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US Core inflation level lowest in 3 years

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Sep 29, 2023.

  1. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Core inflation barely moved last month and starts with a “3” annually signaling the end of the inflation watch. It was the smallest change in 3 years. Now it’s just a matter of OPEC oil output levels.

    The criminal Fed has no reason to raise rates.

    Higher gas prices lift Fed's preferred inflation gauge but underlying price pressures remain mild

    Excluding volatile food and energy prices, though, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in nearly three years, evidence that inflation pressures continue to ease. Fed officials pay particular attention to core prices, which are considered a better gauge of where inflation might be headed. Last month’s modest rise in core inflation could raise the likelihood that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting Oct. 31-Nov. 1.

    Core prices edged up 0.1% from July to August, down from July’s 0.2%. It was the smallest monthly increase since November 2020. Compared with a year ago, core prices were up 3.9%, below July’s reading of 4.2%. That was the slowest such increase in two years.
     
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  2. ridgetop

    ridgetop GC Hall of Fame

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    While this is good news… any move towards more inflation is a hit to the pocket. Hoping this signals a complete stop and reversal. The food and energy sector is not helping what the common citizen is feeling each month. Granted, when you grind your economy to a halt.. this has to be expected.
     
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  3. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

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    . So we are celebrating that all the increase of the last 2-3 years is here to stay?
     
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  4. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    You don't want reversal. Deflation is a disaster. It screws incentives to invest up royally.
     
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  5. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I’m glad that you’re in communications or whatever and not an economist with any input to monetary policy.

    You’re not going to contort yourself to tell us that the inflation is transitory again, are you????
     
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  6. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Everyone knew they were here to stay…. Along with the pay raises.
     
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  7. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Just devalued the dollar, only saving grace is the rest of the worlds big countries did the same so in relative terms we are no different than before, unless you got no pay raises and or need to borrow money at 7-9%.
     
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  8. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Upside is it costs you less in real dollars to pay off any fixed debt you had prior -- mortgages, student load, credit card, and car payments.
     
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  9. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    That’s true if you have enough of those real dollars.
    It’s better to keep that 3% mortgage/ car payment than paying it off at this point as long as you can get a return that beats it. 5% CDs are all over right now.
     
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  10. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

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    Great. When will the average family get salaries that enable them to buy homes (unaffordable in 99% of cities Homes "unaffordable" in 99% of nation for average American - CBS News) or compensate for groceries costing 30% more than 3 years ago. Hopefully soon considering the average household income has gone down (Income in the United States: 2022)

    I guess they can always substitute their groceries for dog food since the government counts substitution in its fraudulent inflation numbers but even dog food has doubled.
     
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  11. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    I hope so. A reversal would be disastrous for the economy
     
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  12. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

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    To be honest it's been great for me. My mortgage is $1575 a month on a 4/3 with a half acre yard in the most expensive zip code in the Knoxville TN metro area. I put 0 down at 2.75% with a VA loan so no mortgage insurance. House nextdoor to me just sold with a mortgage estimated at just above $3500 with a 20% down payment.

    The only people inflation hurts is the very people that defend this administration pretend to champion. It would be funny except it's sad that hardworking American families can't afford homes.

    My salary has increased by about 36% over 3 years too. Food and housing are inconsequential expenses to those of us who are already established. Young people and blue collar workers will suffer.
     
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  13. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    So ... you don't consider yourself part of a "hardworking American family"? I do ...
     
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  14. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    The transit is over. It was transitory.
     
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  15. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    What do you propose?
     
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  16. jjgator55

    jjgator55 GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s a shame that people who enjoy smoking get lung cancer too. And it’s a shame the treatment is painful and expensive. Under Republican governance our country developed a cancer and the fix is hard and expensive. But in time things may get back to where we were. The Republican solution is to let the country die so they can replace it with an authoritarian regime.
     
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  17. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

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    The only loan we have left is our commercial property we own and work out of. 3.35% fixed. Normally I just paid stuff off. But this one I might ride out...
     
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  18. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    This is not at all a surprise. The core cpi is decreasing because the decrease in rents from a year ago is finally flowing through the cpi housing measurements - cpi housing of 0.3% was lower than it has been in a long time. It will likely stay low for a while longer - maybe another year, or more.

    CPI core mainly tells us what happened with new rents a year ago. It just doesn’t seem very useful.
     
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  19. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Well I will go ahead and laugh because I would have to cry if I thought you really believed that horsecrap!
     
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  20. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Conservative WSJ:

    Opinion | Team Transitory Had a Point About Inflation

    It turns out, however, that while the name was inapt and our implicit inflation forecasts were way off, Team Transitory’s central idea may be vindicated. The notion was that most of the rising inflation wasn’t due to an overheated economy fueled by monetary and fiscal policy, but rather to several “special factors” that would disappear on their own. Principal among them were rising prices for food and energy and supply-side bottlenecks from the pandemic.

    The policy implication was that bringing inflation down wouldn’t require a recession. Inflation would mostly fall of its own accord. To be sure, the Fed needed to raise interest rates; rates near zero were inappropriate in a rapidly recovering economy with rising inflation. But the Fed didn’t need to push rates so high as to cause a recession.

    That may be happening now. The 12-month consumer-price index inflation rate peaked at a seasonally adjusted 8.9% in June 2022 and is down to 3.1% for the year ending June 2023. That’s quite a drop in a single year. The Fed’s preferred measure, the deflator for personal consumption expenditures, hasn’t fallen quite as much. But on a 12-month basis, it’s down from 7% in June 2022 to 3.8% in May 2023. When the June 2023 number comes out, it will probably go lower.

    None of this was due to economic slack. The post-pandemic boom continues. The unemployment rate has been remarkably steady in the 3.5% to 3.7% range since the Fed began tightening. That’s below what most economists think of as the “full employment” or “natural” rate. (The Fed’s current estimate is 4%.)
     
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