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Phil Steele's Magazine ∙ 2018's Top College Football Teams ∙ SEC Analysis

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by mulegator, Jun 12, 2018.

  1. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    South Carolina ranked by positions

    Quarterbacks - 21
    Running Backs - 36
    Receivers - 19
    Offensive Line - Not ranked in top 56
    Defensive Line - 18
    Linebackers - 39
    Defensive Backs - 35
    Special Teams - 17

    Will Muschamp had perhaps the least talented team in the East in 2016 yet got to a bowl. Last year South Carolina was -16.5 ypg in SEC play yet got to 2nd place in the East at 5-3 and got to 9 wins overall despite losing his top playmaker WR/KR Deebo Samuel after 3 starts and top RB after 4 starts. This is Muschamp’s most talented team yet and I look for significant improvement in the ypg. SC hosts Georgia week 2 as a weaker SC team played a stronger Georgia team tough on the road last year. It would not surprise me if Muschamp surpassed my expectations once again. South Carolina had their first losing season since 2003 in 2015. In '16 with a young team they had low expectations but did rate a +6.0 on my Stock Market Indicator and had 4 net close losses in '15 (pg 24). Muschamp did a great job guiding them to a bowl. In 2017 the Gamecocks went from #108 on my Experience Chart in 2016 to #26. Muschamp got them beyond expectations once again at 9-4 with a bowl win over Michigan, despite some untimely injuries like losing their top RB and WR for most of the year. South Carolina is 50-14 in their last 64 home games. This year SC has 14 ret starters and could be potent on offense. They are #29 on my Exp Chart. Signs pointing down are they had +4 Net Close Wins in '17, +4 Net Upsets and +11 in TO's and rate a -4.5 in my Stock Market Indicator. Muschamp is recruiting on a higher level than Spurrier did in his later years here, and this is a very experienced team that gets WR Samuel and RB Dowdle back. SC will be a legitimate player in the East and gets a key game vs Georgia week 2. This is Muschamp's best team yet here.

     
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  2. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    LSU ranked by positions

    Quarterbacks - Not ranked in top 55
    Running Backs - 52
    Receivers - 28
    Offensive Line - 19
    Defensive Line - 26
    Linebackers - 10
    Defensive Backs - 4
    Special Teams - Not ranked in top 55

    LSU was 6-2 in SEC play in 2017 and only were #95 on my Experience Chart. This year LSU drops to #129 on the Exp Chart and hosts Alabama and Georgia meaning a lot of toss up games (like Auburn, Florida and A&M) are on the road. QB Joe Burrow is a solid addition for the offense, but they are changing schemes again and lose RB Guice. Aranda will have a solid D and there is a lot of pressure on Orgeron to win this year. LSU has won 8+ games in 17 straight seasons (2nd longest streak FBS). They were the 2nd most experienced team in the SEC in '16, but did face 5 bowl teams on the road. Since their '11 Title game LSU has lost 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, and 4 games. Ed Orgeron took over a 2-2 team and led them to 6-2 with close losses to Alabama and Florida. Last year LSU was #95 on my Exp Chart and had five SEC road games, but got back to 9 wins. They did get the late addition of QB Burrow from Ohio St and Aranda will guide one of the SEC's top defenses as always. LSU was +10 in TO's in 2017. This year they have just 10 returning starters, and drop to #129 on my Experience Chart. The Tigers play Miami in the opener and two of their SEC home games are vs Alabama and Georgia. They will have to win some big road games this year to get back to 2017's 9 win total and Ed Orgeron is on my hotseat list.

     
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  3. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    Phil's 2018 SEC Unit Rankings

    ………………...QB...RB...REC...OL..DL..LB..DB...ST...Coaches
    Alabama...……..1......1......6......1.....1....1.....1.....7.........1.....
    Auburn............1......6.....3......9......3....3.....4.....9.........2....
    Miss State........1......3....12.....5......1....7.....4.....6........13...
    Texas A&M.......7......3....10.....7......6....3.....8.....3.........5....
    LSU................12....11.....8.....5......6....2.....1.....9.........6....
    Arkansas.........12.....6....11.....9......9...12...14....5........12....
    Mississippi........7.....13....1......4.....12..14....7....14.......11....

    ………………...QB...RB...REC...OL..DL..LB..DB...ST...Coaches
    Georgia............1.....2......2......1....4.....3..…3.....1...…….2...….
    Florida...………..10.....3......8......7....4.....3....4.....9...…….6...….
    S Carolina...…...6.....6......3......11...6....8.....8.....3...…...4...….
    Missouri...……….1.....10.....3......3....9....11...12....2...…….9...…
    Kentucky...…….14.....6.....13....11...13...8.....8....12...…...6.....
    Tennessee...….10.....11.....6.....11...9....8.....8.....8...…….13....
    Vanderbilt...…...9.....13....13....11...13..12...12...13...…....9.....
     
  4. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl GC Hall of Fame

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    Hard to believe that with the talent at WR, ours are only 8th best in the SEC :emoji_thinking:. Now, production might be limited by QB play, but I can't imagine this group of WRs is only 8th in the league. Our DB ranking needs to improve too. It's what we do.
     
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  5. Exactly right. Much of the rise will be due to the running backs, WRs, and the offensive scheme fitting the personnel and the mindset of these kids today. But we're balanced, we have better experience, and we're excited. That's a good combination all the way around.
     
