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Total quarantine or herd immunity

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by CRIMDEFgator, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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  2. gogata125

    gogata125 Junior

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    We can look at South Korea as an example of how this worked.
     
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  3. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Nursing home patients need constant trained assistance from nurses, nursing assistants, and need constant access to doctors and a fair amount of medical equipment. You need to setup an in-house pharmacy to manage the medications. You need to hire a huge crew to handle logistics and cleaning and sanitation. You need to establish supply chains for necessary supplies, such as medical equipment, medications, and proper food.

    No, New York did not have thousands of free hospital rooms.

    You don't seem to have a very good grasp as to what actually goes into running a nursing home. Perhaps that is why message board solutions often end up being shallow and unworkable...

    I am not even defending the decision, but pointing out that isolating nursing homes is almost impossible.
     
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  4. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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  5. thegator92

    thegator92 Premium Member

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    I disagreed because there is some erroneous information here, where you said viruses don't like warm weather. Dengue, Ebola, Marburg, Zika, Lassa, West Nile - all viruses originally found in tropical Africa. Yellow fever, Smallpox, Lyme's, Measles, Hepatitis, Rubella, Polio, HIV- viruses that can occur or did occur at all times of year. The perceived seasonality of viruses is because of what people wear and do and whether they are indoors or outdoors a lot, as well as what animal vectors may be doing at the time. The viruses themselves are very tough. They are not even really alive in many senses of the word. They are not much affected by the variations of temperature that we feel comfortable in. I don't mean to sound obnoxious, I think it is important that we all learn some good science about this so we can all make good choices and suggestions.
     
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  6. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    No, not all nursing homes need all of that. Some do. Many live independently. It's not some shallow or unworkable situation. That's BS. You know it. So does everyone else.
     
  7. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Well good for them. Doesn't change the facts on the ground that Florida didn't do that on March 8. Beyond that, visitor restrictions would not have kept it out in hotspots as it would be brought in by employees.
     
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  8. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Actually, yes, that is why you end up in a nursing home, the need for...nursing care, which is heavily correlated with the need for medical care, especially when those patients have Covid. Are you really arguing that nursing home patients with Covid didn't need much in the way of nursing and medical care?

    If you are so confident in your knowledge about how to run nursing homes, you should really go form a large company to do so. A lot of money in that industry, and you clearly know everything you need to know about running one...
     
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  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Why were they booted from the hospital if they were so sick? IF they were showing serious symptoms then they wouldn't be discharged. I assume most of the discharged were asymptomatic. You are talking out of both sides of your mouth. Yes, I know a little about running one. My uncle has managed one for 25 years and I worked there for 3 summers in college. But thanks for the condescending remarks.
     
  10. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    There are potential long-term effects for patients, especially at that age, which likely increased the medical care necessary, especially if symptoms returned worse since they still had the virus.

    Pretty big assumption without data.

    Well now I am convinced that you clearly know how to construct and operate emergency nursing homes and all that would go into it because you worked in a nursing home for 3 summers. So, just because I am sure you know, how does a nursing home handle medication supply chains in an emergency situation where they need to obtain considerable controlled substances? How many RNs would you need for 4,500 beds? Nursing assistants? Janitorial staff? Who operates the center? Who handles acquisition of PPE for the staff of the new nursing home? All of these are of course easy issues handled by state and local governments.

    BTW, in hotspots, there isn't a ton of evidence that the New York policy made the numbers considerably worse. For example, here in Louisiana, we did ban hospitals from sending back Covid positive patients for 30 days. And a higher proportion of our deaths were from nursing homes than New York. Massachusetts had an even higher proportion of their deaths from nursing homes despite having a different policy. So to return to my initial statement, there is little evidence that purely isolating nursing homes is a workable or effective strategy in areas that were hotspots to deal with the spread of the disease overall.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2020
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  11. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    More condescending garbage. Making up crap and carrying water for people who made terrible decisions that cost thousands of lives. Didn't waste my time finishing what you wrote. Done with you
     
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  12. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Amazingly, you probably don't see your own condescension (trying to claim partisanship when you were the first to mention partisanship, claiming that "everyone" knows my answers are BS, etc.) and arrogance (somehow thinking that you have the knowledge to setup emergency nursing facilities with simple message board solutions). Amazingly you find it condescending to think that nobody on here, including you, is actually an expert on forming new nursing home facilities or understanding the challenges in setting up emergency nursing homes in a period of a couple of days to a couple of weeks.

    I have made up nothing and can provide you links to cite every point that I made. I am happy to do so, in fact. That is the difference between what I have said and what you have said.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2020
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  13. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I agree, and the good science part is where I feel that Fauci failed miserably. Listening to him I never felt like he was trying to answer questions. He was always vague or non committal in his answers and he never tried to reign in media misinformation(he could have spent a full hour each day on that). I found Dr. Birx to be much more informative and on point. If a reporter was asking a loaded or foolish question she would often reframe the question into something that would make sense and then answer it.

    My issue with the seasonal thing was that the panic mongerers would not even entertain the thought of the virus weakening with heat. Would discuss it. Just went right to the name calling.

    Hopefully our CDC handles the information and communication better in the future.
     
  14. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Don't like warm weather? Maybe true of the common cold and the seasonal flu, apparently not the case with Covid-19.
    Brazil poised to overtake Italy as country with third-highest death toll – as it happened
    Brazil Counts Almost Twice As Many Daily Covid-19 Deaths As The U.S.

    Brazil has an equatorial climate and is warm year round.
     
  15. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Brazil has over 3X the population of Italy. 33,000 deaths in a country of over 200,000,000. Really no comparison to Italy.

    Brazil has an infection rate of half of the US. A full third of their cases have come in the past 7-8 days as they get to the peak of their winter. They have a shitty socialized medical system and about the same death rate as the US even with our inflated death count. I would say that climate may have something to do with their low infection rate.
     
  16. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    So we are back to comparing curves much later in the progression of a disease with curves from earlier in the progression of the disease as if they are the same? I would have thought we would have learned better from the Early March talking points about how this thing was barely even here...
     
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  17. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    The peak of their "winter". Being on the equator, Brazil doesn't really have a winter. It gets down into the 60s at night. They are still getting temperatures in the 80 during the day.
     
  18. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Not in Sau Paulo and lower Brazil. Take a look at a globe
     
  19. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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  20. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    This is not even debatable. New Zealand. Australia. Taiwan. Hong Kong. Greece. South Korea. You have to start early when there are few cases. Shut down. Then when case are low, test and contact trace and quarantine. Need smart leadership that understood to shut down when cases were low. The longer the delay shutting, the more cases to justify the shut down, the more spread and the longer the shut down needs to be. And, reopen when numbers were low. We just quit here. And now, national leadership has moved on because it is a loser political issue. All you have to do is look at successful places and compare them to the Us to understand what to do.
     
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