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Very interesting

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by mdfgator, Apr 17, 2020.

  1. jeffphillips21

    jeffphillips21 VIP Member

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    absolutely. Anyone saying it's below 1% is watching choreographed "news" or any opinions / quacks - anything that support their argument to get back the economy back while purposely avoiding all facts that point to the opposite. Like virtually everything in the US, people are divided on political lines. Science and facts are secondary considerations at best.

    You don't think nurses, doctors, EMTs, etc know the symptoms by now? Saying they're raising the death count just to get funding is ridiculous. Another conspiracy theory based in zero evidence. When was the last time you heard story after story of bodies stacked up in trucks, warehouses, anywhere they can store them. Never in my lifetime. Let's just turn a blind eye to that and pretend it's not happening.

    Somehow everyone that thinks this way finds and reports anything suggesting the denominator is higher, but quickly discard any evidence that says the numerator is higher. Why? To support their narrative of a low mortality rate so they can justify their belief that this is all blown out of proportion and get everyone back to work and the economy going. Probably because they're holding stocks and worried about their 401k, which I understand..but zero idea how highly contagious DEADLY diseases work.

    It's like people want to live in an echo chamber / bubble where everyone believes the same thing they do. Log into i_am_right.com and find anything to support their opinions. I'm just looking at the facts and stats. And the stats say a much higher death rate than 1%. You do know the common flu is 0.05% right? That's 1/20th of 1%. We've already passed the death count for the entire 2017/2018 flu season, the worse in modern history - which includes all flu strains - in just over a month. How in the hell is any of this like the common flu?
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2020
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  2. mdfgator

    mdfgator GC Hall of Fame

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    So you don't buy the antibody testing? I have several doctors in my family, it's pretty well accepted the mortality rate was grossly overstated initially.
     
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  3. mdfgator

    mdfgator GC Hall of Fame

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  4. tampajack1

    tampajack1 Premium Member

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    The rate has been overstated, and the number of deaths has been understated.
     
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  5. INGATORSWETRUST

    INGATORSWETRUST GC Hall of Fame

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    Jeff Phillips - I accept your point of view, but would like to see the actual number of deaths, regardless of reason in the first four months of 2019 versus the first four months of 2020. If Covid-19 deaths are additive to the normal death rate in the US, there should be substantially more deaths in comparison to the same 4 months of the previous year. I know a 98 year old man that’s death was coded as Covid-19. I heard a State Senator from Minn state on TV that deaths were all being coded as Covid-19 in comparison to prior years. When the actual data comes out, we will see if cancer, heart attack, high blood pressure, diabetes, ... deaths declined this year. I don’t know the answer, but would like to see the facts to make an informed judgment
     
  6. BA69MA72

    BA69MA72 GC Legend

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  7. INGATORSWETRUST

    INGATORSWETRUST GC Hall of Fame

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    It is interesting that they included NYC, but not the US as a whole. I’ve been told our death count in the US is lower than the historical average this year. The N.Y. Times left this statistic out, as it did not support their storyline.

    NYC is very bad, which is because their Mayor and public officials in NY told people to use subway, go to restaurants and the theatre and they never closed the subway during the entire outbreak. Had they shit down when San Fran and LA did, their numbers would be much better. Excluding NYC, I think a nation of 330 million people faired pretty well, although 30 million people unemployed and economy suffered greatly.
     
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  8. 31g8r

    31g8r Junior

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    The US averages over 8k deaths daily in a normal year.

    Recently ER visits for chest pains are down 40% and sudden death from MI are up 20% over same time frame in 2019

    Lastly, maybe semantics but is dying with Covid-19 the same thing as dying from Covid-19? Someone with a chronic disease (CKD, CAD, institutionalized residents, etc) who contracts a virus that stresses the body was basically on the clock from the preexisting disease.

