Discussion in 'Awesome Recruiting' started by Gatorhead, May 1, 2020.
And Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl.....
All you need to remember is 52-20
glad your that confident. I’d rather win and then talk.
@Skink Typically, I find myself in agreement with your opinion, however, I think @graylon is killing it here.
To be sure, I don't think anybody is even suggesting firing CDM in any way. If somebody here is actually saying that, then please speak up because I don't mean to misrepresent you at all. I think we all appreciate the job that CDM has done so far on and off of the field.
Despite the admirable performance of CDM and staff, that the recruiting is far behind the elites is unequivocal. Consider the statistics. NOTE: I am taking these from @willmilessec
With National Signing Day coming, Dan Mullen is building and betting on defense - Read and Reaction
First, let's consider the classes broken down into star rankings:
Consider the blue chip percent. With a blue chip percent of 71%, this puts CDM's class just behind CWM at 73%. Arguably, there is no statistical difference between the blue chip percentage in these classes: approximately an equal percentage of blue-chippers constitute each class. In fact, they are both ahead of the Zooker and Urban.
However, as @willmilessec goes on, analyzing the classes via blue-chip percentage is a misleading lens. Ultimately, it does not scrutinize these classes accurately. Instead, it leads us into a false conclusion.
Consider the examination via a tiered system:
Examination through this perspective yields an altogether disparate--and more accurate--analysis. If we consider just the top-300%, then we see that the Zooker and Meyer are a bit in their own tier, with everybody else falling into a quite different second tier. Given the results on the field, this is a rather congruent picture. Nevertheless, I don't think that in of itself gives us the most accurate representation.
Consider the cases of Zook and Muschamp. Both brought in an equal number of top-100 players. Moreover, Zook nabbed only one more top-200 player. While the difference in their top-300% is quite significant, nevertheless, they are approximately identical for the top-200 gross number of players and top-200%. Where Zook is a clear winner is in the 201-300 tier. Ultimately, this is what separates Zook from Mushcamp on paper.
Not lost in all of this is where Meyer dominated. He brought in a staggering gross number of 12 top-100 players. That's exactly equal to the sum total of Zook plus Muschamp. More to the point, of Meyer's top-300, 12 of the 19 came from this top-100 tier. Consider the top-100% out of the top-300%:
%top-100 out of 300 = (number of top-100/total number of top-300) x 100%
Meyer: 12/19 x 100% = 63.2%
Muschamp: 6/11 x 100% = 54.5%
Zook: 6/15 x 100% = 40.0%
Mullen: 4/12 x 100% = 33.3%
McElwain: 1/10 x 100% = 10.0%
What is more, the comparison becomes even more telling when we consider the classes from just the top-100 players:
%top-100 out of entire class = (number of top-100/total number of recruits) x 100%
Meyer: 12/29 x 100% = 41.4%
Muschamp: 6/22 x 100% = 27.3%
Zook: 6/23 x 100% = 26.1%
Mullen: 4/24 x 100% = 16.7%
McElwain: 1/22 x 100% = 4.55%
Inspecting the classes from these perspectives may suggest an altogether different hierarchy:
2nd-Tier: Muschamp & Zook
And the gap between Meyer and the 2nd-tier is considerable. Top-100 players were the constituents of almost half of Meyer's class.
Why is this important?
The top-100 players are those most likely to become impact players at this level, as well as those drafted in early rounds for the NFL. They are most likely to be your game changers.
As I said earlier, I think we all love and appreciate what CDM is doing. He is demonstrably an excellent coach on the field. I do not think anybody here with a critical opinion does not want CDM as the head coach. Nevertheless, the statics demonstrate unequivocally that recruiting has a long way to go. There are far-reaching changes that must take place on the trail if CDM is to take the program from where he has it currently to the Gators Standard.
I this explanation falls just a bit short of the mark. Consider that it fails to explain the success that Mr. Potato Head is having in Knoxville.
Not only is @bobbybaker86 right about the class size, but also he's right about the quality of quarterback play. Dabo brings in elite quarterback play consistently. This carries a great deal of weight in the modern game.
