Voter Registrations in Florida & Pennsylvania

Florida continues to march steadily to close to 1.1 million more republicans than democrats by the 2024 elections:

Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State

As of 12/31/2023:

Republicans 5,141,848
Democrats 4,362,147
Difference 779,701

As of May 31, 2024:

Republicans 5,227,223
Democrats 4,296,552
Difference 930,671

Republican gain since January 1, 2024, 150,970, a 30,194 monthly average.

Republican projected gain by October 31, 2024, 1,081,641.

 

Great job Governor DeSantis, democratic party cheating cut off at the knees in Florida leads to more accurate voter rolls.

 

Well, alrighty then:

Voting & Election Statistics (pa.gov)

November 7, 2023
Democrats 3,900,228
Republicans 3,453,662
Difference 446,566

June 10, 2024
Democrats 3,892,996
Republicans 3,513,272
Difference 379,928

Republican gain from November 7, 2023 to June 10, 2024, 66,842, a 9,949 monthly average.

Republican projected gain over the next 4 1/2 months, 44,750.

Republican projected gain since November 7, 2023, 111,592.

Voter Registration Observation 1: Republicans are up & Democrats are down. It must be that voter registration interfering democrat governor.

Voter Registration Observation 2: Taking a longer-term view, the registrations as of November 8, 2022:

Democrats 4,046,694
Republicans 3,497,126
Difference 549,568
Republican 1 year monthly average gain from November 8, 2022 to November 7, 2023, 8,584, as compared to 9,949 from November 7, 2023 to June 10, 2024.

The democrat voter registration advantage over republicans has been steadily eroding over the last 18 months from 549,568 to 379,928 and from November 8, 2022 to June 10, 2024. It is projected to further erode to 339,928 by the time registration ends 2 weeks before the November election, a drop of 209,640 over the 2 years from November 2022 to November 2024.

The shift towards a republican majority hasn't been as pronounced as in Florida, but the numbers speak for themselves. Pennsylvania may have more republicans than democrats by the time the 2028 presidential election rolls around if these voter registration trends continue.

 

With the monthly rate of gain by the republican party, the polls will likely show a 2.5-to-3.5-point Trump lead before the election, say 3% average. Pennsylvania is in the likely republican category.

Looking at Pennsylvania's republican voter registration monthly growth compared to Florida based on the current total number of voters registered in each state:

Florida since 1/1/2024, the republican monthly average gain over democrats / current total voter registrations:

30,194 / 13,375,767 = .226% Monthly Gain

Pennsylvania since 11/7/2023, the republican monthly average gain over democrats / current total voter registrations:

9,949 / 8,750,788 = .114% Monthly Gain

While the Pennsylvania rate of gain is not as high as in Florida, it is substantial enough to deliver a republican win in 2024, like those 19 electoral votes in the republican column, and will over the next few years turn Pennsylvania red, more republican registered voters than democrat.