Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

NY cops retirement spike

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by Orange_and_Bluke, Jun 30, 2020.

  1. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

    6,756
    589
    698
    Apr 8, 2007
    I'll just use the same logic police defenders use ... "don't be a problem and you won't have a problem" ... something like that, right. Applies to cops, too, right.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Trickster

    Trickster Premium Member

    5,822
    1,372
    548
    Sep 20, 2014
    I think your post would have been better received had you not begun it with "all the anti cop liberals." Defunding police departments is a legitimate issue which can be discussed maturely, i.e., without an opening insult. The opening question is: what does defund even mean? Once we know that, we can discuss its merits. I think many see defund, their knees jerk and they form an opinion.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 2
  3. mutz87

    mutz87 #glassofwatergate VIP Member

    35,840
    3,051
    2,186
    Aug 30, 2014
    The first problem with her hypothesis is that she cannot rule out competing hypotheses, e.g. that a one-year spike is the result of the unrest itself OR other factors such as more motivated offenders coming of age that sparked a spike in violence.

    She cannot rule these things out because she didn't actually measure them, she wrote about it for popular consumption.

    Another problem is she shifts from Ferguson to applying this nationally or to other large cities, assuming that all PDs made changes in these cities that resulted in a spike in homicides or other violence. This is quite the faulty assumption

    This links to the other questionable assumption I touched upon earlier, that police have some absolute effect on crime such that de-policing ipso facto opened up the floodgates. Police have some effect on crime, but it's limited and the evidence is mixed and full of caveats.

    And here' the thing too abou Ferguson & national violence spikes. Ferguson's crime spike occurred during the same period that almost every large city and a lot of smaller ones experienced a spike in violence. But given that crime was at lows not seen since the 1960s, we'd be hard pressed to simply declare *de-policing* without even understanding why across these cities this occurred or distinguish it from simply being a short-lived variation in violent crime, as both the Ferguson graph and national graphs show.

    Notice the two years of decline nationally and three year decline for Ferguson.

    Ferguson MO-National Violent Crime Trends.JPG
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  4. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

    530
    173
    408
    Dec 16, 2015
    I do declare you could be correct. I look back at my posts and regret some of my phrasing. It’s something I’m working on.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
    • Friendly Friendly x 1
  5. mutz87

    mutz87 #glassofwatergate VIP Member

    35,840
    3,051
    2,186
    Aug 30, 2014
    I just ignore those parts of your comments. Write it off to a character flaw...though I appreciate you're *working on it* :D:D:D

    jk
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  6. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

    530
    173
    408
    Dec 16, 2015
    Lol...you have something in common with my wife.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  7. mutz87

    mutz87 #glassofwatergate VIP Member

    35,840
    3,051
    2,186
    Aug 30, 2014
    I can't help but see some irony since you've been disagreeing with me so much on this issue yet now you post about the very thing I've written to a bunch recently--even identifying the COPS program by name just the other day (sorry for quoting myself but...).

    To clarify, the article isn't about "more cops" i.e. "more police" per se but "more COPS" i.e. more police doing community policing and problem oriented policing. COPS is a DOJ run program to provide funding and training of local police in community and problem oriented policing and the use of police in targeted ways.

    One of the misconceptions about this is that people think policing as a binary i.e. more police=less crime/less police=more crime. This is faulty thinking. It's about how the police go about their job and what the effects are that is actually the crux.

     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  8. mutz87

    mutz87 #glassofwatergate VIP Member

    35,840
    3,051
    2,186
    Aug 30, 2014
    They all think the same, no matter the culture.

    My Japanese wife thinks I'm the biggest lout there is. I can never be right. :D
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  9. nolancarey

    nolancarey GC Hall of Fame

    2,129
    408
    333
    Aug 16, 2009
    The actual police would just keep the status quo, and the status quo ain't working so well.
     
