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Tuberville, race, crime and reparations

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Oct 10, 2022.

  1. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    Oct 30, 2017
    Gonna give you a hint, bail reform's most significant impact is on people charged with low-level offenses. It is people who are too poor to pay a cash bail and get out of jail on bails that are $1,000 to $10,000 who are most impacted by bail reform. These are generally misdemeanors and low-level felonies.

    Why? Because bail reform laws are almost always written in such a way that cash bail and pretrial detention remain an option for those charged with serious crimes (ex. murder, rape, armed robbery, etc.). Your claim that bail reform allows career offenders to terrorize society is nonsense. Here are some recent findings from a study in Florida conducted by some professors at FSU:

    Administrative Order 12.510-04/2020.9 had two main objectives: 1) to reduce bond amounts for a subset of charges, and 2) facilitate the pretrial release of eligible defendants. The analyses described in this report suggest that the Administrative Order successfully achieved these objectives. In a series of bivariate and multivariate analyses, we demonstrated that the bond reductions resulting from the Administrative Order led to a greater share of defendants being released pretrial and shorter periods of pretrial detention overall. An important follow-up, however, is whether there are downsides to reducing pretrial detention for community safety and court efficiency. Accordingly, in additional analyses we examined the effect of the Administrative Order on new criminal activity and failures to appear. We found that the increased rate of release in the period following the Administrative Order had no negative impact on levels of pretrial failure. In fact, the rates of pretrial failure to appear and new criminal activity actually declined following the implementation of the Administrative Order. These findings persisted even after controlling for a range of potential confounds, including defendant, current offense, and criminal history information.
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    In other words, lowering bond amounts to facilitate more people being released did not lead to any rise in new crimes or failures to appear. In fact, failures to appear and new criminal activity dropped. (I can't upload the PDF with the study, and I can't locate a copy online. I have the study because I do a lot of work on bail reform. The study is titled: "Pretrial Detention, Public Safety, and Court Efficiency: Exploring the Consequences of Measures Enacted to Reduce the Spread of COVID-19 in Palm Beach County Jails," and Jennifer Copp is one of the authors.)

    Meanwhile, studies have found pretrial incarceration of low-risk defendants to be quite harmful to society, including increasing the likelihood a person will recidivate.
    https://craftmediabucket.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/PDFs/LJAF_Report_hidden-costs_FNL.pdf
    Longer pretrial detentions are associated with the likelihood of NCA pending trial. This is particularly true for defendants deemed to be low risk. The longer low-risk defendants are detained, the more likely they are to have new criminal activity pending trial. Defendants detained 2 to 3 days are 1.39 times more likely to have NCA than defendants released within a day; those detained 31 or more days are 1.74 times more likely.
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    The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention
    We find that detained defendants are 25% more likely than similarly situated releasees to plead guilty, are 43% more likely to be sentenced to jail, and receive jail sentences that are more than twice as long on average. Furthermore, those detained pretrial are more likely to commit future crimes, which suggests that detention may have a criminogenic effect. These differences persist even after fully controlling for the initial bail amount, offense, demographic information, and criminal history characteristics.
     
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