Not just the QAnon storm this week

that's what we need more wind and rain.

 

Let's see, coming in around West Palm, over to Tampa then up to Jacksonville before going back out into the Atlantic.
A full tour of the state.

 

That one with the green triangles is super weird. I

 

should create some tasty waves and some deadly riptides on the east coast and bring a lot of rain to Florida

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/AL172022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

Spicoli? Is that you.

 

Game still on I hope.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a wilder spaghetti model with so much consensus. Hopefully it doesn't make it out onto the gulf before turning back to the east.

 

It makes sense when you think about what the true spaghetti/ensemble members do. They initialize various runs with different scenarios. You look at the expected contributions to steering currents, and you vary them in terms of strength and timing. What if that high builds in slower than expected? What if the low / cold front swoops down 12 hours earlier? When you start running these "what ifs", you get a wide range of answers, and you weigh and average what they're telling you to build a mostly likely forecast.

In this particular case, we have an unusual setup where a storm is huge, disorganized, and expected to turn sharply WSW, and then turn sharply again back to the NE. Varying any of the steering inputs in terms of strength and timing would be expected to result in larger than normal variations in the predicted path. It's always tricky to model an anticipated change in direction.

 

Definitely don't need any sort of wind event but I think North Florida could use a little rain.

 

Just a handy reference I like to keep nearby:

 

Yes, and the unusual setup here makes it kind of surprising the different models are so in agreement. When weird things are going into the setup for the model, I would expect less agreement in the outcomes. But in this case they are pretty much all in agreement about what is going to happen.

 

It's not enough of a troll for mother nature to throw a hurricane at Florida in November. She's got it out there drawing dick pics across the state.

 

hmmm. flying into Tampa on Thur. afternoon.

 

LOL ... yeah, it looks it's a having a "sword fight" with florida... in the slang sense.