Trump - Putin meeting in Alaska

Likely AI but tells the story …

Constantin von Hoffmeister (@eurosiberia)

 

Link?

 

Well, of course, that what Ukraine wants. I even agree that's what Ukraine deserves. And don't stop there. Ukraine also wants and deserves full reparations for the war; war crimes trials for Putin and his inner circle; the return of its population that Russia has kidnapped; and the relocation at Russian expense of all ethnic Russians back to Russia, so this just doesn't happen again in 20 years. Now I have no idea how this will all play out (I hope for the best for Ukraine, of course), but I think I can say with a certainty that Ukraine will not walk away with all of that. So it's a matter of what Ukraine will settle for. I absolutely think that Ukraine can get better than what Russia is willing to settle for today by continuing to fight, but "full autonomy" and an "intact country" are probably not in the cards. Full autonomy from Russia might be mostly plausible, but until the day the Ukraine is willing and able to defeat Russia under its own means, with no international support, then its autonomy is going to be constrained to a degree (rightfully so). As to an intact country, I firmly believe that the only way Ukraine will be able to militarily reach its 2014 borders is if Russia collapses poltically and/or its armed forces rebel and quit the war. Now that’s a possible scenario, but it is not in the U.S. interest to help that scenario along for a host of good reasons.

Yes, I believe that’s correct. The territories that Putin has demanded since January as the price of peace would make Ukraine even more vulnerable to future invasion. Much of it involves bridgeheads and fortifications that Russia has been military unable to take despite the most reckless waste of lives.

True to an extent. Ukraine is not wholly dependent on U.S. aid as, say South Korea was in 1953, but it still needs what we provide to meaningfully resist Russia in the field as well as turn up the domestic temperature in Russia. In my opinion, Ukraine probably has to come up with – what the Trump Administration would consider – a reasonable counteroffer that Russia rejects for us to sustain or increase material aid. I hope that’s Ukraine’s play.

Violently concur. I hope the Trump Administration ends up seeing it the same way. But, as I stated, I think it will take a reasonable Ukrainian counteroffer that Russia fully rejects to get us to that point. Ukraine probably can’t just openly say no and keep this Administration on its side.

 

Almost wholly true. The whole truth is that Putin's radars can't see the other four either.

 

Enter Europe’s Century of Humiliation (and this directly relating to demonizing Russia) …

 

Good info. Any thoughts on the SU-57 and their Nebo-M? Read about these but OMH.