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The Power – and the Risk – of the Transfer Portal (Will Miles on R&R)

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by gatorjjh, Feb 10, 2020.

  1. gatorjjh

    gatorjjh A Gator with a Glass half full attitude Moderator VIP Member

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    College Football, Florida Gators, Recruiting
    The Power – and the Risk – of the Transfer Portal
    National signing day could have gone better for the Gators.
    Safety Avantae Williams (44th nationally) decided to commit to Miami rather than Florida. As expected, neither Jahmyr Gibbs (75th) or Sedrick Van Pran (59th) flipped from Georgia Tech or Georgia. That meant that the Gators – who came into signing day as the eighth-ranked team – left it with the same ranking after failing to land another top-100 recruit.

    That doesn’t mean it was all a loss for Florida. The Gators did secure the commitment from defensive end Princely Umanmielen (241st nationally) and received signed letters of intent from Xzavier Henderson (66th).

    Still, it felt a bit anticlimactic for the Gators to miss on Williams while Georgia signed Broderick Jones (11), Van Pran (59), Daijun Edwards (279), Daran Branch (671), Ladd McConkey (1158), and Cameron Kinnie (1626).

    Yet, this class still sets the Gators up pretty well into the future, especially when you factor in transfers. So let’s take a closer look at how Florida is using the transfer portal, and the potential risks and rewards associated with that tactic.

    The Rewards
    The Power – and the Risk – of the Transfer Portal - Read and Reaction
     
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  2. enviroGator

    enviroGator Premium Member

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    So far the portal has been an advantage to Florida and a disadvantage to UGA.

    UGA keeps selling kids on early playing time and then they get there and realize they have been lied to. Depth charts used to scare kids away, but for some reason kids (especially QBs) kept signing up thinking they were going to be the man from day 1.

    Somehow Bama has avoided the problem for the most part, but you can't expect top kids to sit and wait there turn.
     
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  3. GatorSean

    GatorSean GC Hall of Fame

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    The portal has the added advantage of allowing coaches to evaluate how players look going up against other P5 competition. There is much less risk of a 'bust' because the coaches can see exactly what they are getting.
     
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  4. Nicho

    Nicho GC Hall of Fame

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    True in cases like Greenard and Van Jefferson. Doesn't quite hold for Lingard and Shorter.
     
  5. bigkid12

    bigkid12 All American

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    The portal has been very good to UF so far.
     
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  6. GatorSean

    GatorSean GC Hall of Fame

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    Why not? There is tape on both of them playing against P5 teams. No such tape exists for high school recruits.

    Lingard has 17 carries for 136 yards and 2 TDs in college
    Shorter has 15 catches for 157 yards in college
     
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  7. willmilessec

    willmilessec VIP Member

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    Biggest thing is that it is a high variance strategy, not because the transfers aren't good, but because they are. Initial counters are valuable. If you use one in 2020 for Lingard (for example) and he leaves after 1 year for the pros, you can't use that IC to count back an early enrollee to 2020 from the 2021 class. So basically you have to use an IC for the transfer and then another a year later to replace him. That's two ICs in two years to fill one roster spot. It's going to be really hard to do that in perpetuity and maintain quality depth.
     
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  8. ajoseph

    ajoseph Premium Member

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    But don’t you think that is something the League will address? The portal is it going away, and it seems to me that the IC issues that are collateral damage can easily be fixed. (All we need is for Saban to discover the problem and the fix will be imminent)
     
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  9. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Appreciate the insight into the ups and downs of taking advantage of the transfer portal. One more reason that the upcoming season needs to be The Year of the Gator. If it is, the wave of high school recruiting uptick that inevitably follows such a season will likely keep the momentum going through the potential troughs which you allude to that are, to some degree, the payback for portal utilization. At least that's my theory and I'm sticking to it ...
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2020
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  10. DoctorGator

    DoctorGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That's a great article. Very though-provoking. We need to make hay in 2020!
     
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  11. kryptonite

    kryptonite GC Hall of Fame

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    Thanks for the article. I do believe also that IC are very important. However, I believe that the problems you foresee have not shown to be present yet. Mullen has been using the portal for immediate needs, not depth, i.e. you are a starter or game-changer, or we do not take you (exception being Jordan Pouncey, but I see Ethan Pouncey being a star here, so I would accept that). Also, we have not seen a portal player bolt after a year yet, and I am sure that is because of the vetting Mullen did when offering. Also, if that happened, that is no different than losing a roster space from a high schooler who did not pan out. I expec there is a higher miss rate on high schoolers than portal transfers, who have actually played in P5 conferences.

