I think we have other options at S and probably won’t reach for one. Similarly at edge. Add an elite player but won’t reach. We have way too many on roster right now but that’ll work itself out after this season. RB - maybe that Utah commit that showed out at FNL if the coaches want two WR - all good as is DL and LB and CB seems feasible OL seems a tall order right now. But there’s a whole season left to identify a late bloomer. Hardest position to project too. I think we end up right at ten
Sometimes we get too tied up in the numbers. I don’t think it really matters. What matters is our class being in the same tier of the top classes, while filling holes, recruiting evenly, and getting the kids to buy in once they arrive.
Think we can get to 6-8, We have a few who could move up in rankings. Get 2 5stars hopefully at Dl,LB. Really like this class
Very much agreed. I never, ever hear any mention of "margin of error" on these rankings. The number of digits of precision crack me up. Looks like a gymnastics score. I bet a statistically sound treatment would have the error as +/- 10 spots.
I expect that once everything shakes out in December and February we will see that not a lot separates the 7 through 12 rankings, and the difference is more in the eye of the beholder than objective data that one class is better than the other. I will be happy with mostly blue chips and 5 that are in the top 100 range.
I have issues with some of the conclusions/premises drawn in that article. Firstly, rising a mere 2 or 3 spots in the current rankings isn't exactly "vaulting" into anything. In fact, it would be highly likely that we will do so with another strong pick up or two before the start of the season. Secondly, why do we even "need" a three-star S, or some of the others on that list, if the only object is a top ten class? I also suspect that the list of players cited as being currents targets is incomplete at best. And lastly, like it or not, we are going to have to show something on the field this year to demonstrate to the better recruits who are still on the fence, that the collapse that occurred last year was an aberration, and not the new norm for Gator football. Kids are impressionable. A few pleasant surprises (strong start, exciting offense, much improved defense, an unexpected flip or two) could result in a great class, regardless of what the final rankings say.
[QUOTE="lizardbreath, post: 14052507, member: 27841"And lastly, like it or not, we are going to have to show something on the field this year to demonstrate to the better recruits who are still on the fence, that the collapse that occurred last year was an aberration, and not the new norm for Gator football.[/QUOTE] And there we go!
Or 100 spots may be closer to accurate. So many are so far off. If they were correct, all 5* s would be first rounders. Many 5’s aren’t even drafted, that’s like being unranked..
Look at the teams who have won and played for NCs recently: Bama, UGA, LSU, Clemson, Ohio State. Pretty much consistent top 5 classes. No margin of error needed. Saban has won 6 NCs at Bama because he’a had 6 or more top ranked recruiting classes.
Totally agree but from a perception, momentum and branding point of view. Getting what is perceived as “a top ten class” would be outstanding momentum for Billy, and would be one step forward in becoming an “it” program. I also think it would build momentum for next year’s recruiting class. Then if we have a good season, surprise wins, play tough in defeat, even more momentum. It is all part of the process. I agree there isn’t much difference in the 8th ranked class and the 12th ranked class. But to build something meaningful(think brand - media buzz, future recruits)to compete with Ga, Ala, OSU, it would be a huge step forward in the “process” to be in the top ten. My two cents. “Wes Chandler was Percy Harvin before Percy Harvin was born.”
Until we recruit equally with those guys, we won’t be their equals on the field. Being satisfied with an 8th ranked class is being satisfied with being in that second tier. I’m not saying we shouldn’t be happy with being ranked 8th this year but we should expect better in the future. 10 win seasons should be the norm if we want to be considered a top program and anything less should get a coach fired. You basically play four ranked teams a year on the average and going 2-2 will get you ten wins without a bowl.
"Correlation does not imply causation" etc. It's just possible the cause Bama's results include class rank but just maybe, in addition to other reasons. LSU is interesting inclusion in the list. #3 in 2021, #5 in 2020 and 2019. No playoff appearances since their only trip in 2019 season. Counterfactuals for those in Top 5: 2017: USC/Michigan/FSU (Clemson 16) 2018: Texas/USC (Clemson 7) 2019: Texas/A&M/LSU (Clemson 10) I think your point is mainly: Bama. Perhaps Ohio State a bit, maybe some Georgia. Clemson is out of the top five as often as in it. In 2020, #5 was 294.92. #6 was 289.26. First, you're going to tell me they are accurate to 5 points of precision? And, the difference was 1.8%. Really? Not buying that margin of error. #8 to #9: 273.25 vs. 273.10. #10 to #11: 262.70 vs. 261.30. Not buying it.
Clemson won 2 national titles without a single top 5 class I believe. You have to have players and depth of a similar caliber. But assigning a team recruiting ranking is very subjective
Yep, at this point in our recruiting a top 5 or better would be a great signing class. And a top 5 is NOT unrealistic now. That is... if we're all talking about rankings as being totally accurate predictors of talent.
Totally agree, virtually impossible to differentiate the top classes. A class can easily be skewed up or down by one or two players who are over or under rated. Meeting needs and class balance is crucial. Not to mention, if you just flat out compared classes I can guarantee none of us could really tell much of a differnce between the 7th and 12th classes