    This is totally different than a healthy 0-50 yr old individual who succumbs to Covid-19. This age group isn’t immune from covid-19 death but they are nowhere near the 1% or greater mortality rate. Absolute numbers don’t give an accurate picture of societal risk/impact that JPhillips is sharing.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
  9. gulfgator

    gulfgator GC Hall of Fame

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  10. 31g8r

    31g8r Junior

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    last I looked the top 25 cites for deaths looked like this. NYC approx 50%, #2 had approx 30% and numbers 3-25 only 20% of deaths covid-19 related.
     
  11. mdfgator

    mdfgator GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't think the number of deaths is understated, I kind of feel the opposite. But the mortality rate incorporates that, it's been grossly overstated.
     
  12. mdfgator

    mdfgator GC Hall of Fame

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    by far the most bungled job anywhere in the world, a complete sh#t show from the jump. Over 60% of the deaths can be traced to New York City.
     
  13. SJB612

    SJB612 GC Hall of Fame

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    I read an interesting discussion between ethicists on this subject. They discussed measuring deaths in terms of life years lost. That is, if a bunch of people in their 70s die from this, how many life years were lost given the average life expectancy of a person who lived to be that age. There is a big difference between 20,000 people in their 30s dying and 20,000 people in their 70s dying when one looks at the number of life years lost. Not that all lives don't matter, but a person dying two or three years early versus 50 years early has a much bigger impact on the world. It would be interesting to see the data put in that context at some point for comparison with things like the flu that kill less, albeit much younger, people in a typical year.
     
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  14. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Agree with your post, but this number looks wrong. Perhaps you meant our deaths from a certain cause?
    But the total deaths in the US in 2018 were 2,835,000, or 54,500+ per week.

    The state of NY, for instance, had 165K deaths by itself, or 3100+ per week.
    Their official tally for this is 24K, but I can't help but wonder how much their total deaths for the same time period has increased.

    Certainly it has risen, but I'm also certain that we will find some unexpected items once this is all sorted out. (Which will be a while.)
     
  15. mdfgator

    mdfgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Exactly why I cringe when I hear people comparing the lives lost in Vietnam or ww2 or any war to this, people are so crooked it's painful.
     
  16. tampajack1

    tampajack1 Premium Member

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    So have we lost 2 million years yet?
     
  17. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Keep in mind that there's a significant difference between mortality rate (deaths/population) and case fatality rate (deaths/inflicted population). In the state of NY, there are 24K+ deaths and a total population of 19.45 million. That places the mortality rate at .12, equal to the case fatality rate of the flu. The case fatality rate for C19 in NY is absurd. I won't even list it and acknowledge that there very well may be significantly more unknown cases than unknown deaths.

    Here are some other mortality rates, just for the sake of comparison.
    State...........mortality
    Michigan........(.04)
    Idaho............(.004)
    Illinois...........(.02)
    Louisiana.......(.04)
    California.......(.005)
    Florida...........(.006)
    Minnesota......(.007)
    Flu*...............(.02)
    Flu**.............(.004)
    *This is applying the upper end of flu statistics (61k US deaths) for an entire year.
    ** This applies the lower end of flu statistics (12k US deaths) for an entire year.

    I have no proven methodology and will not claim statistical validity here, as I'm just using numbers from a single source (Worldometer) and population data from Google. Mortality rate, though, accounts for total population and therefore removes the question of unknown infections. Considering the fact that some of the C-19 mortality rates after what, 3 months, are as high as that for a year of the flu is telling. And then there are the others factors, including vaccination and social distancing, which further cloud the discussion.
     
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  18. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    I don't think this is accurate at all. According to this source, there are 10k deaths in MN due to cancer alone so far this year. According to this source, 371 have died from Covid-19. Someone might be yanking your chain.

    EDIT: 10k cancer deaths might be a full-year projection. If yes, then there would be approx 3.3k deaths to date, still 10x higher than Covid-19.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
  19. 31g8r

    31g8r Junior

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    Nice catch, I’m sorry I meant daily deaths for 2019