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Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Jul 24, 2024.

  1. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    None of that was my point. Setting aside the fact that .4 is a statistically meaningless number, I am saying whomever consolidates that group of undecideds and wafflers wins. That number is similar to the poll from fox the other day, it’s showing to be a meaningful data point.
    And these voters tend to break late, so watching those numbers (along with enthusiasm) it will give you an idea of who they will eventually break for, since change is what they almost always break towards. The cook poll today asked specifically on change questions, and it was an almost flat split, which is why the race is tied.
    If by chance it stayed even on that measure til Election Day on the better change candidate, assuming equal enthusiasm, the candidate who better consolidates their base before that will win, because the wafflers might flip or might not flip, but they might just stay home if they aren’t enthused about it. Which is why that number is critical - Basically two of the three scenarios with them are bad for their candidate. And right now both have more than enough of them to easily flip the election in one direction or the other.
     
  2. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Nah, polling numbers are gradually getting worse for Kamala in the battlegrounds as the undecideds whittle down and she still refuses to put herself out there. It'll be a close result and Kamala may even win the popular vote, but Trump is going to be your next POTUS. Additionally, there is a chance for an October surprise to hit Kamala's numbers noticeably. Note that her campaign is still quite young and for example, if it turns out Walz lied about his son seeing that shooting, the media won't let that one go. There's really not much we don't already know about Donald Trump, so his downside risk in an October surprise is quite low comparatively speaking.
     
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  3. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    FYI
    Walz Says His Teenage Son Witnessed Shooting
     
  4. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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  5. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    I think Rich Baris (Big Data Poll, @peoples_pundit) is the best pollster. In 2016 he had Hillary with a slight edge in Minnesota
    She won by 1.52% (I believe). My recollection is every other pollster had Hillary up by at least 5%. Minnesota is competitive this year but the margin of fraud will probably give the W to Kamala, but not necessarily. Fraud should be less in 2024 than 2020. The wild card for me is Democrat micro-targeting of voters with ads and their get out the vote efforts, like volunteers going door to door.

    Door to door doesn't work well for Pubs. Behavioral research has shown that Pubs respond to someone they know who calls them and persuades them to vote. In this area a company called "10X" is working hard to get out the vote in Michigan. This group or people copycatting them are setting up operations in other swing states They're behind the curve in this election but every effort helps.

    The huge (4%-7%) Democtat bias in many.polls is designed to suppress Repub fundraising and turnout as I have said.

    Rich Baris put the below chart together, evidently. These are the major pollsters and shows how they did in the 2020 presidential election. Note that Trafalgar is ranked near the top. Note the other pollsters in the top 5 or so. I can tell you that pro bettors refer to polls you see near the top and often laugh at polls near the middle and bottom. As election day grows closer the polls with a deliberate Dem bias often start posting polls with less of a Dem lean to maintain their credibility.

    Nate Silver wants to restore his credibility this year. To build drama he pretends the race is tighter than it is but he wants his final poll to be on the money. I think his final prediction will be for Trump to win.

     
  6. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    First October surprise just hit. Though it's not a big surprise. The latest Jan 6 indictment from Jack Smith just dropped and it's unsealed. Team Trump has two weeks to respond.

    I think Vance won the debate last night by split decision, but Walz's best moment was asking Vance directly about the 2020 election results, and then claiming Harris/Walz is for the people, and Trump/Vance is for Trump. The sealed indictment, which admittedly I have not read yet, very likely has some juicy tidbits the Harris campaign can use to drive this point home.

    Could be enough to sway some voters to not vote for Trump. Much like the Hillary email story likely made enough of a difference in 2016.
     
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  7. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    July 23rd. Poll conducted July 22-23.
     
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  8. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    Dick Baris isn't confined by your parameters of time bro.
     
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  9. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    Anybody still supporting trump at this point is not using thought or logic.
     
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  10. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    Youth vote has been trending Trump for many months

     
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  11. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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  12. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    Not sure if this would affect the polls at all

     
  13. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I mean, let's be real. Wisconsin is going Trump...

    Screenshot 2024-10-03 at 10.10.49 AM.png

    Screenshot 2024-10-03 at 10.10.36 AM.png
     
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  14. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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  15. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Think Trump has an excellent shot in Wisconsin.

    The Trafalgar Group Wisconsin poll released today:

    WI-Gen-Pres-Report-1001.pdf (thetrafalgargroup.org)

    Trump 47.1
    Harris 46

    Conducted 09/28/24 - 09/30/24 • 1079 Respondents • Likely General Election Voters • Response Rate: 3.60% • Margin of Error: 2.9% • Confidence: 95% • Response Distribution: 50% • Methodology: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-Methodology
     
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  16. coleg

    coleg GC Hall of Fame

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    Wisc. is nearly 42%-42% D to R. However the age is skewed such that 52% of Pubs are over 50 yr old where only 40% of Dems are. Not a truly staggering stat unless good old Trafalgar wants to show the felon winning by ANY kind of margin so they polled an unbelievable 71.7 % of their respondents from the 50+ age group. Now that's some good ole Pub home cookin'. LOL
     
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  17. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Silver's poll averages has Harris +3.5% Nationally. That would equate to 90 to 98% chance of Harris winning the EC, per his older stats on the free part of his blog.
     
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  18. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    At this point I just enjoy Okee's and Fox's ability to take any poll result and twist it to say that Trump is going to win
     
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  19. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    If Trafalagar is showing Old Man Don at +1 then I think Harris can begin ordering the champagne
     
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  20. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I think we can file this one under "not trending well"....

    Screenshot 2024-10-03 at 1.51.27 PM.png
     
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