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Thursday job report: 6.6 million job losses VS. 5 million expected

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Believe what you want.
     
  2. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It isn't a belief. It is a fact. They explicitly stated that the model didn't include social distancing. Unless you are accusing them of lying, it is factual. It is an observation that is falsifiable.

    From the paper:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    "Unmitigated epidemic." Fact proven. Argument over.
     
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  3. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    The worst case always was hospitals would be overrun period. It didn't matter if schools, churches, restaurants, Disney, tourism, health spas, barber shops, beauty salons, etc... remained open or not otherwise there would never have been such a scramble to get the resources that were put in place in the major metropolitan areas. To date this has not been the case and to assume it's because we shut down all of these things is the reason why it didn't happen is ludicrous. The virus had already spread to more people than anyone imagined prior to this.

    Yes we saw it in Italy. We also saw the age issues among the other factors as well in Italy. If we can believe what we know so far the average age of someone dying of the virus in the US is 81 years of age as of March 14. What the average is now I don't know but I do know that the CDC and FDA state emphatically that people over 65 as well as those respiratory issues are most at risk.

    As for the millions I believe we can rule that out so arguing millions at this point is as a basis for continuing down this path is totally unreasonable and is simply used as a fear mongering tactic.

    My argument is that it is time to remove such extreme conditions given what we know now.
     
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  4. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That is an absurd opinion. Some of the most sever outbreaks around the world have been traced back to churches. In America, we had the benefit of seeing stuff like this unfold in other countries first, so we dealt with it better. If schools, churches, restaurants, tourism had remained opened, we'd be where Italy was, maybe worse.

    You are again saying the measures are too extreme, but not denying they are making a difference.
     
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  5. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Yes the virus had already like wild fire and many do not seem to understand that piece of it just yet. 8.5 million people in NYC alone. Shutting all of those institutions down yet releasing the public to go to the pharmacy, go to the grocery store, go to the gas station while keeping a work force in place that are carriers of the virus does not stop the spread nor mitigate it to the point concerning the numbers we currently see. Everyone is susceptible to work force that is completely untested the minute you went out into the public arena to perform the basics of everyday life. While you were doing that no one was mandated to wear masks, 6 foot of social distancing was in place and hardly adhered to in these businesses. People milling around and shopping to their hearts content no cashier barriers in place. People still going to beaches and parks, people leaving the area all together and going somewhere else etc....

    The extremes came much later than we give them credit for.
     
  6. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Grocery stores probably are one of the most dangerous places allowed to stay open, but we have to, because food is a basic essential.

    But the Thing is, even if you are within 6 feet of someone as you pass at a grocery store, it is unlikely to transfer unless they cough in your face. It’s the touching of the same objects that someone sick touched with dirty hands, and then touching your face, that spreads it.

    So while stores are most definitely a place to spread it (carts, CC keypads, items that were put back, etc.) it can be mitigated by washing your Hands afterwards, not touching your face, and wiping down carts. Shopping is the most exposure to transmission that most people staying home will get. And even at that, using instacart and shipt, or preordered carry out service to your car, will cut that risk even further. Lots of people are doing that instead of going inside. It’s one of the many reasons why we are not hitting the “worst case” models even while people finding safe ways to get groceries.

    Now, schools on the other hand, 6 or 7 different kids sitting at the same desks everyday, outside of all the other stuff that goes on, is a recipe for disaster.

    Think of how many people one sick waiter or chef could infect.

    Or how many times people share the same seat at Disney.... or movie theaters....

    And again, and I’ve mentioned this before, you think people are staying home because Government is making them. I went to a popular restaurant on the Thursday before the Friday that the gov ordered restaurants to close, and it was dead. And that was back when there were just a few dozen known cases in Florida IIRC. There is a “fun center” not far from here that stayed open until the governors state wide order.... it was completely dead for weeks. One car in the parking lot type dead and that was probably the guy working there.

    Guess what, if Trump says “everything is fine” in a few weeks, “go back to normal”, it ain’t happening. People are too smart to let the government make their life and death decisions for them. Which is exactly why the social distancing measures are working and we are not seeing the worst case numbers.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2020
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  7. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Do you mean the one that was unanimously approved by both Republicans and Democrats?
     
  8. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I agree with this, social distancing, not shaking hands, and increases in the number of times everyone washes their hands is here to stay.
     