Moreover, the comparison between UF and Clemson is an unbalanced one. While UF may finish 9th overall in the country, still, this is good only for 6th in the SEC. Meanwhile, Clemson may finished outside of the top 10 in the country, which lands them as 2nd in the ACC. That the level of play and the caliber of players is much higher in the SEC than the ACC is of no doubt: Clemson can afford to finish further down the overall rankings because the ACC is not even as remotely competitive as the SEC.
Appreciate it LL
I see lots of data but no transfers worked into the equation. And I feel that has been somewhat of an equalizer for Mullen in how talent & depth has been upgraded on the roster but seems to always get omitted in any discussion.
Recruiting isn’t the actual result we are looking for ...having a talented roster is. That’s the end game. And it’s just a bad argument if you can’t factor in Grimes, Jefferson, Lingard, Shuler, Cox, Greenard, Shorter etc.
60% blue chip ratio on the roster has been the standard in taking teams from “good” to contenders ...and we are off that by a hair right now. And we haven’t been anywhere close to that in 7 years. You don’t need to hit that mark exclusively through recruiting. A decade ago you did but times have changed.
I agree with you 100%. If I may add, every body in the college football world knows CDM is not the greatest recruiter or even considered good for that matter. But the star gazers keeps comparing him to those guys who are great recruiters, but neglect the transfers CDM was able to bring in to UF. Plus, the success CDM had in 2 years compare to the other guys. There is something to be said when people here are unhappy with 10 and 11 win seasons. When people start saying 11 wins is mediocre (I'm going to refrain...)
Somebody just showed a table of blue chippers and what CDM has brought in so far. It looked to me that he is improving the roster. It is just not good enough to some people here. Someone mentioned Pruitt and the success he's having in recruiting, but do UF fans really want his record at UT? Not me. We all want to see CDM to bring in all the best recruits out there. It's just not happening right now. I know patience is a virtue, but I would rather wait and see after CDM have all his players in before making a judgment. I just think he has a different plan for how he wants his team to operate. A lot different from ours.
I think most people would agree that 5* elite players can be immediate game changers. We don’t get them.
It is possible that you can like Mullen and also think he needs to address some staff woes. More Savages less slugs
That's exactly it. The two losses that we had last year, people want to point to not having a healthy Greenard or/and Zuniga. That's fine but you know how you combat that? Having highly rated and more IMPORTANTLY developed depth. That's why we're clamouring that we have to hit on the big fish that we go after in these recruiting battles. The fall off from Zuniga and Greenard to our back ups was DRASTIC (look at our two losses). Gotta be able to curve that drop off when your back ups are in
Same people that say "stars dont matter come signing day" were the same ones mad that the OL played bad last year..can't have it both ways.
This was us last year but it will be better next season once Reese arrives and Gouriage is a full time starter.
THATS THE PROBLEM IM TALKING ABOUT...Delance and Forsythe were liabilities last year.. when you're a position coach that cant recruit or keep the upper tier talent on his roster to complete with the monsters that Georgia, Ohio St., Alabama, Clemson, LSU, and even Auburn are getting... last year we couldn't even move the ball on the ground against Kentucky. That's a problem!!... I'm not saying 11-2 or 10-3 is mediocre, but it's not the end all be all to hang your hat on... We have finished in the top 10 two years straight and Offensive genius head coach and offensive line coach gets dominated in recruiting on the line.. Georgia could give us 3 of their offensive line studs and we would still be behind... Florida has plenty of playing time to offer, it baffles me that none of the Upper Elites want to come play for Hevesey.... Avantae Williams going to Miami is a head scratcher, how is English not able to pull him in... We beat Miami and finished in the top ten how can you not pull him in... Williams is the type of talent that will help us get off the field on 3rd down against Georgia... Hes the type of talent that can play nickel if we have a guy like Dean who is struggling... When we miss on a recruit like that ot sets us back a little bit... say for instance Clemson doesnt get Demarkcus Bowman it doesnt hurt them cause they have so many elite playmakers on their roster, it hurts us more cause we dont have that explosive type of guy put pressure on teams like Georgia, LSU and Albama... Until we correct this YES WE WILL BE BEHIND THE ELITE TEAMS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!!
