Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!
  1. Gator Country Black Friday special!

    Now's a great time to join or renew and get up to $20 off your annual subscription! LIMITED QUANTITIES -- for details click here. P.S. This is a great opportunity to upgrade to VIP and get extras like less ads on forums, full color calendar w/sports schedule, SMS alerts, and VIP only email newsletters...

Unreliable Poll Numbers (formerly cratering)

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. thomadm

    thomadm Premium Member

    745
    94
    253
    Apr 9, 2007
    I dont like either one, so im sitting this one out. I will not vote for a baby boomer ever again.
     
    • Come On Man Come On Man x 1
  2. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

    13,548
    1,437
    1,628
    Apr 3, 2007
    Atlanta
    Please rephrase. Bad visual.
     
    • Funny Funny x 13
    • Best Post Ever Best Post Ever x 2
  3. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

    11,964
    3,713
    1,828
    Apr 3, 2007
    Plano, Texas
    It was 232 to 306 in 2016.

    Michigan looks totally gone at this point. That moves it to 248 to 306 and there are 22 left to get to 270.

    Florida alone gets you there at that point.

    Or Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Arizona.

    Or North Carolina and any of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Arizona.

    Those are the states that will be sick of the attack ads from both sides by the time we go to the polls. The rest of the states pretty much matter for whether there is a blow out or a tight race.
     
  4. wgbgator

    wgbgator Tiny "Boop Squig" Shorterly Premium Member

    22,998
    1,176
    1,968
    Apr 19, 2007
    A Van Down By the River
    I've seen a few ads in Florida too, they were mostly about China. But when you cant run on your record, your only option is basically go negative on the other guy.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

    11,964
    3,713
    1,828
    Apr 3, 2007
    Plano, Texas
    I'm seeing the Trump ads in Texas. We rarely see these ads because we are never in play. I think the latest polls have Trump up 2%, in Texas. I don't think it flips, but I didn't think we'd be seeing ads either.
     
  6. thegatorvault

    thegatorvault Senior

    205
    76
    338
    Jan 11, 2015
    There is only one reason Trump may lose.....and that is Trump. I think his record is decent enough but his personality and Twitter account, not so much. Biden seems to be a weak candidate and this is the only worry the Dems should have; this will be a 'referendum on Trump election', but their Achilles heal is their candidate and it may mean people just stay home in the end.

    I don't think too much of the polls anymore but even if I did, I don't think they matter now. I would pay most attention after the debates. I think it will be a wild ride either way.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

    4,199
    864
    418
    Oct 16, 2012
    While I agree Biden is a train wreck, relying on people simply voting against Trump to win a general election isn't a solid strategy. Bearing in mind just a couple months ago, the polling numbers were much tighter and they will likely tighten again. You'd expect Trump's numbers to be low right now with double-digit unemployment and no end in sight for Covid-19. What happens if Trump trims UE to single digits, the stock market is at a record high and we get a vaccine before election day? Biden needs to prove why he's the better alternative.
     
  8. danmann65

    danmann65 GC Hall of Fame

    1,072
    325
    348
    May 22, 2015
    National polling numbers are irrelevant. There are 50 states and Biden need to win enough to get 270 electors. Winning New York and California by 20 million votes does you no good if you lose the midwest and florida by 1 vote per state.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

    2,028
    388
    368
    Apr 3, 2007
    I don't think UE will come back enough by November and the Covid19 issues fall on the President. He will lose and lose big. Just my .02
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
    • Like Like x 1
  10. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

    5,890
    669
    318
    Apr 3, 2007
    Sarasota
    One reason I'd like to see more PA polls is because I think it is probably closer to MI right now than is suggested. May be a bit overconfident, but I put it at 268 Biden - 204 Trump right now with Wisconsin, Arizona, NC and Florida in play. Maybe there is something more going on in PA keeping the margin tighter, but I have a hard time seeing MI go blue and PA red.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  11. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

    11,964
    3,713
    1,828
    Apr 3, 2007
    Plano, Texas
    They were clearly irrelevant with a margin in the low single digits. I'd be shocked if there is any way a 10% gap on November 3rd isn't indicative of a flip of key states. But yes, the electoral college does indeed exist.
     
  12. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

    4,199
    864
    418
    Oct 16, 2012
    If those things play out, yes, I can see Trump losing. But the early indicators from May show the economy bouncing back pretty strong and a vaccine would be a huge shot in the arm for Trump. (pun not intended)
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  13. ajoseph

    ajoseph Premium Member

    2,229
    478
    388
    Jan 15, 2008
    Anything can happen. Trump might make a national speech that condemns racism, shows contrition and cultivates a true understanding of the pulse of the country. Covid may miraculously disappear. The economy will shot-put back to 2019 levels. Trump will throw away his iPhone, delete his twitter account, and reach peace with the media.

    It could happen.

    But odds are pretty strongly against any of the above happening.
     
    • Funny Funny x 6
    • Agree Agree x 2
  14. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

    8,139
    1,296
    443
    Apr 3, 2007
    Philadelphia
    I think PA will go Biden. Trump won so narrowly over Hillary,
    great shot Biden wins here.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

    8,139
    1,296
    443
    Apr 3, 2007
    Philadelphia

    All true but then again, Rick and Marty may find the Templar treasure on Oak Island, Israel and Palestine may become best buddies and merge into one friendly nation and Roger Stone may turn Democrat but all very unlikely.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  16. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

    8,139
    1,296
    443
    Apr 3, 2007
    Philadelphia
    Agreed, I think the polling picture is a bit unclear but what is clear is Dem's have been pouring out to vote in the midterms and primaries. A heavy turnout, if not corrupted by graft, will favor dems in my opinion.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
    • Winner Winner x 2
  17. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    6,851
    1,772
    1,528
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    Biden was -110 in vegas at the start of June. He's now-140
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  18. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

    28,998
    1,418
    1,073
    Apr 3, 2007
    Chicago
    Florida night not be enough. There are a lot of ways Biden can win without Florida. If Biden does win Florida, we’re probably looking at an electoral college landslide.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  19. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

    5,890
    669
    318
    Apr 3, 2007
    Sarasota
    Yeah, Biden doesn't need FL and if he wins you could probably call the race. There is really no likely scenario where Trump can win and also lose Florida.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  20. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

    2,880
    1,040
    633
    Nov 30, 2010
    I find these numbers most reliable. Not sure if they do it any more but the U of Iowa has run election stock markets since the early 90s. Markets are the best way BY FAR to aggregate ( & disseminate) information.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1