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Oh, My, Possible NCAA Transfer Rule Change

Discussion in 'Awesome Recruiting' started by doctorg8r, Feb 19, 2020.

  1. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

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    You know they'd find a way around it. It's not like Coach O is going to be calling a kid like Lawrence on the phone. They'd find ways to keep there from being direct ties to the schools. Bet you'd start finding "agents" out there trying to become the intermediary between players and "bagmen". Even if they get caught, they have no ties to the school and the NCAA can't do much about it.

    In fact, with the new regulations allowing athletes to profit from their likeness, would it technically be against the NCAA rules if a Bama booster went to an athlete like Lawrence as said, if you lived in Tuscaloosa, I'd be willing to pay you $2 million dollars to be in my auto dealership TV ads? Not a direct offer, but just a statement but clearly an implied offer. I'm not sure it would.

    It's a totally different situation from recruiting because nobody really knows who these blue chip recruits are coming out of HS. But a kid like Lawrence is very well recognized and could command a major endorsement deal on his own.
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2020
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  2. GATOR_4Life

    GATOR_4Life GC Legend

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    I can see that as a problem, but the worry I'm trying to address is in the difficulty staying close to 85 scholarship players. If programs are routinely losing 5-10 players after recruiting season it'll be impossible to maintain full rosters. Ultimately if schools can't maintain full rosters that going to reduce the number of kids who can get an education.
     
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  3. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm not sure I'm following. Traditionally, the majority of attrition occurs after Spring practice and usually players transfer because they find themselves passed up during Spring practice on the depth chart. Then there are always a few who have grade issues who fail out or get in legal trouble and kicked off the team, particularly during the Summer. Very few schools actually find themselves at the full 85 when Fall starts unless they oversign by a few.

    There was never much reason for players who wanted to transfer to leave before the end of Spring semester because they'd have to sit out a full year and be away from training for that 6 months. That part may change if players are immediately eligible and can transfer and be in the new school before Spring, but to do that, they effectively have to announce before the enrollment date, which is well before signing day.

    So I'm not sure how players being required to enter the portal a few days before signing day would make any difference.

    I assume your point has to do with helping the school a player is transferring FROM being able to replace the player, but keep in mind, a last minute high school recruit, especially likely a plan-B, is not likely to replace anybody in the line-up who leaves for at least a couple of years. And the program is still going to likely have post-Spring practice attrition and kids who fail out or get kicked out and end up under 85.

    I think the bigger impact is to a the school a player is transferring TO. A school who whiffed at a position of need on signing day, can fill an immediate roster hole with somebody who should be an immediate contributor. And after all the attrition, the school can fill spots with transfers to get very close to the 85 man limit.

    That seems like it would accomplish your issue better than making transfers decide before signing day.
     
  4. doctorg8r

    doctorg8r Junior

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    Water's getting awfully murky, eh?
     
  5. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep. Like Pandora's Pond.

    They'd better give some serious thought to how all these things work together or it could become a total cluster f&$k.
     
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  6. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    I think as long as incoming transfers count against the 25 initial counters then that will help tone down the chaos.
    A team would only take so many one-year kids.
     
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  7. scooterp

    scooterp GC Legend

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    Hate it.

    We’ll wish we never did it. But won’t be able to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Big mistake IMO
     
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  8. SeabudGator

    SeabudGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I understand that you are not arguing my point, but asserting that the NCAA is a "not-for-profit" and "makes money for the schools" is not the full story either. See NCAA reports revenues of more than $1 billion

    The NCAA had revenue over $1B last year. Know many not for profits that make over $1B in revenue from operations? They paid out $560M to Div. 1 members. OK - so they exist to make a shit ton of money for D1 schools, and they do. But they also spent 10s of millions on legal fees (largely to fight student athletes participating in revenue sharing - you know they are not going after cheaters like LSU b/c the evidence proves they are not) and paid Mark Emmert about $4M/year. What not for profit pays its chief executive $4M/year?

    I think you and I agree that the schools (and coaches) are at the feeding trough here and for them to cry about another mouth at the table (players) is hypocritical. But the NCAA is also there and makes a small number of people a lot of money, funds collective litigation by the schools to keep the system in place, and makes a farce out of being a not for profit entity.
     
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  9. G8tr69

    G8tr69 GC Hall of Fame

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    The NCAA will still find a way to hose it up! LOL :p;)
     
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  10. thale410

    thale410 GC Hall of Fame

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    The basic logistics and coordination of such an extreme example make it completely unfeasible/unlikely in football (as does the nature of the sport).

    Any drastic loopholes exploited will inevitablely come from basketball, and will be closed quickly I'd imagine.

    There will be a handful of guys moving each year and it will likely be little net gain or loss for top programs if you look at it over a few seasons.
     
  11. doctorg8r

    doctorg8r Junior

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    Anyway, it probably will be a cluster cluck, but, if the article is accurate, Shorter and Lingard will play this fall!
     
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  12. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    AdventHealth not-for-profit 2019 total revenue: $18.24B. Orlando Health and UF Health also approached $1B for 2019.

    Plus, there's these eighteen non-profit charities with greater than $1B in 2019 revenue:
    America's Top Charities 2019
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2020
  13. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

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    I suspect the reality will be somewhere in-between. If you allow kids the one free transfer, there will surely be a lot more kids taking advantage of it. What I think may change is that instead of the transfers mostly being guys who aren't starters and looking for playing time (as it is now), you're going to see more starters and superstars transfer because they want more exposure or a better chance at a championship.

