War in Ukraine

Leave it to Trump to admitting he is protecting Russia. Russia Russia Russia

 

If you read the OSCE report it tells you what the ceasefire violations were and where they occured. Most of what the OSCE calls "explosions" are artillery explosions is my assumption.

The best move for you imo is to read the link in this Tweet. It will answer some of your questions:

 

So you are making an assumption that an "explosion" is artillery. Are you also making an assumption on who is responsible for the "explosions"? Does the OSCE report say specifically who was responsible for the "explosions" or do they just report they heard them?

 

Just more BS
He doesn’t have the guts.

 

He will delay his decision by 30 days, to work out a "deal"

 

Quite the shift from having peace on Day 1.

Also quite the shift in claiming [fill in the blank] is starting WWIII.

US needs to be harder on Russia not easier which I support.

 

Bernhard was a German tank commander. Very sharp guy that educated himself is my guess. Very meticulous. One of his better debunking was the notion that Assad was dropping poison gas on his own people.

How do I know who the best strategic analysts are? Started reading National Review when I was ~8 yo. It's smartest writer was James Burnham, who Buckley called "the greatest strategic thinker in the West." My dad was a top anti-communist whose friend was Stefan Possiny, who was also called the greatest strategic thinker in the West. Possony co-founded the International Strategic Studies Association with Australian Greg Copley in 1972. Terrorism analyst Yossef Bodansky wrote that Copley was "the only fully conscious grand strategist in Western civilization." I note who people like these think are smart and read what they say. The Duran is the #1 rated FB blog on the world. I check out who their guests are. Pepe Escobar is one of the better Eurasian reporters. His favorite Russian military expert is Andrei Martyanov. I started reading Martyanov and saw him appearing on top rated podcasts. He's a go-to guy. Ex-CIA analysts Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson are well thought of and I check them out every now and then.

I was talking to Greg Copley April 15, 2013 at 2:45pm to 2:49 pm ,(per my cell phone) One thing we talked about besides Chechen jihad (that unbeknownst to us was occuring as we spoke at the Boston marathon) was the stupid precedent the US set by bombing Belgrade for 78 days because the Serbian province of Kosovo wanted independence. As Copley pointed out that would be like another country bombing Americs because Mexican immigrants in the southwest wanted independence. Moscow justified their invasion of Ukraine by citing the US attacks on Serbia in support of independence for Kosovo.

One of the people my dad corresponded with was the legendary journalist Arnaud de Borchgrave, former editor-in-chief of the Washington Times. Arnaud interviewed Mullah Omar in Afghanistan a couple of months before 9/11. Arnaud thought there was a good chance Omar was going to kick Osama bin Laden out of Afghanistan. I used to correspond with De Borchgrave, who covered 17 wars. He interviewed Saddam and Singapore's legendary prime minister Lee Kuan Yew and other world leaders. Arnaud tried to interview Osama bin Laden in September 2004 but was forced to abandon the meeting. Too many dead bodies on the ground as he approached the meeting area. Unlike the US military Arnaud had tried to intercept bin Laden when he exited Afghanistan through a mountain pass. As I recall De Borchgrave was in Washington and heard bin Laden was leaving Afghanistan. He missed him by 2 days according to the locals. They said bin Laden and his men rode horses out of of Afghanistan and got into SUVs and headed towards Peshawar.

By listening to people like the above you sort of learn by osmosis. Stephen F Cohen and John Mearsheimer were big influences. My dad taught 15 hours of guerilla warfare at Harvard while taking 18 hours as a student. He had an extensive library of FP books, most having to do with communism. I read most of these books as a kid and learned a lot. My dad also corresponded with Peter Brimelow on immigration issues. Brimelow was a mentor to White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller.

You can believe the above or maybe that's all BS and I work for Putin

 

What level of tanks did Bernard command? A platoon, a company, a Battalion?

How do you become a "top anti-communist"? Is there an organization you have to join that awards that?

FYI, UBL has no longer in Afghanistan in September of '04. I know because I was there as a Marine Intel Officer at the time. But thank you for that very entertaining write up.

