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The Degenerate Bettors Corner

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by 95Gator, Jan 13, 2020.

  1. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Ok, so am I crazy or is the 66.5 total seem outrageously low for this game?

    I don't understand it? Whenever I think something is so obvious, I am missing something. I know they both have great defenses but they both have offenses that score on great defenses so please someone tell me why I shouldn't bet the mortgage on the over which I thought for sure, I would bet the under which is usually the play on any liquidated game like this as so many people put little dime bets on the over on games like this just because they want to bet one last time and people like rooting for offenses.

    I am definitely not taking the under and LSU is a 5 point favorite and I don't really want to touch that either although it's hard to not look at how Burrow looked last time they played and not want to lay the house on LSU -5 as well but I am feeling like maybe he's not as amazing ase overuse says. He's fantastic by any metric but people were calling him the next Brady because of a game and Brady went late in the 7th and rode the bench until Bledse got in there on an injury and hasn't stopped destroying teams since.


    ANYWHO, so what say you?

    I think the play is the over at 66.5 and if I could only figure out how to buy a 1/2 point on 5Dimes, I would be happy. I feel so strongly about it that I want to take all my winning from tis season and put it on it.

    I mean look at ESPN's "pros" picks:

    Emmanuel Acho [​IMG] 34-31
    Andrea Adelson [​IMG] 38-35
    Adam Amin [​IMG] 38-31
    Matt Barrie [​IMG] 38-34
    Jon Beason [​IMG] 41-31
    Anthony Becht [​IMG] 41-24
    Jason Benetti [​IMG] 24-20
    Rocky Boiman [​IMG] 38-34
    Peter Burns [​IMG] 42-31
    Bill Connelly [​IMG] 39-36
    Chris Cotter [​IMG] 34-31
    Cole Cubelic [​IMG] 42-34
    Heather Dinich [​IMG] 35-28
    Chris Doering [​IMG] 41-28
    Wes Durham [​IMG] 37-32
    David Hale [​IMG] 35-28
    Tom Hart [​IMG] 45-28
    Matt Hasselbeck [​IMG] 33-27
    Tim Hasselbeck [​IMG] 30-27
    Mark Herzlich [​IMG] 42-37
    Rod Gilmore [​IMG] 31-27
    Sam Khan Jr. [​IMG] 37-30
    Alyssa Lang [​IMG] 42-35
    Ryan Leaf [​IMG] 48-38
    Steve Levy [​IMG] 34-31
    Tom Luginbill [​IMG] 41-37
    Eric Mac Lain [​IMG] 42-35
    Ivan Maisel [​IMG] 41-24
    EJ Manuel [​IMG] 38-31
    Greg McElroy [​IMG] 42-38
    Ryan McGee [​IMG] 42-31
    Todd McShay [​IMG] 38-34
    Beth Mowins [​IMG] 38-31
    Dave Neal [​IMG] 41-31
    Kevin Negandhi [​IMG] 41-37
    Dari Nowkhah [​IMG] 30-28
    Dan Orlovsky [​IMG] 38-34
    Mark Packer [​IMG] 38-35
    Dave Pasch [​IMG] 38-35
    Kelsey Riggs [​IMG] 38-35
    Adam Rittenberg [​IMG] 37-31
    Alex Scarborough [​IMG] 34-30
    Mark Schlabach [​IMG] 38-34
    DJ Shockley [​IMG] 34-24
    Matt Stinchcomb [​IMG] 34-29
    Tom VanHaaren [​IMG] 31-24
    Jon Vilma [​IMG] 33-27
    Bob Wischusen [​IMG] 38-34
    Taylor Zarzour [​IMG] 40-30

    ______________________________

    There is only like 4 picks that call the under. I don't know. I normally wouldn't bet on this game but last game of the season dumb bet. Put it all on red?
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

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    I think I would stay away from that number.