    And while the scenario of a school replacing an entire roster every year is unlikely, I think you'll see a lot more schools rely on transfers to replace graduating starters as opposed to developing talent. I agree that this isn't likely to affect the elite teams as much. The teams I think are more likely to "abuse" the system are going to be the teams that don't have the talent or depth in any given season and are desperate to rebuild talent quickly, which is why I used FSU in my example.
     
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  14. doctorg8r

    doctorg8r Junior

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    Probably, these two comments sum it up! I think some players will not hesitate to enter the transfer portal (such as, Rick Wells; only using as an example, since he is a senior and won't happen). I'm wondering if this transfer rule might be more of a positive for players and teams?
     
  15. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    I think it will be. I think this is a very positive development. (And will help us- but that's beside the point.)

    It's easy to imagine the worst-case scenario.
    IMO the worst case is wholesale gutting of teams in a free-agent free-for-all among colleges.

    BUT, changing schools is a big decision. These players upend their whole lives.
    So if a player is relatively happy he is probably staying.

    AND, a transfer has to be a 2-way street.
    The receiving school has to think about taking a player with only 1-2 years left, as opposed to a kid they can develop.
    Again, IMO, if every incoming transfer counts against the 25 counters (as they do today), it will keep this situation manageable.
     
  16. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

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    This is the part I think people may be underestimating. Coaches are expected to win immediately. Certainly most coaches want to develop talent, but I think almost all of them are focused on their 3-deep depth roster for the upcoming season and maybe one season out. They know if they're not winning they're likely out of a job in a year or 2.

    Keep in mind we're probably not talking about comparing transfers versus blue chip HS recruits. Schools will still sign those blue chippers. We're talking about coaches comparing taking a transfer versus somebody in the bottom half of their recruiting class.

    So if the team has holes in it's 3-deep, does it make more sense for them to bring in an experienced transfer who will be on the depth chart immediately (even if it's only for 1-2 years), or do they sign a 3-star high school kid who's likely not going to crack the depth chart for 2-3 years. Coaches have a much better gauge how the transfer is going to compete against college level talent than a high schooler who was likely competing against significantly inferior talent.

    I think that more often than not, a coach is probably going to take the low-risk experienced transfer over a higher-risk HS player. Think about what NFL teams do. If they have an immediate need, they're more likely to try to address it through free agency than draft picks. I think there's going to be a lot more transferring than people expect.

    This is also a double-edged sword. For all those people who say this helps us, in the short term with Shorter and Lingard, it very well might. But keep in mind if those 2 are made immediately eligible, there's a good chance we see that immediately push a couple of transfers out. In this case, I think we come out ahead. But it's entirely possible that if this rule goes through, Emory Jones might decide he'd rather be the starter somewhere else than split time. That could leave us with a true freshman QB backing up Trask, which is not a good thing. Be careful what you ask for.
     
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  17. SeabudGator

    SeabudGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Advent/Orlando/UF health all serve to treat illnesses. They employ physicians, and conduct research. The united way and other charities on the list feed the needy, house the homeless, provide youth services for disadvantaged kids. These entities get donations for their causes.

    The NCAA earns revenue from selling a product. That doesn't seem like the United Way or the hospitals to me? The NCAA sends +$500M back to schools so they can pay nick saban about $10M/year and keeps other money so they can pay Mark Emmert $4M/year and pay $40M in legal fees? Do local YMCA directors make millions?

    Look, we both agree that the NCAA is tied to Universities, but I know of no other not for profit that is so run like a business or that grossly overpays executives without being called out (United way). The NCAA is many things, but calling it a charitable organization or not for profit puts form over substance, IMHO. The NCAA Racket: $10 Billion 'Non-Profit' Organization

    In any event, I believe you and I agree that the NCAA/schools brought this attack on themselves by making CFB a business to enrich people/schools, and the latest machinations are just players jockeying for a seat at the table.
     
  18. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I think you might be responding mostly to atlantagator86. I was just throwing in some facts regarding your question to him as to whether there were many $1B non-profit entities out there; there are. I guess I probably shouldn't have interjected into your conversation, just adding some pertinent data. No argument from me that most, if not all, of those organizations provide more back to humanity than football ever will.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2020
  19. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep, we are pretty much on the same page. There are a lot of other things they fund as well. The $560 is just to the Div 1 schools. They pay Div 2 schools as well and fund the basketball fund (which I assume is the NCAA tournament) a number of grants, funds and programs. And of course operations costs and huge legal fees, etc. And yes, a lot of not-for-profit organizations pay huge salaries to officers and board members. And they are starting to fund schools with higher graduation rates on top of that.

    But at the end of the day, most of the money the NCAA makes should be distributed. In 2017, when the NCAA had over $1 billion revenue, they ended with a $105 million surplus, which is roughly 10%. Still a lot of money but not what people would have you believe. I don't know what happens with that surplus money, but I don't think it's pocketed by anybody. My guess is that it ultimately funds new programs and/or is somehow funneled back to the schools as part of the next year's budget.

    But I think we can all agree that the NCAA is a total farce.
     
  20. GATOR_4Life

    GATOR_4Life GC Legend

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    It's in everybody's interest that rosters are close to 85 (130*85= 11050 scholarships available)...even if 85 itself is nearly impossible. Staying close was possible when programs only experienced 2-3 transfers per year, even this the late transfer season. However with the assumption that the total number of transfers is going up, a late transfer season is going to hurt. What I would want is to force transfer season earlier, so schools have a chance to react. Moving it to before NSD, allows the potential of a high school player to take a spot.

    It's not the only way to solve the problem
     
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