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Thursday job report: 6.6 million job losses VS. 5 million expected

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That's because we are all staying home and reducing the spread greatly. The question was what happens when we go back to work and the starting point for the next outbreak is potentially 1000s of undiagnosed cases spread across the entire country?
     
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  2. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    We'll have to get back to work to find that out. I cannot predict the future anymore than anyone else. Yet the mantra that is quickly taking hold is I'm not going back to work until there is a vaccination. That my friend is not going happen until next year if it does at all.
     
  3. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Sorry I should have addressed this in the previous post as well. What we know about this virus is it is highly contagious and spreads very rapidly and it does not matter whether we lock our selves in our homes or not. Yes hygiene and social distancing are helping but you have to understand every time you go to the grocery store that trucker, construction worker, cashier, gas station attendant, civil servant, electrician, plumber, mechanic, doctor, nurse, medical assistant, bus driver, cab driver, etc... that are working their butts off right now is standing 6 foot away from you. They could well be infected already and asymptomatic and you will take it home with you and spread it throughout the house.
     
  4. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    Problem is, our society cannot function properly adhering to the social distancing mandates being beat into our heads 10,000 times a day. I'd say we're already toast at this point.
     
  5. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    People adapt. I refuse to believe we are toast but if this continues for months on end yes we will be toast.
     
  6. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    I believe the fear that has been instilled is too powerful, just look at the folks on here. We've lost our way, doubtful to ever return.
     
  7. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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  8. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    That's Philadelphia and our politicians gone mad. It is not as if such incidents are happening all over the U.S. We haven't gotten to that point yet and I hope we do not. If this continues for months on end do you think it will be any different when our politicians give the all clear? What do you think will happen when a population revolts? Hunger is a powerful motivator.
     
  9. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    I hope you're correct that people will stand up and say enough already. But as you said in an earlier post, with the supposed end to our lockdown about two weeks away, the 'we can't go back to work until there's a vaccine' and 'we're never going back to the way it was' propaganda machine is about to ramp up big time. Fauci and birx can drag this shit out a month at a time forever.
     
  10. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't think that's true. The models predicted a 70% of the population spread if we "did nothing" and right now was are at less than 0.2% in diagnosed cases and they are saying this might be the peak. I'm quite sure the social distancing is helping. You just need to look at what is known to have happened at churches, with it spreading like wildfire through a congregation. That's certainly comparable to what would have happened at schools if they had remained open. Spread by kids, and then to the parents ....
     
  11. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Yes Dr Fauci and Dr Birx can certainly do that if they so choose. The question is when will they recognize that they are doing more harm to the public than good. When they realize their actions are the cause of lowering the public's immunity systems due to lack of proper diet, exercise and social interaction they may well come to the conclusion that their actions are a death knell that is far worse than treating the afflicted. The public will not put up with the fact that while they eat steak and potatoes and enjoy their checks on a regular basis we scrounge for food.

    The other point I will make is neither Dr. Fauci or Dr Birx are elected officials and they do not have the legal authority to enforce what they want. Truth be told even our elected officials are limited in that capacity. Emergencies are one thing declaring an emergency for extended periods of time months on end is a different matter all together.
     
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  12. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    So are you trying to revive "the cure can't be worse than the disease"? I thought republicans dropped that weeks ago.

    How about this one. "No one is safe until everyone is safe".
     
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  13. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    I call BS the models have been wrong from the get go because they didn't have enough data to come to a justifiable conclusion and these models are being adjusted on a daily basis. If the model finds 2 cases and 1 dies that's a 50% mortality rate.

    You may say social distancing wasn't factored in the models at the start and on that point I disagree as well otherwise the model would not have had such a disparity in the high and low end of predictions. As more testing is done we are finding out more people are infected but the testing is limited to those that have a need for the test and exhibit symptoms. We don't know how much of the population is already infected or have had it and recovered from it on their own. We also know testing everyone is not possible as those who are not infected may be infected tomorrow or the next day.

    Testing everyone would discover those that are asymptomatic and identify how many more of us might get infected if we are not infected at the time. To do this we know it has to be snapshot and everyone has to be tested at the same point in time. This is the only way to get reliable numbers that have significant meaning and we all know this is not possible.
     
  14. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    We are not talking about mortality rate, which I agree is probably too high due to the undiagnosed cases. But even if the real number of total cases (diagnosed and undiagnosed) are 10X the diagnosed cases, that still just a 1.5% spread at this point.

    And yes, the model that predicted the 70% didn't account for social distancing because it was the CDC's "worst case" model. The model in which we "did nothing", as I said earlier.

    Now, you are arguing that we should just go back to normal? Reopen everything? That's basically like saying you want to test out the CDC's "do nothing" model and see if they got it right. No thanks.
     
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  15. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    I'll not quibble the point that no one is safe until everyone is safe. That's a given and something we all live with on a daily basis virus or not. The point I am making is continuing down this path of societal disruption no one is safe with exception of those that have had the virus and recovered or those that are asymptomatic. The societal disruption will cause more damage than the virus and in my opinion it has caused significant damage already. Damage that we cannot sustain while we all wait for a vaccine.

    Last but not least my assessment and opinion is not coming from a political standpoint. None of this has anything to do with political affiliation, Democrat, Republican, Independent, Communist, Liberal, Socialist etc.... The sooner people get that through their heads the better off we will all be.
     
  16. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Again I'm not believing didn't take into account mitigating measures such as social distancing, wearing a mask and sheltering in home. The model took into account a plethora of information and still got it absolutely wrong with such a huge swing. Everyone saw millions when it fact it couldn't have been farther from the truth than people imagined.

    Now you're putting words in my mouth. I didn't say the CDC or FDA should do nothing. These agencies are the brain trust of developing a vaccine that work should not stop. As for going back to work we will have to go back to work much sooner than you can imagine.
     
  17. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    Eh, he's got a point, keep it all shut down till next year. It's really not that big of a big deal. :rolleyes:
    Millions flooding foodbanks
     
  18. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It isnt an opinion that the Imperial College model didnt account for social distancing. They explicitly stated it as a fact. It had a wide error rate because all projection models have pretty substantial error rates, especially when they are based on only a couple of curves. You dont get to have your own set of facts to help you deal with the real world.
     
  19. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm not even sure what you are arguing at this point? The worst case (aka "do nothing") model assumed the US would just go about business as usual -- schools, churches, restaurants, Disney, tourism would all be open. The result was hospitals would be overrun and wouldn't have enough doctors, rooms, or equipment to treat but a fraction of the people who needed it. We saw it in Italy where doctors had to prioritize and basically decide who lived and who died. That's were the "millions dead" came from. It was meant to be a wake up call. Since then, we've done plenty to avoid the worst of the "do nothing" model.

    I mean, on one hand you are arguing that the what we doing is too extreme ...
    and on the other hand you are not giving credit to the extreme measured for making a big difference?
     
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  20. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe there are other ways to deal with it rather than sending people back to high risk jobs ... Trump and Republicans seem to be highly open to socialism judging by the last bill he signed.