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Too Hot Investment Thread

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by channingcrowderhungry, Feb 11, 2021.

  1. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Max out the 401k.
    It's all pre tax dollars and the tax savings alone is a great ROI!
     
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  2. tonto-86

    tonto-86 Sophomore

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    I've got half a bitcoin that I purchased back in April 2020. I'm paying a guy commission to watch over it and grow it for me.
     
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  3. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    That some nice returns right there.
     
  4. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    I know people who have done that. Big money guys do it all the time they leverage their assets.
     
  5. scbeerman

    scbeerman VIP Member

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    This is a topic that is very interesting to me. I have only read about 40% of the thread so I may repeat some observations.

    Like the OP, the overwhelming majority (98-99%) of my investments are done by professionals. My general philosophy is dollar cost averaging whether weekly (retirement account), or periodically, in the after tax account.

    However, for purposes of this thread, that is no fun. Due to more time and a distaste for the news, I find myself tuned into CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg more and more. I helped my son and brother with their fun accounts but I am about to start my own. I call it my "swing for the fences" fund.

    The direction I am going is industries such as electric vehicles, marijuana, clean energy, online gambling, precious metals and crypto currency. This has been confirmed by the chief investment officer of a national firm, someone whose previous job was to manage the investment portfolio of a Forbes 400 member (highly famous family) and is a current contributor on a national cable business network. He is for real but I am not comfortable revealing names. I also subscribe to a national newsletter from a guy in my hometown who gives perspectives from a trader which mainly gauges sentiment. PM me if you are interested in the newsletter which is about $750 a year.

    I am waiting on a pullback, knowing market timing generally does not work, but I will reveal some picks once the fund is started.
     
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  6. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    Awesome addition to the thread. Thanks
     
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  7. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    There have been large gains in Electric Vehicles and marijuana stocks recently. QuantumScape, which makes EV batteries shot up 26% today after it announced it had a technological breakthrough. I know a few posters here have mentioned they have invested in it.

    I hadn't thought about the online gambling stuff. But it makes sense. Its getting rolled out slowly as states approve it, and I hear radio ads for it all the time. I'll have to do some research.
     
  8. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    so does he water it and take it our for walks?
     
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  9. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    While I don't want to rain on anybodys parade, while I don't exactly follow Boglehead principles to the letter, I do subscribe to those principles. They are

    - you can't on average beat the market. If you do, it is likely luck. While you can argue whether the market is "efficient" or not, depending on how you define efficient, you really don't have any better information than anybody else. On Wall Street they have the best and brightest minds, Harvard and MIT physics whizes doing Quant models (which is a horrible waste of talent, but that's another story). If you think you can beat them you will likely be disappointed.

    - Being in only a few stocks gives you much less diversification impact than an index mutual fund or ETF.

    - there are going to be many stories, some seen here, of picked stocks doing great. There are just as many stories, typically not shared, of stocks that don't.

    - statistically gains in the markets are from a small percent of stocks. Most stocks underperform the index, and many lose money or go to zero. Thus odds are most individuals who own individual stocks probably underperform the market.

    Stock market gains come from few top performers

    - while advisors can add value, they come at a cost. They often charge commissions or an AUM, and are more likely to invest in active funds or individual stocks. There is zero evidence that on average they have superior returns vs the market. A 2% expense ratio would cost you roughly 2/3 of your portfolio.value over 50 years.

    - most investors would be better off in index fund based target date funds

    - index funds consistently beat actively managed funds. In any year they almost always beat a lot more than half. Over ten-twenty years they beat around 90%

    - this is intuitive because index fund follow the market. Their returns follow the average of all active participants. Better than 50, worse than 50. But active traders have expenses. Commissions, loads, fund expenses etc. Index funds have almost none of those. Thus index funds outperform.

    Best things to do are
    - save as much as you can
    - contribute to 401ks, IRAS and Roths and HSAs as much as possible.
    - figure out an asset allocation you can stick with. Targrt date funds do this for you.
    - use index funds and/or target date index funds
    - stick with it. Don't buy and sell based on how you feel about the market. Most people who do this buy high and sell low.

    Advisors are fine, but you don't need an advisor to do that. But you do have to have the ability to stick with it. Most don't.
     
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  10. tonto-86

    tonto-86 Sophomore

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    lol. That's awesome.

    No, he essentially trades it and grows it without me having to invest any further capital.
     
  11. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    So managing the value of the bitcoin rather than the actual bitcoin.
     
  12. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Thx. I'll add some of this to my process. I'm a fan of penny stocks - keep a spreadsheet that is filled with more "what to watch" than what I own. I look for patterns in what I initially think is good and how it plays out. Copious notes. Try to see where there's intuition and where there isn't...
     
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  13. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    How is he doing at it? Half of the battle is outpacing fees.
     
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  14. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    For those a little leery of getting into crypto directly, Coinbase will be having an IPO some point soon. Coinbase is who helped facilitate Tesla's 1.5 billion bitcoin purchase and will be a big player going forward, imo. Probably going to be a very high IPO, however.
     
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  15. tonto-86

    tonto-86 Sophomore

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    Not bad I suppose but definitely better than I would. He hasn't lost any ground but its slow moving. we went from .47 of a bitcoin to .53 and that was back in December. He should be sending me a report in the next couple of weeks.
     
  16. tonto-86

    tonto-86 Sophomore

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    basically yeah.
     
  17. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    So I was curious if there was a minimum bitcoin purchase on the app I use. I guess there isn't. I just spent 85 cents on a piece of bitcoin. Literally 85 US cents. .00001648 BTC. Lol
     
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  18. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Which app?

    I've considered buy for years but never looked into how to do it.
     
  19. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    I've done that with some small biotech (under $3) watch the charts they often cycle through 20-50%(or more) swings with some rhythm. Just can't be greedy get your gain and get out.

    A few I've done well with over the years.
    BDSI
    AGEN
    VGTN
     
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  20. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    RobinHood. I know we're all supposed to hate it and have deleted it after the Gamestop, but it's really easy to use and I've got positions there I don't want to close out.

    @RIP probably has a better suggestion
     
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