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Unemployment drops again, 2x more new jobs v expected

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by pkaib01, Aug 5, 2022.

  1. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    132,577 = exactly what?
     
  2. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    You don’t even need to know what 132,577,000 people full time employed means. Just look at the chart and see the right side is higher than anything left. That means we currently have more of whatever that chat measures. That chart measures full time employed.
     
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  3. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    Are conservatives really going to do this again?
    When employment numbers improve:

    Under Obama - The numbers are fake!
    Under Trump - Man, he's doing a great job!
    Under Biden - The numbers are fake!
     
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  4. jjgator55

    jjgator55 GC Hall of Fame

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    Imagine that.
     
  5. tegator80

    tegator80 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes.

    Just as "you's guys" do the exact same thing but for opposite regimes. I own this side. Why do you rationalize yours?
     
  6. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    There's no question that both sides do a ton of partisan stuff, but I really don't recall Trump's numbers being called fake here. Do you?
     
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  7. tegator80

    tegator80 GC Hall of Fame

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    If I may assist (again), we all think about "full-time" in our own perspective. I was an engineering consultant. I do not have absolute proof, but there is NO WAY there are STEM jobs pouring all over the place today and there are shortages of quality candidates. Perhaps a few in the teaching and medical support areas but overall, yes, it is "Welcome to Walmart!" jobs.

    Please stop trying to read into the numbers what you choose to believe. I KNOW what is being cultivated, and this is NOT the 1990's.
     
  8. pkaib01

    pkaib01 GC Hall of Fame

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    For the life of me, I can't quite figure out the point you're trying to make. Are you saying FRED has changed the definition of "employed, usually full time" over the last 60 years?

    Or are you stating that the mix of full time job types has changed over the last 60 year? If so, that's not really insightful. Of course it has. One can look at the loss of farming and manufacturing jobs to see that over that period to observe that.

    To wit:

    [​IMG]
     
  9. jjgator55

    jjgator55 GC Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]
     
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  10. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL at Trump being the only one negative. Couldn’t even beat Bush 2 and Carter blew him away.
     
  11. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Respectfully there are more jobs than ever. They are paying more than ever. Your cousin’s uncle’s son’s next door neighbor whose barber’s brother’s yoga instructor’s husband who is looking for a programmer job isn’t a meaningful measure.

    If we are talking about observations I am continuing to hire data scientists, data analysts, and am investing heavily in tools of analysis that are being built by IT teams that are hiring. AI and ML tools are going in everywhere. Big data platforms everywhere. E-commerce site updates and data platforms to host e-commerce going in everywhere. Consumer mining tools going in everywhere. Customer relationship management tools everywhere. Supply chain tools and forecasting platforms are going in everywhere. The list of needs of major corporations go on and on. GDP is at an all time high and that business takes maintenance and development. The demand is so high many of us are leaning into India to supplement talent here.

    There are over a million business and professional services jobs open.

    Table A. Job openings, hires, and total separations by industry, seasonally adjusted - 2022 M06 Results
     
  12. pkaib01

    pkaib01 GC Hall of Fame

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    I do believe trump gets a COVID pass here.

    He didn't do anything outright disruptive to employment prior to COVID-19.
     
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  13. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Actually no, there wasn’t an entire network devoted to taking positive economic news under trump and spinning it non-stop to something bad. It’s nutty.
     
  14. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    True, but Carter had prolonged stagflation and gas shortages, Reagan had two recessions and the black Monday stock market crash, Bush 2 had both the dot com crash and the Great Recession, Biden has Covid, European war, inflation, and supply chain disruption…. A negative average over four years is unbelievable bad.
     
  15. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    If so, that's exactly what the SPR should NOT be used for. Again, it's micromanaging Big Oil. I'd be amazed if there isn't more than this going on with over 20,000 new hires since the first of the year. From your article:

    The inventory release is meant “to serve as a bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up,” according to a statement issued by the White House on Thursday.

    The federal government doesn't know crapola about the oil and gas business. Lift the regulations, the inflated prices charged for leases, complete the pipelines, reopen new drilling on federal lands and waters, and stop using ESG woke scoring with the banks to stop funds from flowing to the fossil fuel industries, money they need for operations.
     
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  16. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Ok. I see. We had more full-time workers in March 2022 than in July 2022. What does this mean?

    March 2022 - 132,718,000
    April 2022 - 132,067,000
    May 2022 - 132,800,000
    June 2022 - 132,648,000
    July 2022 - 132,577,000

    How is it that full-time jobs went down -71,000 from June to July when employment numbers went up 528,000?

    If not full time, does that mean all of the jobs created were part-time jobs?

    Like I said, this is a strange jobs report.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2022
  17. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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  18. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    If Trump did the same thing, your opinion would be 180. Not mine
     
  19. pkaib01

    pkaib01 GC Hall of Fame

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    Mind you, I'm not a trump apologist but not all of those events are equal in magnitude and impact to the pandemic. The Great Recession was closest and that spanned parts of two presidential terms (2008-9).

    Also, Reagan, W, Clinton and Obama all had 2 terms for which to even out their monthly averages. COVID-19 was a full 1/4 of trump's presidency.

    The only trump policy I can remember that could conceivably impact employment was the tariffs and even then I need to do some research.
     
  20. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    First, Trump would have never done what Biden did from his first day in office.

    Second, if Trump used the SPR in an attempt to temporarily lower gas pump prices to buy votes and then tried to replace with some future contract that may not happen, I'd be blasting him too.

    Just curious, your article points out that the Biden Administration has confirmed gas and oil production will be up by the end of the year. Just how do you suppose this is going to happen unless they have a deal with energy companies that we aren't aware of? Inquiring minds want to know.
     
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