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  6. NOLAGATOR

    NOLAGATOR GC Hall of Fame

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    2nd in the SEC East

    Win more than 8 Games - I say 9

    This looks real good to me.

    Throw in an FSU Win and a good Bowl and I'm tickled pink
     
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  7. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    I value Steele's rankings much more than any of the other talking heads.
    His track record is better; his rankings are driven by the numbers.
    I don't see any bias in his evaluations.

    He ranks the SEC as the toughest conference again this year.
    5 of his top 21 teams are in the SEC.
    6 of his top 27 teams are SEC.
    9 SEC teams are in his top 50.

    Phil Steele is proud to be a voter on the following Award Committees:
    The FWAA All-America Committee
    The Heisman Trophy
    Outland Trophy
    Bronko Nagurski Trophy
    Maxwell Award
    Chuck Bednarik Award
    Rotary Lombardi Award
    Lott IMPACT Trophy
    Davey O’Brien Award
    Jim Thorpe Award
    Doak Walker Award
    Biletnikoff Award
    John Mackey Award
    Ted Hendricks Award
    Lou Groza Award
    Johnny "The Jet" Rodgers Award
    Paul Hornung Award
    Rimington Trophy
    Earl Campbell Award
    Joe Moore O-line Award
     
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  8. theghost

    theghost GC Hall of Fame

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    Here's another just released O/U for SEC teams by betonline. LSU is at 6.5 wins - so Steele's projections aren't too far off. I'm curious to see how they use Joe Burrow:

    • Alabama — 10½
    • Arkansas — 5½
    • Auburn — 8½
    • Florida — 7½
    • Georgia — 10½
    • Kentucky — 5½
    • LSU — 6½
    • Mississippi — 6½
    • Mississippi State — 8½
    • Missouri — 6½
    • South Carolina — 7½
    • Tennessee — 6½
    • Texas A&M — 7½
    • Vanderbilt — 4½
     
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  9. themistocles

    themistocles Premium Member

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    Very interesting stuff, especially the relative position rankings. I must assume that the Gator #8 WR ranking does not include either Jefferson or Grimes. It's interesting regarding RBs that Bama is #1, Georgia, for some reason is #2 and the Gators are tied with Tx A&M for #3.

    Of course, all of this stuff is based on History, and, as SOS showed quite clearly in his first year, History, although the best predictor of the Future, is sometimes not very accurate at all.
     
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  10. The_Graygator

    The_Graygator GC Hall of Fame

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    I hate UGA but I'd have to give them #2 considering they have a better QB situation coming into 2018 than Clemson does. That doesn't mean I think UGA will end up #2 at season's end, because I think they will have some drop-off this year before a powerful couple of years in 2019 and 2020. Don't even know if I'd put Clemson above OSU to be honest.
     
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  11. lizardbreath

    lizardbreath All American

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    The mojo is quite good - and may get a lot better after all is said and done. The apparent return of both Davis and Heggie is huge. If both WR transfers are allowed to play, we should be better at that position than we've been in ages. The JC 4* TE constitutes a significant boost to an already very good class for 2018. I say again, the vibe is good and a strong showing this season could well set the table for a meteoric rise in our football fortunes. Optimistic? Maybe. Obtainable? Absolutely. Go Gators!
     
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  12. theghost

    theghost GC Hall of Fame

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    No, it's not based on "history". It's based on betting/wagering. That is what Steele's magazine is about and what it's used for. It was started for handicappers/betters to review so they would be more educated when making bets. The only "history" in the magazine is trends, such as: UF is 9-1 vs. the spread after a home loss - or - UK is 1-12 ATS on the road vs. teams ranked inside the top 15. Other than that, it's based on the current roster. If you want a magazine that ranks positions based on history, go read Lindy's or Sporting News.

    The reason UGA has the #2 RB group is because they recruit studs at RB year in and year out. This is UGA's TB's:
    D’Andre Swift, Brian Herrien and Elijah Holyfield....plus two true freshman, #1 & #3 RB's in the nation, Zamir White and James Cook. That's three 5-star RB's. Until our RB's show consistency I'd say getting a #3 ranking is pretty fair.
     
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  13. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    About the wide receivers ..
    Jefferson and Grimes are included on the roster in Phil Steele's evaluation.
     
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  14. lizardbreath

    lizardbreath All American

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    Sweet.
     
  15. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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  16. themistocles

    themistocles Premium Member

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    Handicappers ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS based their decisions on HISTORY', until the first game's been played, at which point current performance begins to outweigh history and after 3 games are finished, current performance/injuries dominate handicapping.

    Of course, Handicappers only create the Initial Odds. It's the amount of money laid on different teams that determine all odds after the initial ones.

    When your choice's odds go down as the Crowd Chooses, this is a Good Sign. When your choice's odds go up, the opposite is true. But, of course, odds, although highly predictive, do not determine results, it's rather actions on the field, as guided and determined by the Football Fate Gods that determine results.
     
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  17. INGATORSWETRUST

    INGATORSWETRUST GC Hall of Fame

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    The House always wins. Had a cab driver tell me on the way to the Vegas airport that he has been driving for 30 years and has never taken a winner to the airport. Pretty telling.
     
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  18. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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  19. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member VIP Member

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    I think the last time he picked us as most improved we went 12-1 Muschamp's first year. He like starts and stars a lot.
     
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  20. tarponbro

    tarponbro GC Legend

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