 

All of the analysis I've seen considers the explosions to be artillery. I would imagine that the technology is similar to how city police monitor gunfire. A bullet would have a signature different from artillery. According to the OSCE the great majority of the explosions occurred on the separatist side of the ceasefire line per analysis by Bernhard.

I remember reading that Russia had Intel indicating Ukraine was going to invade the Donbas in March. I read that Zelensky admitted Ukraine was going to invade with 100,000 troops. The other estimate going around at the time was that Ukraine would invade with 60,000 troops. I also remember reading that Academi (formally Blackwater) was training Ukrainian troops how to fight door to door in urban warfare. The artillery fire was preparation for an invasion. Recall that Kamala said Ukraine would join NATO. Recall that Ukraine wanted nuclear weapons. No way Russia would let a country full of Nazis have nuclear weapons which would eventually be sitting stop hypersonic missiles that could hit Moscow in 3 minutes.

Click the link in this tweet and read Betnhard's reporting if you want to know what happened:

 

You think the Russians are blowing up things on their side intentionally at the stated disproportionate rate, just so they can generate some propaganda via the OSCE? I don't doubt the Russians utilize a ton of propaganda. But this is a stretch if indeed that is what you are suggesting.

 

That Trump post was an attempt to measure MAGA support for Trump giving aid to Ukraine. Trump got harsh blowback from his supporters. MAGA is anti-war

 

So you really do not know. All you know is that OSCE said there were explosions. Do you think the explosions the sounds of an artillery piece being fired? Go find me anything in the OSCE that states they know for sure anything you say Bernard is claiming. Go read the OSCE reports yourself and tell me what they actually say.

 

The OSCE report clearly calls them "impact explosions."

 

There is nothing in those reports that speak definitively on what actually was happening. The OSCE clearly does not own any radar that track artillery rounds being fired. All they state is that there were explosions. And BTW, if you actually read the reports, Luhansk region is where the most explosions occurred but that doesn't fit the narrative.

 

They call them "impact explosions", which denotes the incoming nature of the artillery. I mean, it sort of makes sense, doesn't it? If Russia are invading and taking over Ukrainian territory, it makes sense Ukraine are firing more shots at the Russians than vice versa. In my limited understanding of war, isn't that typically the case? The defense fires more rounds? And this is why offensives by the invading force can be so costly to them if not executed properly?

 

Actually the reports say they are heard and occasionally seen.

During the reporting period, the SMM camera in Stanytsia Luhanska recorded three undetermined explosions, while SMM patrols heard 98 undetermined explosions and ten bursts and shots. All of these ceasefire violations were assessed as outside the disengagement area
near Stanytsia Luhanska, but within 5km of its periphery.

So they cannot tell if the majority of those "explosions" are outgoing or incoming. But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter because the idea that the Ukrainians started this war by conducting artillery raids and the Russians were just defending their people is ridiculous. This had all of been going on for years:

Following agreement reached at the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on 22 July 2020 regarding Measures to strengthen the ceasefire, from 00:01 on 27 July 2020 until the end of the reporting period, the SMM has recorded at least 110,202 ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions (including 30,346 explosions, 25,944 projectiles in flight, 477 muzzle flashes, 496 illumination flares, and at least 52,939 bursts and shots)

 

So are the Ukrainians on the defensive here? I thought the argument was the Ukrainians were attacking the Russian held areas and Russia was just defending itself?

 

I have always maintained Russia took action because Ukraine is a red line for them. Whether it's morally right or wrong is certainly a question. But, it has been known for decades that the Russians held Ukraine as off limits for NATO expansion on a red line basis. I mean, I am sure we'd have something to say if the Russians or Chinese wanted to colonize Ottawa, wouldn't we? I'm not saying it's right, but as to who started it? Ehh... let's just say it's likely there's blame to be had on both sides, at the very least.

 

Looks like you're running away from my question. I'm not complaining. Sometimes those types of replies are the best answers. You've answered my question without answering it, lol.