  9. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Exactly. Now the Republicans like Socialism, too! It's not just democrats anymore. Glad you agree!
     
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  10. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Absolutely food is a necessity. Yet we are in a position now where people are lining up for miles at food banks. The dairy industry is dumping milk and slaughter houses are producing less, transportation and supply lines are constrained and people are out of work wondering if and when their next payday will come. How long do you think this can last? Even food banks will eventually run dry if we continue down this path.

    You do understand the issue with spreading the virus as it took place well before such extremes were put in place. Protocols of social distancing and hygiene aside the evidence is anecdotal at best because the depth and breath of spread cannot be validated or verified. People do these things instinctively - oh you're sick stay away from me. Oh you're sick go home get out of here.

    You also understand the issues we are facing with an idle work force. I assume you also understand that the protocols put into place is still no guarantee you will not get infected. The onus is on you and everyone else you encounter to carry out the recommended / mandated protocols. Given your description of how people were reacting well before the mandates proves my point. The Media, Federal, State, local governments and agencies scared the bejeezus out of people without considering for one moment the consequences that would certainly follow. Have NYC hospitals overflowed? Have we run out of respirators? Is our medical community so heavily taxed people are dying in the street? To say the protocols put in place solved the issues is inane from my point of view. Yet this is what has been presented to the public.

    At this point it doesn't matter what President Trump or our State, and local governments say and nothing is going back to normal until a vaccination is approved and distributed. We as a society better figure out how we intend to get ourselves back into a productive mode and live with it until a vaccination is available because we as a society cannot live at home forever waiting on a government and agencies to provide the very basic of needs shelter, food and clothing.

    My point is and has always been it is only getting worse and the longer we remain in this state of panic the worse it will get. The majority of people do not have the financial where with all to take an extended vacation. Nor do the rich or the our governments have the means to provide for us all. NETFLIX at the moment is cheap but compare that to the amount money people shell out for Internet Access and phone service. If this continues the way we are living now I see a lot of canceled subscriptions in the near future. The warning signs are all around us and we act as if we are helpless cowering in our homes.

    News Media Outlets Have Been Ravaged by the Pandemic
     
  11. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    You’re making zero ground demonstrating that the level of actions the government is taking isnt necessary to save untold numbers of lives. You are simply stating the obvious financial trade offs for saving the lives of people is staggering. Problem is there is no in between so you’re really just yelling at clouds.

    Isolation through May is probably the best plan with June forward moving to serious isolation of the at risk population and again waves of isolation of areas that break out again until immunization. Those are my thoughts but I’m not President. Instead we’ll just have to be cured by politicized tweets.
     
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  12. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Let me be clear I am not arguing the point of was it right to do what we did at the onset. I am arguing the point of what we should be doing now. So to your point is there financial damage to everyone and our economy? Absolutely. Do we need to continue down a path of financial ruin at this point? Absolutely not.

    To that end I disagree. We have now implemented every protocol our elected officials have ask and mandated only to find out that everything that was projected to date has not come to fruition. Up to this point what we assumed would happen as not. What we prepared in advance for was not needed. What people do not seem to grasp at this point is we have now seen what the repercussions of this virus are as evidenced in NYC. Yet we believe we need to continue down the very path we are on. What we now know about the virus, how it is transmitted, who is at risk and what the symptoms are.

    Today I receive in the mail a single page folded poster style flyer printed on paper the thickness of a business card (11" x 17") from our county health department detailing the symptoms and what to do if you believe you have have the virus.

    I quote
    SYPMTOMS can include FEVER (100.4°F/38°C or higher), COUGH or TROUBLE BREATHING.
    Illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death. Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure.
    Not everyone needs to be tested for COVID-19. Most people will have mild illness and be able to recover at home.*
    The flyer goes on to explain what to do if you have symptoms and what to to do if you had close contact with someone who is sick. Followed by the foot note of that little asterisk

    Again I quote
    *Older adults and people of any age with serious underlying medical conditions may be at higher risk for more serious complications from COVID-19. Seek care earlier.

    What you see in bold and in italics is exactly how this flyer is printed.

