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Thursday job report: 6.6 million job losses VS. 5 million expected

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I'm getting sick and tired of so much winning. Gentlemen, place your bets accordingly.
     
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  3. orangeblue_coop

    orangeblue_coop GC Hall of Fame

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    Rough times are ahead. This too shall pass.
     
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  4. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    I keep waiting for the stock market to really react to these job loses. It has to happen, right? The losses in reaction seem like blips more than anything.
     
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  5. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Market may have already priced in the dip. Covid-19 projections continue to improve. It looks as though most of the country will be back to work by May 15th, if those projections are correct. Add to that a zero Fed funds rate and an unlimited cap on quantitative easing. There are analysts saying the S&P will set new record highs by the end of this year. This is why the stock market boom during the Obama years wasn't really that impressive. When the Fed prints trillions and dumps it into the market, it's gonna go up. That's the whole point. Same thing is happening here.
     
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  6. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    I'm staying away from it right now. It doesn't seem to be acting rationally.
     
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  7. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    I don’t see how that’s possible that it’s priced in. We are basically priced at Nov 2017 levels where future profit outlook was good. Future proof outlook is bleak right now, possibly for years. Even Apple reducing forecasts. Apple.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  8. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

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    This will sound ridiculous, but 5 million sounds good to me. I don’t in any way mean to diminish what any of you impacted are feeling. I’m on one week a month furlough for Q2. My bit of ouch is mild compared to many.

    I feared this week’s losses would be higher. Hopefully it slows dramatically from here and we can start getting folks back to work soon.
     
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  9. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    With the PPP loan program you have to keep people employed or you forfeit the loan forgiveness. That's probably why the numbers aren't as bad.
     
  10. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

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    I just saw a blurb on the morning news suggesting 7 million. Either number is going to hurt. Hoping that most of what we passed helps people. I know a lot of folks are going through really tough times.
     
  11. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    5 million would be a good number considering all of the panic on the part of local governments. I’m betting it’s more than 5M
     
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  12. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    By panic, do you mean believing in science?
     
  13. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I think you know what I mean
     
  14. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Dow should jump 2%. :emoji_scream:
     
  15. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    Got some bad news for y'all. I'm in the healthcare field and will probably continue on but this whole going back to work thing isn't happening. All you have to do is listen to what fauci and brix are saying in their daily briefings. They're running the shitshow, not trump, not congress.
     
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  16. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    6,610,000 new claims
     
  17. Trickster

    Trickster Premium Member

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  18. Trickster

    Trickster Premium Member

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    Beat me to it!
     
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  19. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Last week's number was revised up to 6.9 million so this is actually a decline.
     
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  20. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

    Apr 3, 2007
    Atlanta
    How many members of the work force are there in the US-160M?

    4% unemployment before this, so 6.4M.

    So.......Another 17M last 3 weeks= additional 10.7%, so just under 15% current unemployment assuming no one left work force.

    Fed said could go to 30%-hasn’t yet.
    CDC said 100-200k might die, not near that yet.
    $2T in stimulus passed, more on the way (likely another $2T before it’s done)

    That’s why the Dow bottomed out around 19 for now. Expectations vs reality. But I expect another drop if stay in place outlasts stimulus (a big drop then) or if re-entry to normal is slower and longer than the market expects ( a smaller but still significant correction from this would occur, IMHO). Still too early to tell, and I believe the market hasn’t priced in either scenario just yet.

    Edit-for those who like math, $2T in stimulus is approximately 10% of our GDP (or about 5 weeks of total GDP), so assuming GDP is running at 75% of normal the past month, that amount covers the full economy for 1.5- 2 months.
     
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