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Update: 6.6 million job losses vs. 3.1 Million expected for last week

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Apr 2, 2020.

  1. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Exactly. It seems some are still believing in a false choice, where people will magically just go about their business as usual, congregate in crowds (i.e. "the economy") and not notice the pandemic. That's not how this works. Business in these "leisure and travel" and not critical infrastructure related industries is going to drop 70,80,90% without any govt intervention at all. That is a huge chunk of the economy and a huge chunk of the layoffs.

    There is no option where the economy isn't destroyed in the short term. The only consideration is saving lives and what is best for the long term. I'd say making sure our health care system isn't overrun is priority 1a.
     
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  2. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    People should not expect to be "made whole" on lost income, I've even seen a few even on the right that suggest that (Lindsey Graham). It's totally impossible. Insane even.

    However, there can be massive ZIRP small business loans that allow small businesses an opportunity to dig themselves out. Businesses that have previously reported income to the IRS and paid taxes (no such loans should be available to tax avoiders or "cash businesses"). That isn't the same thing as being "made whole", but it's the next best thing. The govt can expect to eat some losses on such a loan program, but I think the majority of businesses would make good if the other choice was a bankruptcy process.
     
  3. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Because Trump said something about a possible oil deal. The market is so stupid. Who cares about oil right now? We've lost 10 million jobs in 2 weeks. Also, who cares what Trump says? He's a liar and very possibly made it up about a possible deal between Saudis and Russia to blunt the bad news about the unemployment claims.
     
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  4. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 GC Hall of Fame

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    You seem to deal in absolutes. Free for alls, millions dead on the street, etc. Again, at some point we are going to have to leave the hyperbole behind and have a grown up conversation about how and when we move forward.

    It’s very easy for people who have salaries and can work from home (like me) to say we’ll lockdown for as long as we have to. But that’s not going to last for anybody. The majority of industries will get pulled into this, and it will happen soon. And when enough of us white collar remote workers get our pink slips, you will see a change in attitude, even on these boards. No country will be able to sustain an open ended shutdown.

    We all now know how incredibly contagious this thing is. It’s not going to magically go away. Unless you literally lock every one down for weeks, it will be lying low until we let our guard down and it will come back. It’s likely going to kill a lot of people. It’s tragic.

    Nonetheless, it’s not going to go away, and at some point, we will have to move on and return to semi normalcy. And yes, people will go back out and resume their lives. Very cautiously, but they will. I don’t know what that looks like, but is a discussion that will have to take place.

    Unfortunately, times like these call for a true leader. One that can level with people and guide them even when hard decisions have to be made. And Trump is a clown with zero leadership ability.
     
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  5. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    most Americans can’t afford a large emergency fund

    I assume most of us that have the time to post here also have an emergency fund but many students, young professionals, and service workers live mostly paycheck to paycheck.
     
  6. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Legend

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    Millions dead and dying is not an exaggeration if we allow this thing to spread uncontrollably. If anything, it is underestimating the threat. There are 200 million adults in the US. Just a 1% mortality rate is 2 million people. And guess what, it's going to be a lot higher than 1% if we have 200 million infections and less than a million hospital beds.

    Even with our current social distancing measures and lock downs we lost over 1,000 people yesterday. The White House, which has been downplaying this thing for months, is now estimating 200+ thousand dead. This is as real as it gets. It's not hyperbole. It's reality. You want to talk about how to move forward? Explain how we're going to stop this disease beyond "oh well. everyone will get it. if you die you die." People will not accept that. They are not going to risk infection with an obliterated hospital system simply because you wish the economy would go back to normal.

    It's not happening. The only sane choice is take our medicine now. Bend the curve down. Then, once we have contained the spread, start to re-open. People with COVID aren't zombies. We have 200k+ infected right now. In 14 days, they will be better or dead. The only way the virus continues to grow is if those who are presently infected spread the disease to others. Prevent that from happening through quarantine and aggressive lock downs, and in a month we may have half the number of active cases. Then a quarter, and so on. Eventually, we get to a point where we have very few infected people. We maintain moderate social distancing and utilize widespread testing until we get a vaccine.