  10. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

    530
    173
    408
    Dec 16, 2015
    I must of misunderstood you then. The article said more police were put on the street...admittedly I did a cursory glance at the article.
    I could have sworn it also said crime went down with more police out there.
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2020
    • Like Like x 1
  11. ncargat1

    ncargat1 VIP Member

    3,084
    1,510
    1,218
    Dec 11, 2009
    So, not trying to be a smart arse, but most groups that are referred to as minorities are referred to that way because the group that they belong to are a minority group in the greater whole. Thus, if minority groups are politically agitating for change through elections and representation, they have no chance. Thus the rioting, city take overs and the on-going civil disorder.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  12. mutz87

    mutz87 #glassofwatergate VIP Member

    35,840
    3,051
    2,186
    Aug 30, 2014
    All good. Yes, Ludwig and Donohue suggest this association, but the larger literature is mixed. Again, I point not to *more* but *how*

    Not to mention, serious property crime and violence started on the down-slope in many cities prior to the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, but there aren't many satisfactory explanations as to why.

    There's also this, not to be picayune, the number of police officers necessary to fill a single position 24/7/365 is at least 3 officers (assuming both 2 and 3 shift models) but more @ 4-6 officers. IOW a PD would need anywhere from 3-6 officers to fill a single slot 24/7/365.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  13. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

    3,560
    471
    378
    Aug 14, 2007
    Just because a bad cop did bad things, it doesn't mean he doesn't also do good things.
    Life is so much more complicated than good guy, bad guy.
    Unfortunately for those that choose to be cops, they are held to a higher standard.
    Or at least, they should be.
    So the good things don't wash away the bad things.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

    77,959
    46,667
    3,128
    Apr 3, 2007
    With the budget shortfalls, almost all of these cities/counties will be facing due to the COVID shutdowns, defunding the police was just made easier to do because they were going to have to cut budgets anyway.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  15. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

    1,231
    469
    423
    Aug 16, 2007
    Your first paragraph was my first thought. Article isn’t even worth debating.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. stingbb

    stingbb Premium Member

    3,370
    382
    393
    Apr 3, 2007
    The fact is the number of murders and other violent crimes have actually decreased each of the last three years in this country. To me that is a good thing although the number of violent crimes is obviously still way too high. Almost eight thousand blacks were murdered in 2018 and if people actually think that number will decrease by defunding police departments, well, I personally don’t agree.
     
  17. Trickster

    Trickster Premium Member

    5,822
    1,372
    548
    Sep 20, 2014
    That's odd - I'm working on the same thing. I'm old school and my knee jerk is to think defunding the police is a crazy idea. It could be the far left is going too far, but perhaps the old way of policing, and funding policing, could use reexamination.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  18. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Legend

    777
    154
    73
    Feb 6, 2020
    Yeh, I understand that but it seems the cities with the most significant problems with “policing of minority populations” are large urban areas governed by democrats, quite often progressives. One would think the citizens electing a liberal local government would find leaders who are a bit more “woke” and would have law enforcement agencies that reflected their woke progressive philosophy.

    I think everyone is looking for solutions in all the wrong places. They need to be looking at the people for whom they voted, many of who are incompetent, irresponsible, and more than willing to blame others for their failings.

     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
    • Like Like x 2
  19. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

    1,717
    695
    538
    Dec 4, 2015
    Georgia
    When I first saw the term "defund the police", I thought it was a ridiculous idea. Upon doing a little research, seems like most people simply mean funding the police less and shifting money to social services to better deal with problems that the police encounter but don't have the training to solve. Probably not the best choice of terms.
    I imagine there may be a few out there who think we should abolish police, but I would think they are a small minority.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  20. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

    1,717
    695
    538
    Dec 4, 2015
    Georgia
    The only way I would call to actually abolish the police is if I had these two heroes living next door. Only then, knowing they are well trained and clearly combat ready, could I sleep at night.
    Question: Is he wearing a 2 point sling like a "manzier"?

    SLP2020062814.jpg
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Disagree Disagree x 1