    Typically games like this are lower scoring than you would think, but is it unrealistic to see a 31-28 game (that would be under) or a 38-35game (that would be over).
    I also wouldn’t touch the line, feels like a pickem game to me
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  3. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Tend to agree but I am going with the crowd at ESPN and for fun but a couple dimes on 66 and bought the half point to make it (-115) instead of (-110). You think it's bad enough a bet that I should offset the bet?

    I think they will score a ton because the offenses seem to do better in the second round of the playoffs than the defenses and both of these teams had pretty damn good offenses in the first round.

    Oh well, it's just money. :-X

    Had I read your thoughts before placing my bet, I might have been inclined to listen to you but I did it anyway.
     
  4. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    They thought our game vs OU would be a high scoring affair. What with OU putting up 60+ per game.
    Final was 24-14.

    And Venables has had 2 weeks to counter Burrow. Still- really tough game to bet.
     
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  5. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Interesting that Chris Doering's predicted score basically says Clemson = UF.
     
  6. hoyt233

    hoyt233 GC Hall of Fame

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    Prattvile, AL-Go Lions!
    A fool and his money are soon parted.
     
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  7. Agator88

    Agator88 All American

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    Last years title game looked like a for sure barn burner. Then ended up one sided and fell on 60. I'd be concerned if one team got out to a hot start and just never let up like Clemson did last year.
     
  8. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    The O/U opened at 69 and is down to 66. Smart $ is on the under. LSU is down to 4.5 now. Late $ is on Clemson and the under. Not much to like in this game, but I like LSU under 36.5. They might do their thing and score in the 40s on Clemson, but I have a feeling it won't go that way. Probably a 27-17 type game.
     
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  9. metalcoater

    metalcoater Senior

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    I do not bet, but if I did I would put on LSU to cover.
     
  10. GameTime1

    GameTime1 GC Legend

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    I'd take lsu and the over
     
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  11. danmann65

    danmann65 GC Legend

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    I would take lsu and the over but I wouldn't put any of my money on it. Maybe a little of yours.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  12. igabradley

    igabradley GC Hall of Fame

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    When did EJ Manuel become an expert?
     
  13. mcogator

    mcogator Senior

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    Is a dime $10 like a dime bag used to be, or is it $100 or $1k in gambling lingo?
     
  14. gator32405

    gator32405 Senior

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    Feeling pretty solid about my LSU -3.5 right now; over looking good at halftime but I didn’t take it
     
  15. igabradley

    igabradley GC Hall of Fame

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    Over 66.5 is a great bet at this time. Kudos! Always love your betting threads!
     
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  16. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

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    Looks like you won and I lost. Congrats
     
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  17. mcogator

    mcogator Senior

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    So the over/under was 66.5, the total was 67 points. If Clemson went for the extra point instead of the 2 pt conversion it would have been 66. Hmmmmmm....
     
  18. tommyvee

    tommyvee GC Hall of Fame

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    Only bet $100 each, but won with LSU -4.5 and the OVER.
     

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  19. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Good thing you waited on the over. It was 69.5 just a few days ago.
     
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  20. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Nope, this fool put half of his sting winings this season on the over. I had did a little more research.

    What an idiotic post. If you didn’t agree that’s fine but to insinuate I’m a fool when my betting is past pro level for nearly a decade. I probably made more money betting for fun on this game and taking the over at 66 which was a great bet and I won with a long scoring drought at the beginning and the end of the game still won more than you probably make in a week.

    A fool and his money made less on his wings than I did. I had the game DVRd so I had to wait until just now to watch and I had gone from 5 dimes to putting half my extensive winnings of the season for the 7th winning season in a row for myself. I make more money betting on college football than I do on my 401k, gold and the straight stock market.

    I have a trust for my daughter that will mean she will never have to pay for college. All not as much as I make betting on sports.

    So exactly why am I a fool again? I by the way, usually post when I make large bets when I think it’s a good one and I try to spread my thoughts for my gator brethren.

    Who’s the fool?