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Not just the QAnon storm this week

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by tampagtr, Nov 6, 2022.

  1. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Stay prepared

     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. 14serenoa

    14serenoa Living in Orange and surrounded by Seminoles... VIP Member

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    that's what we need more wind and rain.
     
  3. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    Let's see, coming in around West Palm, over to Tampa then up to Jacksonville before going back out into the Atlantic.
    A full tour of the state.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That one with the green triangles is super weird. I
     
  5. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    should create some tasty waves and some deadly riptides on the east coast and bring a lot of rain to Florida
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Wife listening to Mike of Mike’s Weather Page now. This thing could cause some grief
     
  7. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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  8. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Bug Tussle NC
    Spicoli? Is that you.
     
    • Funny Funny x 5
  9. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Looks like Thursday am, largely overnight, for Tampa
     
  10. Trickster

    Trickster VIP Member

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    Game still on I hope.
     
  11. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Supposed to be out of Florida impact by weekend, and don't know that the effect will be that great to impact scheduling, though there will likely be some power loss and flooding and many in SW Florida are still under tarp and the St. John's basin is still susceptible to heavy flooding
     
  12. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't think I've ever seen a wilder spaghetti model with so much consensus. Hopefully it doesn't make it out onto the gulf before turning back to the east.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. jeffbrig

    jeffbrig GC Hall of Fame

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    It makes sense when you think about what the true spaghetti/ensemble members do. They initialize various runs with different scenarios. You look at the expected contributions to steering currents, and you vary them in terms of strength and timing. What if that high builds in slower than expected? What if the low / cold front swoops down 12 hours earlier? When you start running these "what ifs", you get a wide range of answers, and you weigh and average what they're telling you to build a mostly likely forecast.

    In this particular case, we have an unusual setup where a storm is huge, disorganized, and expected to turn sharply WSW, and then turn sharply again back to the NE. Varying any of the steering inputs in terms of strength and timing would be expected to result in larger than normal variations in the predicted path. It's always tricky to model an anticipated change in direction.
     
  14. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    Definitely don't need any sort of wind event but I think North Florida could use a little rain.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. jeffbrig

    jeffbrig GC Hall of Fame

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    Just a handy reference I like to keep nearby:
    [​IMG]
     
    • Funny Funny x 5
  16. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, and the unusual setup here makes it kind of surprising the different models are so in agreement. When weird things are going into the setup for the model, I would expect less agreement in the outcomes. But in this case they are pretty much all in agreement about what is going to happen.
     
  17. jhenderson251

    jhenderson251 Premium Member

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    It's not enough of a troll for mother nature to throw a hurricane at Florida in November. She's got it out there drawing dick pics across the state.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  18. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    hmmm. flying into Tampa on Thur. afternoon.
     
  19. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL ... yeah, it looks it's a having a "sword fight" with florida... in the slang sense.
     
  20. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    [​IMG]