    Three very salient facts show up in this flyer.
    1. NOT EVERYONE NEEDS TO BE TESTED - yet we are chasing numbers as being gospel without understanding the breath and depth of the virus
    2. Most people will have mild illness and be able to recover at home - in other words stay home until you have to go to the hospital otherwise grin and bear it
    3. Older adults and people with SERIOUS underlying medical conditions may be at higher risk. - Given the number of deaths today and the underlying conditions we already know this to be factual. They didn't bother to bold that they put in a foot note in italic font same size as the rest of the fonts in the flyer.
     
  13. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    "To that end I disagree. We have now implemented every protocol our elected officials have ask and mandated only to find out that everything that was projected to date has not come to fruition. Up to this point what we assumed would happen as not. "

    Have you considered the possibility that the worst didn't happen because we listened to experts like Fauci and took extreme actions to avoid the worst?

    I think I'm going to continue to listen to Fauci, because as you pointed out here, he's doing a great job.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2020
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  14. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    How do you propose that we better understand the breadth and depth of the virus if not through testing?
     
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  15. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    The truth is you're not going to get that information and we will most likely never get that information even with antibody testing. It was unreasonable to expect 320+ million would be tested in the first place. Our government and medical institutions knows this as well as the population at large.

    The huge hole in any model we develop or rely on for projections and analysis is the data being used. Such models can produce rate of infection (how quickly it spreads) and death versus survival based on the known numbers at a point in time. Telling people to stay home, don't get tested and grin and bear it does not get us to the point where we can make any determination what so ever as to the depth of infection versus lethal consequence of the virus. In any model the question becomes what should be the base number of events before we even begin to formulate any predictions at all. What we do know is the virus had already taken hold well before we put any protocols in place and given the rate of infection to assume such protocols have had the effect to which they are attributed is dubious to say the least because we do not have the data to make any valid analysis concerning the effectiveness of the protocols.

    The rate of infection is what prompted the responses by out medical community and government institutions. NYC hospitals do not have the capacity to service a pandemic outbreak and the truth is no one has that capacity. Limitations on the number of beds and equipment available will always be an issue when outbreak spreads as rapidly as this virus has. No one can say what would be optimal to serve the public at large when you're talking 8.5 million people in NYC. Do I need a million doctors and a million beds? Obviously not. Some consider this a failure while I consider it a testament to the medical advancements and technologies that we have in place.

    Does that mean the protocols should not have been put in place at the onset? Absolutely not because the protocols were aimed at keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed. Given what we know about this virus the intent was never to to stop the spread of the virus but to mitigate the spread of the virus to allow our medical institutions to handle the influx of patients that not materialized.

    As I have stated in earlier posts what we see happening on the ground doesn't reflect what the models have predicted. The models predicted a doom and gloom scenario portraying numbers that were not realistic in any sense of the word. Why is that? The model only concentrated on reported infection versus reported death and surmises what would occur if the rates hold true with a fudge factor producing and upper and lower limit.

    Given what we have seen up to this point with NYC being ground zero for determining the burdens placed on health institutions it's time to start looking at this from a different point of view instead of spreading doom and gloom to the population at large. That now is the challenge because the public, the media and our government institutions focused on number of deaths and hammered those points home on a minute by minute basis.
     
  16. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    I hate being locked up and knowing my business is creeping towards failure too but you’d need to be intentionally lying to yourself if you can’t see that without these steps we’d have dozens (hundreds?) of times the infected and deaths.
     
  17. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Exactly, which is why we need as much testing as possible.
     
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  18. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    I hope this is wrong even though it seems right to me...

    Stimulus Will Not Prevent The Next Leg Down In U.S. Stocks
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337130-stimulus-will-not-prevent-next-leg-down-in-u-s-stocks

    Summary
    • Fed and Treasury stimulus will not be able to prevent massive losses of income, production and wealth in the economy.
    • Despite stimulus, vast numbers of businesses in high employment industries will disappear and/or take many years to recover.
    • No V-Shaped recovery. It will take years for former levels of production to be reestablished in many industries. It will take nearly a decade for a return to full employment.
    • There's no free lunch. Massive increases in public and private debt burdens will impose enormous impediments on future growth.
     
  19. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]

    Same as it ever was.
     
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  20. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Agree. I've been saying this for weeks. No way the market has already baked in the current reality. Unfortunately, there so much pain ahead, and the market will show that. Mid to low teens are still possible IMO.

    Imagine when/if we head back to life next month and see cases and deaths spike back to current levels in a week?