    It hurts, but it hurts a hell of a lot less than a free for all.
     
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  7. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    Hey if it's no big deal, furlough yourself and join the party.
     
  8. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 GC Hall of Fame

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    Again, it all sounds great and easy to say that’s the right approach. But what happens in a month, when people are still getting sick? And some still dying? Do we extend for another month, and then? Another month? You realize there are still millions of people out there every day right? Have you been to a Costco lately? Again, unless you completely lock down everyone for a month or longer, this thing isn’t gong away. And we all know a vaccine will take at least 18 months for mass consumption.

    So this lets stop pretending any absolutes work here. We are not going to work remotely for a month and then everything gets better. It won’t. We are not going for a free for all either. The reality, whether we are prepared to accept it or not, is somewhere in the middle.
     
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  9. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    What would you get up and tell the American people?

    Just curious...
     
  10. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Some people can not accept that people will die from this.... it may be "large numbers".

    It's not acceptable in some people's minds.
     
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  11. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 GC Hall of Fame

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    First you need credibility as a leader. Absurd statements that are demonstrably false, pettiness, and constant self back padding erode any credibility.

    Then you need the ability to genuinely empathize with people. Again, Trump has shown no ability to do this. His constant brags about how great he is doing, his ratings, and his whining about the press and governors not being nice to him are mind boggling in the middle of an unprecedented global crisis. He just can’t see past how any of this impacts Donals Trump.

    Finally, you have to be able to be straight with people and walk them through a plan, even if it’s a painful one. Again, Trump’s only tools are self promotion, attacking opponents, and pretend falsehoods are true. That might work when everything is going well. But in the middle of a crisis, he has no clothes. The flip flopping, tone deaf lack of seriousness, especially early on make it really hard to believe he can do that. Maybe he’ll surprise me, but I’m not holding my breath.
     
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  12. Gator40

    Gator40 Avada Kedavra

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    Could be you. No one knows. Accept it.
     
  13. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't see war as the go to for economic help. I see it more as an end result of depression and ultimately the decisions that will lead to. I wouldn't expect world governments to sit by while their economies are being wrecked and do nothing. And there are still lots of wars fought without nukes. You can't just go firing nukes off every which place, because the same would be sent back and we know how that ends. Plus, logistically, nukes are rarely an option. I mean we could have nuked Iraq and Afghanistan, but there's a ton of reasons that would not have been practical.
     
  14. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Legend

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    We are already at a middle ground. A true lock down is Wuhan. We don’t have that here. We have a hybrid semi shut down where people will continue to be infected at a reduced, but still high rate. The goal is to avoid catastrophic collapse in the short term, hope that summer provides some relief in the medium term, and we get a vaccine in the long term.

    The less we do, the worse the disease will get and the greater the economic pain in the long run.
     
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  15. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    It could, but I'm a numbers guy, most likely, least likely. It comes from almost 2 decades working in the ER. Those of us who make life and death decisions accept it is not a perfect world, the average person can't fathom it.

    So far we know a few important things. Diabetics are at much greater risk for poor outcomes, as are morbidly obese. Those with lung disease or poor cardiovascular status as well. Those are what we call facts.

    Since I have none of those issues chances are if I get it I won't die. If I did get it I would certainly want to be put on the cocktail of Zithromax/Plaquenil however.
     
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  16. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    CNBC reporting that the feds are now saying that if they do not have your information for direct deposit, a paper check will take up 20 weeks to receive.
     
  17. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    I've read where the SBA relief is also running into some serious snags.
     
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  18. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    More info:
    Direct deposit in the next 3 weeks.
    Paper checks will not start going out for 3 weeks. Will be going to lowest income Americans first. Can only process up to 5 million checks per week.
     
  19. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    Not good.
     
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  20. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    I'm pretty much an eternal economic pessimist, and I studied it. When the economy crashed in 08 it took us 1.5-2.5 years to recover (depending on the metric and who you ask.) But with 2008 there were underlying systemic issues that had to be sorted out. I think in the current situation once we come out on the other end I don't think the recovery will take near as long, as the causation was force majeure and not systemic. I'm much more optimistic on the recovery this time, we just need to get through the actual virus itself.
     
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