Yes we get transfers but you need that added depth behind them.. I dont get enamored with stars. I look at the talent that certain players possess. I would rather have a guy like Christian Leary than a five star receiver. Christian Leary has game-changing speed at any time he can put pressure on the defense with or without the ball.
I wonder if Bowman thinks Shipley is going to take his spot. Oh, sorry, wrong board!
Bruh you sound like me when it comes to Leary....we NEED THAT SPEED. Ive been on Leary since the start of the year that we need to go all in on him. I think Copeland has ALL WORLD potential but adding Leary to the slot too would just be godly. He's sooo versatile that i think he'd fill Toney's "role" if we are able to get him to us.
You and I aren't saying Mullen needs to go or he is overachieving, but he's going to Mark Richt himself in creating his own glass ceiling IN MY OPINION, if he some staff changes aren't made. Not sure if he has to desire to replace Knox and/or English but by the next recruiting cycle, the 2022 class, if things stay the same with whiffing on top targets, then it's going tonget nuclear. There's only sooo long you can mask solid coaching and "solid" recruiting. Miami just pulled in TWO top RB's from our state and we saw FIRST HAND how atrocious their OL was last season. There's no excuses to have missed at RB last cycle. Yes we got Lingard but he had his eyes on UF for a minute.
For the record, I'm NOT saying we should be signing 3+ 5* talent every cycle, i just think we can position ourselves faster in signing more top 150 talent. We'll get there imo, but it's going to take more time if the staff stays the same
UNTIL they play an SEC team or other elite team in the CFP.
With an average rank of 11 during the time period I mentioned, they have beaten Alabama TWICE in the title game.
And we have recruited the hell out of QBs here during that same time frame, several of whom are on NFL rosters right now. We didn't develop them, system was wrong, playcalling was jacked, etc.
The point is its more than just about recruiting a highly rated class.
36 percent of the time is not routine. Period.
You quite literally missed the point entirely:
We can go back to the recruiting classes in previous years and find that while the rankings for Alabama and Clemson are quite different, nonetheless, in many cases--albeit not all--the average is quite similar.
More to the point, however, is the quarterback play. Elite quarterback play as been one of the most key variables to a team's chances for entering into, and competing in, the CFP. Are you questioning that? Maybe a bit uncertain? Consider the 2018 and 2019 LSU teams. What was the separating factor? What made the 2019 LSU team so much different from the 2018 team?
As an aside, I have said on here the Burrow was an excellent QB as far back as 2018. I like the way he plays. That being said, I think Fromm is an excellent QB. In fact, they have more in common with each other than either has with Tua. From just the skill perspective, both are more skilled at playing the QB position right now than is Tua. That could change in the future, however.
Of course...just responding to some that are so critical of our current staff, but forgetting SOS had his shortcomings. ..I love the HBC..he has done a lot for our program..both as a player and coa h..but he was not perfect
I still think we land Collier and Marshall and Taylor when it's all said and done. If they wanted into Palmetto, wonder why they didn't greenlight Portier and let him go to FSU and we wouldn't have had to deal with Brashard Smith
I tend to agree with slot of what you say, however this can only apply to 2 maybe 3 classes of his 11 (17 and 18, maybe 16 if you want to). But as recent as 2019 they had 29 recruits to UF 25 and UF was 9th to their 10th.
I don't know how many classes you want to look at but unless you stop at 2016(7 years into his tenure at Clemson) this is not true. This is true of less than half of Dabo's classes
Thanks LL - the numbers tell a story for sure. As the numbers are focused on their 3rd recruiting classes, it might be worth considering the position all these coaches were in at that time.
Meyer, the class of the lot, already had a national championship to show his recruits. The 2nd best in your rankings, Zook, was the poster child for “good at recruiting, not so good on game day”, and even so he walked into in a far better position than Mullen. Even Muschamp had a team 2 years off of a national championship.
Repeating myself here, Dan Mullen came in on the heels of 9 consecutive years of mediocrity. Zook, Meyer, and Muschamp all had a far stronger brand to promote than Dan Mullen.
But that’s changing fast. Go Gators