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Total quarantine or herd immunity

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by CRIMDEFgator, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    An important tactic of authoritarians is to destroy confidence in being able to establish objective truth.
     
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  2. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Okay, so there is no chance to see the signal. Every data point appears to be "fabricated."

    So let's return to the initial point: the claim here is that proper isolation of nursing homes could have allowed us to avoid shutdowns. Given that Florida, a state you praised as having done the right thing on the issue, had it get into the nursing homes, and Georgia and Texas had it get into the nursing homes at about national averages, and other hotspots that utilized policies to prevent patients from coming back into nursing homes averaged out to about the national average in terms of how much it got into the nursing home, controlling for overall infection rate and severity, what is the evidence to suggest that point is at all accurate?
     
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  3. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    The "sending" of "known" patients back is part of the issue not the whole issue. Nursing home should have shutdown to outside visitors and not allowed new residents in unless they were proven to not be sick.
    In my area one particular facility refused to let some of the medical staff test their patients(they arraigned to get outside testing done) They have 95% of the ALF deaths in our county. I'm good friends with one of the providers so its not guessing.

    What's the raw death toll in NY? I know 18%, what's the raw number?
     
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  4. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    I doubt they would have been able to do that either. And all of this is avoiding the obviousness that the employees live in the community in general. I don't see how you protect those locales without going full bubble around the facilities, not letting staff leave and re-enter. This is especially true in hotspots.

    I am sure there was a lot of CYA activity from those facilities. But you have to build policies knowing that will happen.

    It would be somewhere around 5,400-5,500 if you buy their numbers and extrapolate them to the current death totals.
     
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  5. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    You do realize that the national guard/miltary has medical units, there are people who were laid off from Doctors offices, there are any number of ways they could have mitigated the risk instead of doing nothing. They may not have been able to totally fix it in a day but the course that was taken showed ZERO planning or consideration for the impact.

    We knew early that it affected the old and sick with much higher mortality.

    BTW we should have forced nursing homes in Florida to do the same. It was left up to them early on and some dropped the ball big time.
     
  6. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    You could screen staff coming to work, that would help. Some places they were told come to work or you're fired. Sick or not.


    The medical staff was begging the Admin to let them test their new patients they were told if you do your contract is terminated....that was in early March stay tuned the lawyers are already digging around. My friend flat out documented with every case that testing was refused by Admin.
     
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  7. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    If we are going to apply the policy nationally or over huge numbers of states, then I seriously question the availability of resources.

    Regardless of the claim, I have no horse in the game of Cuomo's response. I agree that there were planning issues on all levels in the US (which doesn't excuse the planning issue on any other level). I just see no capability of avoiding shutdowns. Nobody in the world has effectively avoided shutdowns when the disease came to their country. A few places have tried, and they have been hit much harder for their efforts.
     
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  8. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Agreed that screenings would have helped, although not eliminated the risk (again, we don't have a good sense of exactly the asymptomatic prevalence, but adding that to pre-symptomatics would cause issues still).

    Sounds like that place should be nailed to the wall to the degree that ownership of the facility changes hands. Hope it does, because that does sound awful. Seems like the people that got into the business to milk money from Medicare and warehouse older people.
     
  9. thegator92

    thegator92 Premium Member

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    I know, I wonder if I am an asymptomatic carrier too. My wife went to China and Vietnam in January and then my son got really sick about two weeks after she came back, then got better after about 7 days. A woman I work with and sit right next to was sick for weeks, the last day before our office closed she came in and was coughing and sniffling, because she ran out of days off. Later she tested positive and went to the hospital. Yet me and the rest of my family have not had so much as a sniffle in three months.

    I grew up right on the beach in West Palm, so it was always breezy, maybe that's why I didn't notice much of a temperature difference.
     
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  10. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Give it up, I know I have. Some people just won't listen. So partisan they won't dare criticize one of their own. Sad.
     
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  11. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    One more reason not to commit to the herd immunity approach: we don't know what the long-term effects of Covid-19 are on people. My niece was recently diagnosed with vasculitis, and I suspect she got it from coronavirus. Vasculitis is the inflammation of blood vessels in various parts of the body, and it's apparently very painful (feels like fire in the affected areas). (Kawasaki Disease is one form of vasculitis that's been associated with Covid-19 in children.) She's about 6-7 years old, and spent the better part of the past week in the hospital getting treatment. Will she make a full recovery, or will she have vasculitis for the rest of her life? Older people have reported scarring of lung tissue--will they make a full recovery or not? Don't forget that many younger adults have had a stroke while dealing with Covid-19. I don't think anyone wants to be dealing with any of these three conditions for the rest of their lives if they don't have to. This is clearly not the flu we're dealing with.
     
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  12. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    So many people consider death or not the only barometer of adverse impacts. So wrong
     
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