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Unreliable Poll Numbers (formerly cratering)

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. nolancarey

    nolancarey GC Hall of Fame

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    No. Just one of WI, MI, or PA to get to 270. At least according to your link.
     
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  2. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep, I should have put my glasses on, Michigan has 16 not 10. So all the tossups and PA or MI. Wisconsin doesn't even matter at this point unless he can flip another state to go along with it.
     
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  3. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Minnesota might be this year's Wisconsin. Either way you slice it, if Trump wins FL and NC, that means he's probably going to win most of the toss up states he won last time. Which means then that Biden cannot have a slip up in MN, WI, MI or PA. But Trump has to get Florida under control before any of this other matters.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Correct. Trump wins FL and NC and the Dems will be very nervous. Recall the story of Bill Clinton telling Terry McAulliffe not even to bother boarding the plane to Hillary's "victory party" once the results in FL and NC were known. Biden could still win it without them, but I'd bet against it.
     
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  5. nolancarey

    nolancarey GC Hall of Fame

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    Could be true, but I also think Kelly will help Biden win Arizona.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    I don't think they'd be that nervous over NC. The #1 focus has always been to take back WI, MI and PA + hold on to Clinton 2016 states. Certainly they'd love to have an early night and pull Florida, but they aren't banking on Florida to flip the White House.
     
  7. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    It looks very unlikely that Trump can flip any Clinton '16 state. That leaves PA, MI, WI, FL, NC, and AZ as the key battlegrounds. Biden wins if he take any 3, or FL + one more. If not, Trump wins.
     
  8. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    Biden down to -160 which means some money has been coming in on Trump
     
  9. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    I feel less confident in a Biden win than I did a few weeks ago. Nothing concrete, just a variety of vague feelings.

    Meanwhile, the latest from RCP:
    upload_2020-8-14_11-53-33.png
     
  10. nolancarey

    nolancarey GC Hall of Fame

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    It can all change. And trump has proven he can win before.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Same here. In a normal election, Biden would be in pretty good shape, but this isn't a normal election. Trump is going to do everything he can to steal the election. The stuff with the Postal Service is so disheartening. It's hard to believe we've come to this -- that a president can openly disable the USPS to prevent votes from being counted. That's banana republic stuff.

    I keep wondering where we're gonna move if Trump 'wins'. The wife and I have actually had serious discussions about that.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
  12. RIP

    RIP Election Prediction Savant VIP Member

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    In before "gIt OUt oF hERe YoU daMn MArxIsT ComMiE"
     
  13. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Deafening silence when Trump is mentioned and Ivanka's stunned look as she learns BMWs are made in South Carolina. This is over a year old, but no doubt our traditional allies will be doing cartwheels when Biden is elected:

     
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  14. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    This cartoon also comes to mind.
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    This seems fairly desperate:

    ‘Happy Sunday! We want GOD!’
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  16. pkaib01

    pkaib01 Premium Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  17. HallGator

    HallGator Senile Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Outer Limits
    If you take the Rasmussen poll, which did get the last election correct, there is now a 1 point difference in the POTUS race.

    I've thought all along this could be a very close race and right now it appears that's where we are headed. I can only imagine how crazy it's going to get if this comes down to the wire.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  18. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Rassmussen is nowhere accurate on the popular vote. It really isnt close right now. However this graphic from 538 is how I like to look at it which shows how close the electoral vote is.... which is really close.


    upload_2020-8-31_12-10-20.png

    2020 Election Forecast
     
  19. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Rasmussen was one of the few national polls to call the 2016 correctly. On the other hand Rasmussen was also one of the pollsters that predicted a Romney victory in 2012. As I expressed in other posts, the key will be turnout and so far it looks like Democratic turnout this November will be more like 2008 and 2012 than 2016.
    Rasmussen in 2012, posted November 5, 2012, the day before the election.
    Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily
     
  20. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    This one is good too... who is really important...

    upload_2020-8-31_12-13-17.png