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Thursday job report: 6.6 million job losses VS. 5 million expected

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I just don't see how things go back to normal any time soon.

    Think about it this way. When the virus exploded in China we were in a sort of perfect social distancing stance. It was over there and we were over here, separated by an ocean. We didn't have a single infection in the entire country. Until we did. That was January 15 -- a single infection.

    Now 10 weeks later we have 450,000 infections and our people are dying at a clip of 2,000 per day. And that's despite our nationwide response that started in earnest a month ago.

    So what is the end game here? We social distance until infections go down, and then what? We go back to work? Okay. So it took 10 weeks for the numbers to go from 1 to 450k; how long is it going to take to spike right back up if we start with 10, 15, 50k infected?

    It's essentially like a "do-over," but we start the game at a huge disadvantage, and with people already tired of social distancing.

    So what is the answer? Herd immunity won't work unless we've massively underestimated the number of asymptomatic infections (which doesn't seem likely). We're not going to have a vaccine until 2021 at the earliest, so that's out. Antiviral treatments aren't effective.

    Do we just hope that the virus just dies out on its own?
     
  2. CharlestonGator

    CharlestonGator Premium Member

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    Agreed. Almost exactly the way I'm seeing it. Would be shocked if we don't get another significant dip...or several.
     
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  3. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Investors have known the jobless claims number today was going to be bad for a while now. It takes large hedge funds literally a nanosecond to adjust their portfolios accordingly. As you can see, the market is up this morning on a worse-than-expected number. The unprecedented QE, along with it looking more and more like the economy will re-open in early May, is what the market is watching. And how many of these jobless claims will call their workers back if we open back up in May? I would wager a decent chunk of them will.
     
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  4. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    From a political standpoint, President Trump has played this beautifully. It's becoming apparent now that by the time the election rolls around in November, stocks will be near all-time highs again and businesses will be hiring speedily up until then. He got his zero Fed funds rate, with an insane amount of QE and he passed a $2+ trillion stimulus that sends all working families a very nice check. I suspect also if the current Covid-19 projections hold, it'll be seen that he managed the crisis without letting it become a doomsday scenario everybody was talking about. He's weathering this storm about as well as you could, from a re-election standpoint. May even get a $2 trillion infrastructure stimulus through as well which will just add to the gains.
     
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  5. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 GC Hall of Fame

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    This could be revised too.
     
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  6. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    I think that is an unreasonable expectation. There is no way large companies will be bringing back everyone off furlough. Let’s assume unemployment peaks at only 20%. I suspect 75% (of the 20%) will eventually come back to viable companies due to a 25% downsizing this year. Plus let’s say only 5% of affected companies just totally go out of business...That’s still a 13% unemployment rate. Maybe a little lower if small business utilize the socialism handouts (lol) to keep more employed.
     
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  7. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Well, I didn't say they'd bring back "everyone". I said they'll hire some back, a decent chunk of them, which more closely matches what you went on to predict. But again, the reason the market is going up is due to the Covid-19 flattening curve, the Fed dropping billions into the market daily and as we're discussing, many of those jobless claims going back to their jobs. The market sees all this clear as day.
     
  8. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    I’m more convincing myself. Lol. I think I’m right and it will crater. I’ve only been wrong a few thousand times.
     
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  10. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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  11. 108

    108 Premium Member

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    Anyone still think it's a good idea that health insurance is tied to your employer?
     
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  12. PacificBlueGator

    PacificBlueGator Junior

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    Don't worry - Trump said he would have something so much better than the ACA
     
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  13. orangeblue_coop

    orangeblue_coop GC Hall of Fame

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    And he will. Right after the border wall is completed and the number of coronavirus cases goes from 15 to 0.
     
  14. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Well you've proven repeatedly that you are terrible at predicting the future. And Trump has not played this beautifully, politically or otherwise. He's done nothing but provide Dems with sound bites for their commercials.
     
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  15. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    You guys are funny thinking it's going to make two shits who the potus will be after november. This is fauci's take on things, he just hasn't had the balls to say it in so many words yet.

     
  16. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Will that be before or after infrastructure week?
     
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  17. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    it will make a difference in how it’s handled. The constant lying from Trump, people in his admin claiming they know more than Fauci, and playing political games with supplies and ventilators will stop, at least. It will be better for the people when we can count on accurate information from the Executive branch.
     
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  18. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    NYT business front yesterday.

    upload_2020-4-11_9-44-45.png
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  19. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Legend

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    Go back to work as initially this was about overwhelming the health care system with people needing medical assistance. Given what we are seeing in the areas of highest infections everyone who has needed medical assistance has gotten it. No over flowing hospitals, no shortages of ventilators, no shortages of health care professionals etc...
     
  20. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    What's going to be interesting to see is how the public will react when fauci and birx proclaim, sorry plebs, another month in lockdown!