    Mullen has been very good at getting players to buy into his system, and that shows in the attrition. Although he lost some incoming recruits last year, up to half of them are likely to be at UF in '21 (very likely Black and Hammond, and less so Wilson). We see very few cases from his first recruiting classes where players bolted because they thought they would not play: even lower rated guys like Brunson, Miller, and Houston that predate Mullen decided to show what they could do. This helps to build the depth that Mullen has not had to use the portal for.

    I disagree that normal attrition is why Mullen has had to use the portal. WR is where Mullen had to use IC on the portal and that was due to pre-Mullen roster imbalance and lack of talent at a position that needed immediate attention not 2 years of development. That same problem as to the OL has not been resolved yet, and I expect we will have one more portal take at OL. Then we will still have 26 counters for next year. It may be difficult to fit them onto the roster without some medical hardships or unexpected transfers, but I would expect us to have a class next year between 20-26, keeping the incoming depth from high school recruits to be just fine.

    I believe that the portal is just another part of recruiting that needs to be used wisely, and I don't think we have tipped the scale yet, where we are risking future depth for immediate concerns. With how cut throat recruiting is now, I don't think we can afford to leave a hole in our roster that would affect wins now as we need to keep UF looking like an elite destination school.
     
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  12. Nicho

    Nicho GC Hall of Fame

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    Insufficient to draw any real conclusions, IMO.
     
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  13. GatorSean

    GatorSean GC Hall of Fame

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    Keep in mind those are just the stats they accumulated, not the number of plays they were actually in for. I'm sure there is tape on how both players blocked, or the coaches could look and see if they ever took plays off if they weren't the target, for example. Heck, Grimes only had 3 catches at osu before coming here.

    In any case my point is there are more data points for the coaches to evaluate for these transfers than there are for high school recruits, and that makes the chances of a bust less likely.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2020
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  14. gatorpower

    gatorpower GC Hall of Fame

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    Agree with both these players. The common denominator with both is that they're both young players.

    The new portal rules are going to eventually offset the transfer prejudice. There were a couple "old" rules of thumb: 1) players buried in the depth chart transferred , and 2) players who were kicked off their team transferred. The year of ineligibility created the prejudice. You had to be really desperate to want to take the year off football to go to a new team.

    Well, grad transfers changed that about 10 years ago. But then, it was only grad transfers. The system is now giving way more access than it used to, giving the desperation a much lower ceiling. It's not even desperation anymore. It's pointing away from the players as the reason for leaving and towards the institutions. Justin Fields is lied to? Used as a gimmick? Fine. He can just go to Ohio State. It has little to do with Fields as a player. It has more to do with how Georgia treated him.

    Same with Lingard and Shorter. In 2002, both players would still be on their respective teams, trying to fight for playing time. Currently, they can do this.
     
  15. wyldcrocodyl

    wyldcrocodyl Recruit

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    I wonder if the portal might best be understood the way K State and Nebraska used to use JUCO transfers. Those teams were a little before I followed the ins and outs of recruiting, but I have been given to understand that those teams fleshed out their teams with JUCO transfers that had talent, but obstacles to normal enrollment as a freshman. The draw was you got a player that had already progressed in his development, but on a short term basis. It cost you a freshman that you could develop over three to four years. Bluebloods (and Spurrs at the time) avoided this method, but teams that wanted to compete and had issues in recruiting embraced it.
     
  16. oneatatime

    oneatatime GC Hall of Fame

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    On defense, Tedarrell Slaton, Zachary Carter, Ventrell Miller, Shawn Davis and Donovan Stiner are seniors. Marco Wilson and Brenton Cox likely declare for the draft as well.

    The suggestion here, that with a good year, Brenton Cox will be a one-and-done
     
  17. WhattaGator

    WhattaGator "Where's The Beef"?? (Or the crabcakes, etc.)... VIP Member "Cook Shack Chef"

    Maybe...just maybe, but doubtfuf that Cox will be as you call it, a "one and done"....
    He transferred for a reason...he didn't get playing time...and unless he turns out to be some sort o f superstar...he's gonna need development undef Mullen and Grantham, and quite a bit of playig time to really build his NFL stock up...

    Also...with the loss of our Gator seniors on the defense....Coach Mullen already has a BUNCH of guys getttig very ready to strep right up, and right in....

    I'm really not worried one bit..not on either side of the ball. :):)
     
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  18. G8torsRUL

    G8torsRUL GC Legend

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    Former 5-star Eyabi Anoma enters portal
     
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  19. scooterp

    scooterp GC Legend

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    UGA was +27 blue chips on the roster vs UF when Mullen arrived. 26 months later it’s dropped to +11. I don’t care how he wants to spin it, that’s pretty damn good. Mullen has hit on needs and has balanced the experience.
     
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  20. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Dismissed from both Alabama and Houston. Pass. Kiffin will take him.
     
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