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Trump announces cease fire between Iran and Israel (to be phased in over the next 24 hours)

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by g8orbill, Jun 23, 2025 at 6:51 PM.

  1. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I know the lamestream media are just a bunch of dishonest skunks, but they said it was leaked. It's likely was the only honest thing they reported all day.
     
  2. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    Even then, it's more valuable as leverage. Or just the thought you "might" have one and a delivery system (covert or otherwise) to get it on target. And even that doesn't get you much. A full blown program - which they were shooting for - is a "you can't invade me" card. Also, if a proxy did it and it got back that Iran was behind it, it would be the same scenario, with nuking Tehran clearly on the table.

    Prediction: They'll lay low and try to stay in power. And we won't hear anything about their nuke program while Trump is in office. After Trump? Who knows.

    And let's be honest here. This was a layup and probably as much about distraction and self aggrandizement for Trump than anything. Worst-case scenario (and this would be very BAD) we lose a couple planes (Highly unlikely). He gets to look like a tough guy and people aren't talking about his myriad other failures. Haley or DeSantis administration probably does the same thing, but 100x better and with real results that stick. . . Oh, and no dumbass tariff policy to boot!
     
  3. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    The IAEA official said way more than the IAEA would in the report. He shouldn't have said as much as he did. They have to go back, never left actually, and start monitoring again. It'll be interesting to see if Iran allows full and open inspection this time around, TBD.

    It just goes to show the leaked report is just so much garbage by comparison.
     
  4. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Damage to the entrance and access roads would be consistent with what you could see from overhead photos. Until you get underground you won't definitely know the results of the bombing.

    I would guess you could look at the amount of material (rocks,dirt) that has caved in and knowing the excavated volume of space below you could determine to what extent it has been caved in?
     
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  5. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    Not really. Does it matter that Pakistan has them? What effect has that had on your life, or US national security? It sucks, I guess, but it doesn't represent some major threat, especially to the US. I maintain it was more about leverage and the security of the administration than some offensive weapon they plan to use some day.
     
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  6. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    There are so many contradictions in this post. IAEA will say something in public but won't say something in public. Because they need to go back. Or not because they are already there.

    And neither their official report or the quote in any way dispute the DIA initial assessment.
     
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  7. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    I would assume that is all true, but I am not an expert in intelligence on nuclear facilities or satellite intelligence.
     
  8. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    There is the little matter of the Iranians developing ballistic missiles, now at 2 tons and working toward 4 tons, to have the capability of delivering nuclear weapons to strike their enemies. The Israelis know firsthand the capabilities of 2-ton ballistic missiles.

    The largest matter of all is that Iran has for 46 years chanted Death to Israel and Death to America. Just late in 2024, Ayatollah Khamenei said Death to Israel and Death to America is the policy of Iran, not slogans.

    Yes, it matters that Iran cannot now or ever have nuclear weapons. Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating the end of hostilities with India earlier this year. Iran has a policy of Death to Israel and Death to America.

    All US presidents have said Iran cannot now or ever have nuclear weapons. President Trump is the one to step up and stop Iran when action finally came due. This has always been US policy.
     
  9. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    Do Pakistanis chant death to America?
    Death to Israel?
    Maybe they do…I have not seen that yet.
     
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  10. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Really, how do you know the DIA hasn't been contradicted?
     
  11. ajoseph

    ajoseph Premium Member

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    The distraction was for one week. Trump will reach some deal with the Iranians, call it the Great Deal, and that’ll be it for the next 3.5 years.

    But I am not sure Israel would have attacked Iran’s infrastructure if Harris had won, or even if Haley was elected. Netanyahu and Trump are simpatico, which for Israel presented fortuitous timing.
     
  12. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    This would be great . . . if I actually gave a crap about anything you have to say or think.

    In my best John McLaughlin voice: "Bye Bye Now!!!"
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 25, 2025 at 11:14 AM
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  13. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    All the time (with some India thrown in). Maybe change the channel once in a while. Or read. . .

    Ever heard of the Pashtuns?
     
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  14. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    Iran had a count down clock that counts down to the end of Israel. If they say they want to destroy Israel and fund groups that attack them, maybe we should take them at their word?

    There was no way we were going to lose any aircraft on this operation. The Israelis had taken out the rest of Iran's Air Defenses over the last 12 days that they left from the strike in October. They had air superiority in Iran after the first day or two of the operation. I'm not sure what DeSantis or Haley would have done differently that would result in a better results.
     
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  15. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    IDK, if ever there was a time, this was it. Assads? Done!. Hezbollah? Done! HAMAS? Done! Iranian citizens getting feisty? Done! Air defenses identified and easily wiped out? Done!

    If you ever were going to hit these guys, this was the time. Weakest they've been since '79. This is just basic wargaming stuff.
     
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  16. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    Rhetoric. They care about staying in power. They aren't pious, that's a ruse. Like many, most are probably perverts and pedos. They're gutted now. It will be all they can do just to stay in power, and that will be their focus for a while (at least until the end of Trump).
     
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  17. orangeblue_coop

    orangeblue_coop GC Hall of Fame

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    And the Trump administration isnt?
     
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  18. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, all US presidents said the Iran should never have nuclear weapons. When Trump "tore up" the original nuclear deal negotiated by Obama Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium didn't exceed an enrichment level of 5%. When the bombs were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites a few days days ago Iran had enriched uranium up to 60% much closer to weapons grade. Not sure that's really progress. Also the chances are that some and possibly most of the enriched uranium was moved from those sites prior to the US bombing.
     
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  19. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    How do you know it is rhetoric? Seeing as Iran funded the Oct 7th attack on Israel, which was supposed to be a two front strike, from Gaza and the north, seems like it might be more than rhetoric.
     
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  20. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    I guess I'm saying that ULTIMATELY it's rhetoric. Doesn't mean they don't hate Israel or want to hurt them, etc. Funding an attack by a proxy on a declared enemy is a "little" different than launching a nuke, would you not agree? I even thought at the time, "What happens if you win? If Israel is gone? Oh, yeah, they turn on YOU". Israel is a convenient windmill to tilt at, with most of the value being in its ability to keep the population focused on an external enemy rather than themselves. Yeah, they poke Israel to promote that philosophy and show they're "doing something", but eliminating Israel was never part of the equation IMO. Again, just rhetoric to sate the masses. Sort of like China and Taiwan. The idea of Taiwan has incredible value in terms of keeping the population behind the regime.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2025 at 11:17 AM
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