE mission, there is no information yet.

...

Meanwhile, in Donetsk and Lugansk, the departure of OSCE observers from the demarcation line is explained by the preparation by Kiev of a large-scale provocation to justify the offensive. It is emphasized that OSCE observers have been in Donbas since 2014 and have never left the demarcation line, despite the fighting in 2014 and 2015. It is assumed that by removing observers from Donbass, the United States is blocking the only official channel for obtaining information on the current situation.

Observers of the OSCE monitoring mission began to leave Donbass

 

It's no where near that. Come on. Israel bombed the hell out of 2,000,000 mostly defenseless Gazans in a small strip of land, around the clock for months. (and they had air superiority...something Ukraine does not) and even by Hamas estimates, they've only killed ~60,000 Palestinians. If Ukrainians were inflicting that much pain on the Russians, we would have seen them be able to reclaim significant portions of their territorial losses in the past two years, but we've only witnessed a small creep the other direction by Russian forces. The Kursk invasion was a complete failure.

Ukrainian forces have made no known major encirclements that I am aware of in the past two years, which is what they'd need to produce kill rates that high without an air superiority. And in fact if Ukraine were able to kill at that rate, we would be absolute fools to not help them finish the job. I care not what American or even British estimates are. Take those with a grain of salt. It's a proxy war. They are going to throw a red meat number out to drive support. But again... compare to Gaza. It's not easy to off 250,000 people a year. Especially when they have weapons to defend themselves. And even more especially when you can't fly missions over the enemy and you've been restricted for most of that time from firing long-range. You have to be extremely gullible to believe a number like 700,000 Russians dead. About as bad as believing Trump was going to end it in 24 hours...

 

Or, or....the US IC had extremely good intelligence on the Russian war plans and knew that the RGF had gone green on every capability they needed to launch an invasion and were aware Putin was going in shortly after the Olympics ended.

 

That number is coming from the US IC. And it makes sense if when you realize that they are fighting along a 1000KM front and the AFU is firing between 3000 to 5000 artillery rounds every day and the Russians are attacking in meat waves. That means that just under 600 Russians would have to be killed or wounded every day over the past 3.25 years to get to 700k. Which works out to just under one Russian soldier being killed or injured every day per 1KM of the FLOT/FLET.

If you are looking at the total number killed, I would assume it is about half the total causalities, so around 350k.

The lines remain static because the RGF has a significant advantage in the number of troops they have compared to what the AFU can field. Just read the NYTimes article and it explains all of this.

 

You guys are speaking past each other about two different metrics: killed in action (probably somewhere between 250-300K) versus killed and wounded (a far squishier figure between 700K and 1M).

 

The metric being discussed is total kills. There was never a "wounded" qualifier added to it by either one of us. If you read their posts, they are clearly arguing that there have been ~700,000 Russians killed in this war, barely 3 years old. Which would be in the range of how many we killed in Vietnam over a ~10 year period, with obviously superior equipment and personnel.

If someone wants to believe there have been 700k Russians killed in this barely 3 year old war, you do you, but it's not reality.

 

If you want killed, let's go with 350k.

The question is the severity of the WIA. If someone was seriously injured in the leg or an arm in an arty strike, then they are likely going to lose it since the Russians do not have air superiority enough to conduct air MEDEVAC to medical facilities capable of preforming limb saving operations. Not to mention they likely do not have the assets to do over 600 of them a day. Those soldiers are not showing back up to the battlefield and are off the board. Also, the Russian Army is not known for caring for their soldiers like NATO countries do, so the number of non-returning WIA is probably around 100k to 200k.

 

It was a joke, and I believe the people blowing up the Russians over what the Russians themselves report.

"Losing 980k players on the offensive side of the ball" didn't mean KIA, it also meant WIA - which quickly turn into KIA once they put them back into the meat assault as WIA.

Also - who is going to know better, the folks who've penetrated every form of Russian communication for intelligence purposes to the level they can blow up individual Russian officers who've committed war crimes or are their drone videos not good enough to make estimates from?

 

False. Justa’s posts (32860 and 32869) were about “dead or wounded” which means “casualties” and is the figure I cited. Justa’s posts are what CaptUSMCNole was responding to and where he “downgraded” the number to 700K.

 

I don’t know. Looks like I had the correct read.

 

Serbia, allegedly Russia's ally, sticks it to them by supplying weapons to Ukraine. Belgrade's official policy is neutrality, but Serbian companies are making money by supply weapons and ammo through third-party countries.

https://apnews.com/article/serbia-r...n-kyiv-vucic-48c04a1de2db57620029971bd275f606

 

surprised there hasn't been more of this. hopefully there is a dissident network that could morph into a sabotage team and we see more of this

drones blew up a fuel train. that's going to muck up the railroad for a little while. hopefully they catch a tanker on a bridge next time

Logistics Sabotage: Ukrainian intelligence operatives score major win in devastating train attack

Ukrainian intelligence officers launched a devastating sabotage attack on a Russian high-value logistics train. The attack was carried out by drones and video footage of the mission, and its damage, was published online by Ukriane's Main Directorate of Intelligence.

 

It’s not anywhere near 700,000, lol. I mean you remember only around 15,000 Soviets were killed in the Afghan war, which lasted 10+ years. I get that you all want the war to continue. But parroting bogus propaganda isn’t an argument.

 

Hey Google: Show me a person that does not understand the difference between a counter insurgency fight and a high intensity conflict.

The US IC is saying 700k KIA or WIA and they are the authoritative source since they are working so close with the Ukrainians through SAG-U. Why is it so hard to accept their numbers?

 

Hey Google, show me a person who accepts everything the American government tells him at face value. But Google, before you begin your search, the person must also take everything the most corrupt country in modern Europe tells him at face value. TIA.

 

Hmmm...

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024

Were you asking for a self-portrait?

 

Aren’t Russian casualties up to seven million ?