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Total quarantine or herd immunity

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by CRIMDEFgator, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    I think "selfishness" is a shallow assessment (not trying to attack, just referring to the lack of nuance). I think we have to look at things like distrust of the government and quality and consistency of information being presented to the people. Add to that clearly defined purpose and goals.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  2. gogata125

    gogata125 Junior

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  3. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Sure- our rugged individualism, and distrust of leadership, and gleeful sharing of misinformation, and unwillingness to serve others, and our lack of concern for the greater good all contribute to our apparent inability to implement strategies that have been shown to work in other countries. But those can all be lumped under selfishness.

    An amusing thought that just flitted through my head. We have many people who like to say that some cultures are better than others. From an objective perspective, given that other cultures are able to keep more of their people alive, is our culture one that can be designated as not as good as others?
     
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  4. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Tough call, what if none of the vaccines work?
    Do we stay on "lock down" forever?

    I still think the best thing to do was to keep the highest risk safe. Which BTW quite a few places did the exact opposite (see the nursing home debacle).

    We will never know what would have happened if there wasn't a lock down....its all just guess work as to what the death toll would have been if we had stayed totally open vs partial lockdown(keeping high risk for death safe) vs what was done.
     
  5. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

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  6. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Don’t hold your breath waiting on that answer from Andy.

    You have a higher probability of Durbin following up with the quote that Rosenstein couldn't find.
    User Clip: Dick Durbin | C-SPAN.org
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2020
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  7. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    I never said we should be in “total lockdown” forever. A “partial lockdown” with some combination of mask wearing and social distancing is the only sane option until the virus is no longer a threat. Basically respond locally to where any outbreaks are and act accordingly. Only where you have escalating cases and deaths do you need to go back to more crazy measures to contain the virus.
     
  8. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States

    That means that their model found implementing the measures 2 weeks earlier would result in somewhere between 84-94% less deaths, with an average of about 89% less deaths. Now you should be careful about extrapolating the number from after the model data, but it is certainly very realistic to say that the two week delay cost somewhere in that realm of lives (i.e. 80K so far).
     
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  9. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It isn't an op-ed. It is a different analysis on the same question that showed similar results. They also mention a third by a former top epidemiology official in New York. Replication.
     
  10. AndyGator

    AndyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    At least one, and that was one way too many. Are you not familiar? Are you pretending there was no impact?
     
  11. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Thanks. :emoji_thumbsup:
     
  12. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

  13. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    No one was saying shut down though. No one on either side.
    I mean if we had shut down last May then deaths might have been zero.

    Truth is, we don't know. We can always roll the clock back and the number would get smaller, but no governors were closing states at Christmas...or in January. No one was even talking about that.

    What is important from any data like this is that we learn from it going forward.
     
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  14. AndyGator

    AndyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    at least two:

    USS Kidd: Number of coronavirus cases from second warship outbreak nears 100 as Navy restricts information on pandemic - CNNPolitics

    Pointing out "percentages" is quite disingenuous, by the way. An Aircraft Carrier and a Destroyer were affected. You think the Navy was happy about this? A CO captain almost got removed from the Navy and an acting Navy Secretary was forced to resign. You and I have different ideas on what is important.
     
  15. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Sorry, I should have said it isn't "just an op-ed." It is an op-ed based in the findings of their research (they have a model showing results and utilized an op-ed in the NYT to make those results more accessible to the general public). I put considerably more weight to a study than just an op-ed.
     
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  16. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Wasn't really directing that at your post specifically...
     
  17. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Not allowing it to get into nursing home would have saved 30-40% depending where you are at, that could have been done without total disruption to the entire country.
     
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  18. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Fair point.
     
  19. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    We all know what models are good for.....

    "The estimated number of deaths falls sharply with earlier interventions, using calculations based on a model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Ranges reflect uncertainty in the model’s estimates."
     
  20. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Learning things?
     
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